Recently, statistics from the China Machinery Industry Federation show that the economic operation of the machinery industry was generally stable from January to May 2018, in line with expectations.
First, the growth rate of added value is slightly increased month by month.
Industrial added value: The added value of machinery industry increased by 8.4% from January to May, down 2.3 percentage points from the growth rate of the same period of last year (10.7%), 2.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate in 2017, 1.5 percentage points higher than the national industry. And showed a slight upward trend from month to month (7.0% in January and February, 7.6% in January-March, 8.3% in January-April, and 8.4% in January-May).
Second, the output of major products achieved steady growth
From January to May, among the 120 major products monitored by the machinery industry, 80 kinds of products increased year-on-year, accounting for 66.67%; 40 products were down year-on-year, accounting for 33.33%. 16 of them were from the previous year. The decline turned to year-on-year growth, and the output of 27 products changed from the previous year's growth to the same year-on-year decline.
Recent changes in the output of major products in the machinery industry
(119 species in 2017, 120 species in 2018)
|
| Year-on-year increase in the number of varieties (species) | Accounting (%) | among them :Growth in double digits (species) | Accounting (%) | Year-on-year decline in varieties (species) | Accounting (%) |
| 2017year 1-2month | 88 | 73.95 | 47 | 39.46 | 31 | 26.05 |
| 1-3month | 90 | 75.63 | 51 | 42.86 | 29 | 24.37 |
| 1-4month | 88 | 73.95 | 48 | 40.34 | 31 | 26.05 |
| 1-5month | 91 | 76.47 | 40 | 33.61 | 28 | 23.53 |
| 1-6month | 94 | 78. 99 | 46 | 38.66 | 25 | 21.01 |
| 1-7month | 92 | 77.31 | 45 | 37.82 | 27 | 22.69 |
| 1-8month | 91 | 76.47 | 45 | 37.82 | 28 | 23.53 |
| 1-9month | 90 | 75.63 | 49 | 41.18 | 29 | 24.37 |
| 1-10month | 91 | 76.47 | 43 | 36.13 | 28 | 23.53 |
| 1-11month | 88 | 73.95 | 44 | 36.97 | 31 | 26.05 |
| 1-12month | 88 | 73.95 | 44 | 36.97 | 31 | 26.05 |
| 2018year 1-2month | 78 | 67.24 | 48 | 41.39 | 38 | 32.76 |
| 1-3month | 84 | 70 | 42 | 35 | 36 | 30 |
| 1-4month | 80 | 66.67 | 47 | 39.17 | 40 | 33.34 |
| 1-5month | 80 | 66.67 | 45 | 37.5 | 40 | 33.34 |
Third, the benefits will continue to grow, and the contribution rate of non-automotive industries will rise.
Main business income: From January to May, the machinery industry realized the main business income of 926.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the same period of last year, which was 1.12 percentage points higher than the national industry. The office equipment industry fell by 1.68% year-on-year.
Total profit: From January to May, the machinery industry realized a total profit of 605.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.81%, which was 7.5 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the same period of the previous year, which was 10.71 percentage points lower than the national industry in the same period.
The profit of three industries decreased year-on-year. The agricultural machinery industry decreased by 11.97% year-on-year, the cultural office equipment industry decreased by 30.17%, and the robot and smart manufacturing decreased by 14.67% year-on-year. Heavy machinery, the automobile industry changed from 1-4 months to year-on-year growth ( 0.13%, 0.34%).
The contribution rate of industries outside the automobile increased. Among the new main business income of the whole industry, the automobile industry accounted for 36.66%, down 1.13 percentage points from the previous year; the electrical and electronic industry accounted for 23.58%, up 5.22 percentage points from the previous year; Other industries outside the automotive industry accounted for a total of 63.34%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points over the previous year.
Among the new profits in the whole industry, the contribution rate of the automobile industry was only 2.76%, and the contribution rate of the non-automotive industry was 97.24%, which was significantly higher than that of the previous year.
