In the first half of this year, crude oil prices fluctuated and environmental protection inspectors continued to tighten. The chemical market did not continue its trend of growth last year. Statistics show that among the major chemical products monitored, 56 were up, down 98.
In the first half of the year when the trend was not as good as expected, which chemical products are still good? Which chemical products are showing signs of fatigue? Which products are fluctuating? Which products are stable? Specially launched the '2018 Chemical Market Mid-Inventory' series of reports, to readers.
In the first half of this year, among the 56 major chemical products with rising prices, hexamethylenediamine, industrial naphthalene and acrylonitrile were particularly eye-catching. In particular, hexamethylenediamine rose by 147.3% in the first half of the year, hitting a record high.
Hexamethylenediamine: Giants stop production and soar
Since the beginning of this year, the market for hexamethylene diamine has started to soar. The monthly increase is around 1,000 yuan (ton price, the same below). The price has risen from 27,700 yuan at the beginning of the year to 68,500 yuan at the end of June, with a gain of 147.3%. In the first place.
'The hexamethylene diamine market has started to soar, and the international crude oil price is high. Foreign giants are shut down due to force majeure, and the downstream demand has increased sharply. ' Henan Junhua specializes in fine chemicals sales department manager Zhang Ying said.
The tight supply is an important reason for the price increase of hexamethylenediamine. The market concentration of hexamethylene diamine is relatively high, and several international giants dominate the market. Since this year, Aoshengde, INVISTA and BASF have suffered force majeure. As a result, the market supply is extremely tight and the price is rising. Recently, due to electrical accidents, BASF's ethylene diamine plant has stopped all production, or will increase the supply shortage of hexamethylene diamine.
According to Zhang Ying, hexamethylene diamine is produced by hydrogenation of adiponitrile, and the production cost of adiponitrile is closely related to oil price. Since this year, international oil prices have fluctuated upward. WTI crude oil futures prices rose from 60.37 US dollars per barrel on January 3. As of June 28th at $73.45 per barrel, Brent crude oil futures prices rose from $66.49 per barrel on January 3 to $77.85 per barrel on June 28. International crude oil prices remained high and US natural gas prices rose , to a large extent increased the production cost of adiponitrile, forming support for hexamethylenediamine.
In addition, the sharp increase in demand has also brought lift to the hexamethylene diamine market. The application field of hexamethylenediamine has been rapidly expanded. In addition to the production of traditional nylon 66 and nylon 610, it can also be used to produce transparent nylon resin. Amine carboxylate foam plastics, coatings, adhesives, rubber auxiliaries, and stabilizers for the textile and paper industry, bleaching agents. This year, the demand for these industries has steadily increased, and there is also a certain driving effect on the hexamethylene diamine market. . Zhang Ying said.
Industrial naphthalene: demand is pushing up
In the first half of the year, the domestic industrial naphthalene market showed a turbulent upward trend, with an average increase of about 40% from January to June.
Wei Jianyang, a senior trader, believes that there are three reasons for the fluctuation of the industrial naphthalene market.
First, environmental factors have led to tight resources. The environmental protection high pressure situation has not been relaxed since the beginning of the year, resulting in the coking enterprises operating rate has not been able to effectively improve. Coal tar resources are tight, leading to slow growth of industrial naphthalene output, directly promoting the overall market up.
Second, demand has shown a steady recovery. Compared with the same period of last year, the operating rates of downstream phthalic anhydride, water reducer, dyes and other industries have improved significantly in the first half of this year, and the demand for industrial naphthalene has shown a recovery growth, which is also the main reason for determining the trend of the market. driving force.
The third is the speculation factor. The industrial naphthalene market in the first half of the year created better conditions for the profitability of traders. Many traders who had previously suspended operations rejoined the speculation team.
According to the person in charge of coal tar deep processing enterprises in Henan, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and other places, some incidental factors also contributed to the trend of industrial naphthalene market in the first half of the year. For example, the pace of chemical enterprises moving into the park is accelerating, and some small coal tar deep processing enterprises Exiting the market. In addition, Sino-US trade friction also promoted the market volatility.
Acrylonitrile: Supply tightens to support the rally
In the first half of the year, the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated all the way, rising from 13,400 yuan at the beginning of the year to about 16,600 yuan, up 3,200 yuan.
Wang Chunming, general manager of Ruiyang Chemical Trading Co., Ltd. said that the important factor contributing to the rise of acrylonitrile is the tight supply. From the specific market situation in the first half of the year, the larger increase in the acrylonitrile market occurred in January and May. The market swept the end of 2017 and began to bottom out. The price of the East China market rose from RMB 132,000 at the beginning of the month to RMB 1.51 million. The main reason was that the stocking mood in the downstream festival was warming up, and the market spot was scarce, causing a wave of growth.
In addition, the maintenance plans for acrylonitrile production enterprises were released at the end of March, and the number of maintenance devices reached a peak in the second quarter. Due to tight supply, the price of acrylonitrile rose from 14,300 yuan on April 2 to 16,300 yuan on May 2. 4 ~ In mid-June, the domestic acrylonitrile maintenance capacity was 792,000 tons/year, and the operating rate decreased by 8.72% compared with the same period of last year.
'In addition to the positive supply side, raw material support is also an important factor.' Wang Chunming said that in April, Shenchi Chemical and Jingbo Petrochemical dehydrogenation units were shut down for maintenance, and the inventory of the manufacturers remained at a low level. The market began to surge sharply.
However, limited downstream capacity has been a drag on the acrylonitrile market.
The biggest drop in the first half of the year occurred in March, down 1400 yuan from the previous month, mainly due to the downstream resistance to high-priced supply. As the ex-factory price of acrylonitrile increased in tandem, the downstream reduced production pressure to alleviate the cost pressure, resulting in reduced demand.
Specifically, acrylic fiber manufacturers continue to work low, demand is weak, coupled with imported goods to Hong Kong, low prices impact the spot market. ABS, procurement enthusiasm is relatively low, more than just to maintain procurement. Acrylamide, polyether polyols, pesticide intermediates, 2. Brominated bromine and other environmental supervision inspectors, reducing production or suspending production for rectification, especially against high-priced raw materials.
In short, the supply of acrylonitrile in the first half of the year has helped the market to rise, but demand has dragged down the market. In the long and short game, it has the advantage, and it has achieved the performance of the first half of the year.