Recently, Beijing, Tianjin Vantage Gas Appliances Co., Ltd. was seized by the court, the news of the loss of the second largest dealer of Vantage broke out, causing a huge earthquake in the stock price of Vantage. After experiencing a daily limit, the price of Vantage was on the market on July 3. Once again, it fell below 9%, and once returned to 'before liberation'. Coincidentally, as a hard-working brother of kitchen electric stocks, Boss Electric also struggled in the shadow of the stock price 'scarred bones' and returned to the level of the second half of 2016.
For the sharp decline of the two major kitchen electric stocks, the triggering reasons are all incidents, such as the boss's electric appliance executives reduce the cash, causing market dissatisfaction, Vantage dealers lost contact, superimposed A-share risk aversion, but undoubtedly reflects the kitchen The overall environment of the power industry is weak.
The negative growth trend of kitchen appliances in the first half has been set
In 2017, the overall size of China's kitchen electric appliance industry reached 96.8 billion yuan. The high growth for several years can be described as 'flame cooking oil', which attracted everyone to look forward to and enter the industry. In early 2018, Zhong Yikang predicted that if it was in accordance with the average annual With a double-digit increase, the kitchen appliance industry will cross the threshold of 100 billion in 2018, and it will enter the 150 billion scale. However, with the performance of the first half of the kitchen appliance in 2018, Zhongyikang adjusted its forecast to 115 billion yuan. about.
In terms of time-phase, in the first quarter of 2018, the kitchen appliance industry experienced the first negative growth in recent years. The offline retail sales of range hoods, gas stoves and disinfection cabinets increased by -16.7%, -7.5%, -11.9%, respectively. The offline encounter is 'extremely cold', even the expected spring home improvement season together with the 3.15 promotion has not brought enough stimulus to the market; at the same time, the online market growth rate has slowed further, taking the smoke stove as an example, the online market The growth rate of retail sales was 20.0%, 25.9%, and the growth rate fell to less than 30%. The online market development encountered bottlenecks caused by weakening traffic dividends and relatively low product prices. From the overall retail sales of the kitchen appliance market, The overall revenue of 12.8 billion yuan fell by 6.1% year-on-year, and the retail volume was 13.66 million units, down 3.3% year-on-year.
From April to May, this situation continued. In fact, Shi Ting, general manager of Zhongyi Kang's kitchen and electric business division, used the word 'difficulty' to define the overall performance of the kitchen appliance market in the first half of 2018. She pointed out that As the growth rate narrowed, the overall market for kitchen appliances was in a cold situation. 'Based on the market performance of Wuyi, the retail sales under the smoke stove consumption line increased by -9.6%, -8.3& and -12.5%, respectively. The increase was 9.7%, 3.5% and -15.2% respectively. This situation did not change until the arrival of the 6.18 big promotion. However, according to the information disclosed by the industry monitoring agencies, the purchase of consumers during the mid-year promotion period Passion is still not as good as in previous years.
Shi Ting believes that the kitchen electricity market is still mainly based on new demand, and the proportion of replacement demand is still low. The new market corresponds to the sales of existing homes in the past six months to one year. National Bureau of Statistics data shows that 2015, 2016 The sales growth of existing homes in the country is above 20%. In the first quarter of 2017, the sales of existing homes increased by 1.7% year-on-year. However, with the introduction of strict control policies for many real estates, the sales area of existing homes in 2017 fell by 2.2% year-on-year, entering 2018. The trend of tight real estate growth is still continuing. This impact will continue to be transmitted to the kitchen appliance market. In Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the overall sales volume of the Pearl River Delta has shown a downward trend. Take the case of Vantage as an example, there is analysis People believe that the dealer's 'running road' and sales pressure is too large, stocks are overstocked, and the pressure on funds is too big. Vantage's quarterly report shows that Vantage should receive 1.424 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 23% year-on-year; The profit was 115 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50%. The company expects a profit of 3.07-354 million yuan in the first half of 2018, a year-on-year increase of 30%-50%. However, with the fermentation of 'event', some financial people believe that Vantage adopts agency sales agency mode. With the delivery as the basis for sales, the risk of slow sales is passed on to the dealers, so the real growth rate may be overestimated.
The other kitchen power company, the boss's first quarter report revenue is also slightly lower than market expectations. The first quarter achieved 1.593 billion yuan, an increase of 16.89%, net profit reached 302 million yuan, an increase of 20.05% - compared to the past 40% The growth rate around is not what it used to be.
Similarly, in the survey of Midea Group disclosed by China Merchants Securities, it shows that the overall income of the United States in January-May increased by about 15% year-on-year, and the growth rate of the original US business was 15-20%. Among them, air-conditioning is the backbone, with a growth rate of 30%; Ice washing increased by 10%; only kitchen and small household appliances grew flatly, 'kitchen electricity was affected by industry sentiment, channel inventory and price increase factors, and fell slightly', and industry sentiment was ranked first in negative factors.
Competition has intensified
The restriction of real estate factors not only affects the growth of traditional smoke stove consumption products, but also the suppression effect is also reflected in the emerging categories such as dishwashers, embedded micro-boiled and baked. In 2017, the overall growth rate of dishwashers was 129%, but to 2018. In the first half of the year, the growth rate dropped sharply, up 28.8% year-on-year. The overall scale was 1.73 billion yuan, of which the online scale was 630 million, up 76.6% year-on-year; the offline size was 1.14 billion, up 12% year-on-year. The overall revenue of the microwave oven industry decreased by 2.3%. %; embedded oven growth rate of 0.7% in the first half of the year, the scale of 1.18 billion; embedded steamer increased by 3.3% year-on-year, the scale reached 1.14 billion. Ao Wei kitchen electric business director Yang Wei believes that the consumer group of embedded kitchen appliances is mainly concentrated In the more developed regions of the second- and second-tier economies, the constraints of real estate have had a greater impact on them.
Under the general trend of slowing growth in the first and second-tier markets, many kitchen appliances brands have set their sights on the third- and fourth-tier markets. It is reported that in 2017, the retail sales of home appliances in the third- and fourth-tier markets reached 485.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Retail sales exceeded the urban market for the first time.
However, as everyone has turned their attention to this market, the competition among brands has also extended from the first- and second-tier markets. In a small county town of less than 500,000 in Hebei Province, it has spread all over Fang Tai, Midea, Haier, Vantage, Siemens, Germany and Italy, Jiuyang and other large and small kitchen appliances store, in addition to the active layout of Jingdong and Suning Tesco and other e-commerce direct stores, local traditional home appliances store. A shop owner said: 'As long as you want to buy, We have everything here. ' However, he also revealed that in the county market, consumers are still the most basic smoke products, 'If you move to the building, you must have a range hood and gas stove; It doesn't matter in the bungalow. However, now that you don't want to burn coal, you can either use electricity or use gas. If you choose a gas stove, you will get more.' And when it comes to the idea of upgrading kitchen appliances, he mentioned that 'Disinfection cabinets, dishwashers and other products we will stock, but sales are few.'