Taiwan market research firm TrendForce has studied the wide-ranging impact of China's new PV strategy. Analysts said on Tuesday: 'In the face of oversupply, Chinese PV module manufacturers will seek ways to export excess products and even sell their products to overseas markets.' They are also concerned about the changing trend of global prices.
Using Trina Solar to illustrate the price competitiveness of China's PV modules in the European market, TrendForce said that if the manufacturer's product price is 0.25 US dollars per watt, then the market price will be 0.39 US dollars per watt, including 56.2% anti-dumping And countervailing duties. The company said: 'This market price will still be lower than other products in the European market.' At the same time, in the United States, China's PV module tariffs as high as 72.54%, Trina Solar's products per watt price For $0.43, it is still 'slightly competitive'.
Further reduction
Energytrend estimates that more than 70% of the global PV module production capacity is in China. 'If Chinese PV module manufacturers start to sell, global PV module prices will be lower. The impact of the sell-off on the global PV industry is expected to continue until 2019.
IHS Markit also expects PV module prices to fall further in the third quarter due to overcapacity and oversupply. This will affect the financial position of the entire PV supply chain.
Independent market analyst Corrine Lin said, 'China's polysilicon suppliers are panicked. Multi-chip oversupply is particularly serious. Even if polysilicon prices are high for a long time, they have fallen sharply, as do battery and PV module prices.
Demand
Overall, Melkonyan expects demand in the fourth quarter will be stronger than in the second quarter of 2018, and prices will gradually stop falling. But according to his prediction, manufacturers' profit margins have dropped to extremely low levels, which will force some companies to give up. Their business, or file for bankruptcy.
'This is not only related to secondary and small manufacturers, but also to leading manufacturers. Most announced capacity expansion plans will be suspended or may be abandoned altogether. However, cost and technology leaders still insist on expansion to achieve their goals. , for example, increase market share as demand increases or production costs are reduced by economies of scale.'
'We expect the market to have multiple consolidations and believe that there will be signs of recovery in the fourth quarter as global demand is still growing, especially in many Asian markets,'
Surge
Melkonyan said that the global solar industry has experienced a surge in the past decade due to (trade) political barriers, unequal supply and demand, price uncertainty and extreme competition. These factors will continue to play a role in the next few years. In the long run IHS Markit expects corporate consolidation and consolidation to end in a stable situation, with the remaining companies having greater capacity and the best technology.
