Wu Yating, senior research associate of DRAMeXchange, pointed out that in the second quarter of the year, various suppliers gradually switched to 1X or 1Y nano-processes, although there were successive reports that the yield was not stable or the quality of the products was doubtful, but compared with the first quarter. However, the growth of the supply quarter is still 3.2%. However, as far as the buyer is concerned, since the inventory has not yet reached the safe water level, there is still a relatively stable pulling momentum, which drives the overall average price of DRAM to show a slight quarterly growth.
Looking forward to the third quarter, as the proportion of 1X or 1Y nanometers will continue to increase, DRAMeXchange estimates that the growth of supply in the third quarter is expected to reach 4.8%, but DRAM prices will continue to rise slightly, supported by demand in peak season. Driven the third quarter DRAM total output value continued to record high.
High-end mobile phones and data centers support mainstream demand;
From the product category, the third quarter DRAM price increase was mainly driven by server memory and mobile memory. The demand for server memory was steadily higher than that of the second quarter, so the price of mainstream server modules shipped to the first-line factory is still 1-2. % upside. However, due to the increase in the fulfillment rate to the beginning of this year, the price increase is limited, and the third quarter server memory will not be much different from the second-line factory.
In terms of mobile memory, the price increase is mainly supported by the adoption of high-end mobile phones in high-capacity LPDDR4. The recent launch of high-end mobile phones has increased the DRAM capacity to 6GB or even 8GB, making the LPDDR4 series separate. (Discrete) or eMCP supply is tight. It is expected that the overall mobile memory price in the third quarter will have a 1-2% increase under the leadership of high-end models.
While graphics memory and niche memory are affected by the sudden drop in cryptocurrency demand, the original estimated gains may have completely disappeared. In particular, the memory prices experienced a surge in prices in the first half of the year, which may cause prices to fall in the second half of the year.
DRAM prices continued to rise in the second half of the year, but the increase continued to converge.
Overall, although the growth of the 10 nm level is not as obvious as the previous generation, as the suppliers are introduced in the first half of this year, they will continue to contribute to the growth of the next few quarters. In the following six months, DRAMeXchange believes that although demand is expected to remain stable under the support of the peak season, it has been observed that the price increase is getting smaller and smaller, and it is more likely to face a flat situation in the fourth quarter of this year.