Comparison of main indicators growth rate from January to May 2018, January-May 2017
|
| Main business income growth rate% | Realize profit growth% | ||||
| 2018year 1-5month | 2017year 1-5month | Year-on-year increase or decrease percentage point | 2018year 1-5month | 2017year 1-5month | Year-on-year increase or decrease percentage point | |
| Machinery industry | 11.3 | 11.1 | 0.2 | 5.81 | 13.31 | -7.5 |
| Of which: Non-automotive industry | 11.55 | 10.58 | 0.97 | 10.62 | 15.89 | -5.27 |
| Agricultural machinery | 2.24 | 11.14 | -8.9 | -11.97 | 8.72 | -20.69 |
| internal combustion engine | 6.04 | 21.68 | -15.64 | 11.12 | 66.59 | -55.47 |
| engineering | 26.82 | 15.45 | 11.37 | 59.92 | 107.73 | -47.81 |
| Instrumentation | 9.16 | 14.08 | -4.92 | 3.23 | 37.61 | -34.38 |
| Office | -1.68 | 5.05 | -6.73 | -30.17 | 15.27 | -45.44 |
| Petrochemical | 12.8 | 11.09 | 1.71 | 18.72 | 12.24 | 6.48 |
| Heavy | 11.54 | 10.44 | 1.1 | 0.13 | 14.65 | -14.52 |
| machine tool | 13.64 | 12.1 | 1.54 | 22.49 | 24.73 | -2.24 |
| electrician | 12.05 | 8.64 | 3.41 | 9.95 | 6.09 | 3.86 |
| Basic piece | 9.86 | 11.95 | -2.09 | 8.82 | 15.63 | -6.81 |
| food | 11.67 | 10.17 | 1.5 | 36.14 | -4.74 | 40.88 |
| car | 10.9 | 12.06 | -1.16 | 0.34 | 9.99 | -9.65 |
| Robotics and smart manufacturing | 5.89 |
| - | -14.67 |
| - |
| other | 8.37 | 8.89 | -0.52 | 3.91 | 8.35 | -4.44 |
Fourth, the operating efficiency of the whole industry needs to be improved
From January to May 2018, there were 87,309 enterprises above designated size in the machinery industry, and 16,794 loss-making enterprises. The loss-making face of the loss-making enterprises was 19.24%, up 1.18 percentage points year-on-year, and down 4.23 percentage points from the loss in the first quarter (23.47%).
1. The operating efficiency of the whole industry needs to be improved. The value-added rate of machinery industry's capital preservation is 108.85 in January-May; the profit margin of main business income is 6.53%, down 0.34 percentage points year-on-year; the cost expense profit rate is 6.98%, down 0.38 percentage points year-on-year; The asset turnover rate was 1.62 times, down 0.01 times year-on-year; the total asset profit rate was 6.58%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year.
2. Financial expenses rose rapidly. From January to May, the management expenses of machinery industry increased by 10.83% year-on-year, and financial expenses increased by 10.1% year-on-year. Among them, interest expenses increased by 15.52% year-on-year, which was 2.53, 8.78, 14.37 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the same period of last year. However, the company's sales expenses increased by 10.45% year-on-year, which was 0.24 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year. There was no significant change in the production and operation activity of enterprises.
3. Accounts receivable are still relatively high. From January to May, the accounts receivable of machinery industry increased by 11.25% year-on-year, and the total current assets increased by 11.76% year-on-year. The pressure on accounts receivable on corporate liquidity is increasing.
V. The investment downturn has improved
From January to May 2018, the whole society's fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 2,164.3 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, manufacturing investment increased by 5.2% year-on-year, and machinery industry general equipment manufacturing investment increased by 2.1% year-on-year. The manufacturing industry grew by 10.3% year-on-year, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 7.4%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 7.8%, the investment growth rate steadily rose month by month, and the investment situation improved slightly.
Sixth, foreign trade, exports continue to grow
From January to March, the total import and export of machinery industry was 181.2 billion US dollars, up 16.02% year-on-year. Of which, imports were 79.3 billion US dollars, up 17.38% year-on-year, and exports were 101.9 billion US dollars, up 14.99% year-on-year. The trade surplus was 22.6 billion US dollars. The import and export of the industry has grown in all proportions, except for the cultural office equipment industry, which has exceeded double-digit growth. Imports: All sub-sectors except the agricultural machinery industry have double-digit growth. Exports: 13 industries have achieved growth, of which 11 industries have two increase.
Seven, the price rise space is very limited, conduction difficulties
From the price index released by the National Bureau of Statistics in May 2018, the ex-factory price of industrial producers rose by 4.1% year-on-year in May, the price of production materials rose by 5.4% year-on-year, the price of raw materials industry rose by 7.4%, and the price of processing industry rose by 4.4%. The producer price index is on the rise. In May, the general equipment of the machinery industry rose by 1.7% year-on-year, special equipment rose by 1.3% year-on-year, the automobile manufacturing price index rose by 0.3% year-on-year, and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry rose by 0.9% year-on-year. The manufacturing industry fell by 0.6% year-on-year, which was far below the rebound of the industrial producers' ex-factory price index.
Comprehensive analysis and judgment: It is expected that the economic operation of machinery industry will be relatively stable in the whole year of 2018, but the growth rate will be lower than that in 2017, industrial added value, main business income, and profit growth rate of around 7%. Growth, growth rate will be lower than 2017.
Source: Department of Statistics and Information, China Machinery Industry Federation