According to the latest survey by Jibang New Energy Network, after the new PV policy in mainland China is issued, in the face of the tightening domestic demand market, China's component products with overcapacity must look overseas to the sea, or even exclude overseas sales. Therefore, components When the price will fall to a low point, and when EPC manufacturers can purchase orders, become the focus of the recent global PV industry.
Take the Taiwan regional market as an example. The high-efficiency component incentive policy that has been implemented in the past two years aims to ensure that Taiwanese components have certain competitive advantages in Taiwan. Therefore, it is proposed at the system side to use the VPC high-performance components of the QC. , you can enjoy the reward of 6% of the purchase price.
However, EnergyTrend uses 100KW case capacity and roof aluminum bracket tile to make a calculation. If an efficient component with 6% bonus price is used, the component price will decrease by 2% for each US$0.10/W decrease. If the general components are used, the current IRR will be 15~16% based on the current selling price of USD$0.25~0.30/W.
On the other hand, if high-efficiency components are used and the IRR is also 15 to 16% level, the price of the high-efficiency component must be reduced to USD$0.36/W. But for the component factory, in addition to being sent to the Bid High test fees must also maintain a quotation of existing profits, so it is difficult to push prices to this level. It can be seen that even if the low-cost components in mainland China cannot obtain 6% reward, the price is still more than the local components in Taiwan. Have an advantage.
As for the European market, it is assumed that the price of overseas low-priced components is USD$0.25/W, and the tax rate is based on Trina Solar, a mainland Chinese factory that has been deployed overseas for a long time, with 56.2% double anti-tax, The component is priced at USD$0.39/W, which is still lower than the local market price. In the US, the double anti-tax total is as high as 72.54%, but the low-priced component includes the price after tax only USD$0.43/W, which is sold with local US components. The price is not far away, so it still retains certain competitiveness.
EnergyTrend pointed out that China's component production capacity in the global market share has exceeded 70%, if the supply of surplus low-priced components overseas, will cause global component prices to fall, it is expected that the impact of this dumping on global market prices will continue until The second quarter of 2019.
