Recently, the Sino-US trade war has escalated again. The State Council Customs Tariff Commission issued a notice deciding to impose a 25% tariff on 659 items of approximately US$50 billion worth of imported goods originating in the United States, including the primary shape.<0.94的聚乙烯，主要是低密度聚乙烯(LDPE)。
China's LDPE products rely heavily on imports. In 2017, the total import volume was 2.374 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate was 52.8%. Nearly half of the products were imported. I believe that due to the new tariff policy, the import volume of LDPE from the US is expected to decrease, but from India. Imports from Iran are expected to increase, and the overall import pattern will change.
In 2017, China imported 155,000 tons of LDPE from the United States, accounting for 6.5% of the total. In recent years, the US shale gas revolution has made the new ethane cracker a trend, and the downstream polyethylene plant will be in the next few years. A large number of launches. According to incomplete statistics, Dow DuPont's 350,000 ton/year LDPE unit in Louisiana has been in production in the first quarter of this year; Formosa Plastics' 400,000 ton/year LDPE unit in Texas, Sassoo is located in Louisiana. The 420,000 tons/year LDPE unit will be put into operation this year and next. Due to the loose supply of polyethylene in North America, most of the new capacity will be used for export. However, the increase in tariffs will curb US export growth expectations for China.
At the same time, the import volume of Indian goods is expected to increase. In 2017, China imported LDPE from India only 0.42 million tons, accounting for 0.2% of total imports. Entering 2018, due to India's Xincheng's 400,000 tons in Jamnagar / The LDPE unit was put into production in the fourth quarter of last year, and Indian products began to flood into the Chinese market. In the first quarter of this year, LDPE imports from India soared to 44,000 tons, ranking higher than the US. With the stable production of Indian devices, and the United States Imports are blocked, and India’s exports to China will remain relatively stable.
In addition, Iran's supply is expected to increase further. The country's ANDIMESHKDE 300,000 tons / year LDPE unit will be put into operation in the second half of this year, is expected to further increase exports to China, supplementing the supply gap from the United States.