■ Hot prospects
After a brief silence, the chip concept came back. Last week, the market adjusted by 8.53%, the first to press the warm start button. Last Friday, the two cities rose across the board, the chip index continued to attract capital attention, thus recording a 5.5% one-day gain. The industry believes that in addition to 5G, the Internet of Things, AI and other indispensable parts of semiconductor products, it has already been upgraded to the national strategic level. Recently, semiconductor silicon wafers are still in short supply, and wafer prices are expected to rise quarter by quarter, showing semiconductors. The industry continues to be in a high-profile situation. The medium- and long-term investment opportunities in the chip localization sector have arrived.
Wafer price is bullish
In the first quarter of 2018, China's integrated circuits continued to maintain rapid growth, with sales reaching 115.29 billion yuan, up 20.8% year-on-year. Currently, the second phase of the 'big fund' is also being raised, and the scale is expected to reach 150 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan.
The application of integrated circuits is promising. It is a typical 'small industry, big opportunity', and downstream covers automotive, photovoltaic, industrial, consumer and other fields. From the demand side, photovoltaic, consumer electronics growth is stable, and with new energy vehicles And the promotion of autonomous driving, the automotive electronics market is about to break out, and the demand is also greatly increased.
Guojin Securities (6.860, -0.25, -3.52%) analyst Tang Chuan believes that since 2017, MLCC, chip resistance, aluminum electrolytic capacitors and other products have been raised several times, mainly because the Japanese factory will transfer conventional production capacity to high-end vehicles. And industrial products, conventional products have a supply gap, superimposed consumer electronics and automotive electronics demand and raw material price pressure transmission, leading to MLCC prices continue to increase. Chip resistance out of stock is also more and more serious, on the one hand environmental protection, limited production, another On the other hand, the substrate manufacturers are reluctant to expand due to the serious losses, resulting in insufficient supply, and the demand for superposition has increased substantially, and thus the shortage of goods has spread.
According to the agency's forecast, the price increase of power semiconductor devices in the second half of the year is still severe. In recent years, the demand for MOSFETs in rail transit, power grids, new energy vehicles, and charging stations is gradually expanding. The demand for drones, wearables and IOT equipment is also increasing. In the growth, but the supply does not expand in the same proportion, the European and American companies are still compressing the production capacity. In 2017, the large demand for memory chips and fingerprint identification chips has led to the rapid transfer of production capacity of 12-inch, 8-inch and 6-inch wafers, resulting in power semiconductors. The shortage of devices.
Domestic substitution based on exposure
The semiconductor industry is a highly technical and capital-intensive industry. China relies on policy support, capital investment, overlapping engineer bonuses, accumulating technical experience and talent reserves, narrowing the gap with foreign countries, and gradually occupying the strategic high ground.
On June 18, Jingdong Group and Google announced that Google will invest in Jingdong for US$550 million in cash, and the two sides will form a wide-ranging strategic partnership. Google and JD will cooperate on a series of strategic projects, one of which is Including a number of regions in the world including Southeast Asia, the United States and Europe to develop retail solutions. In addition, Zhongchang Data (13.730, -0.20, -1.44%) 1 billion acquisition of Yunke Technology, to create a global digital marketing network, its customers Groups include Jingdong, today's headlines, Alibaba, Weibo, etc.
On June 24th, China Electronics Sixth Research Institute released a self-developed domestic programmable logic controller (PLC) in Beijing. The 'Industrial Internet' is expected to accelerate the process. Tang Chuan introduced that in recent years, domestic enterprises in the small PLC field began to issue. Entering the market, especially in the context of the country's vigorous promotion of 'Intelligent Manufacturing 2025', the industry growth rate has been maintained at more than 20%, and the market share of domestic enterprises is gradually increasing. Optimistic about the penetration of domestic enterprises and import substitution The development potential of foreign companies under the dual opportunities.
In fact, the localization process of China's chip research and development has also made significant progress in the near future. At the recent opening of the 8th World Radar Expo, the 'Hua Rui 2' chip independently developed by China Electronics Technology Group 14 was first publicized. The comprehensive processing performance is better than the international mainstream DSP chip; the 14nm process of SMIC, the domestic foundry leader, is now close to R&D, and the trial production yield is 95%, further achieving the goal of mass production in 2019. .
Huatai Securities (14.340, -0.63, -4.21%) analysis believes that chip localization is the key to the rise of Chinese manufacturing, and domestic equipment welcomes historical opportunities. Under the new trend, local enterprises are inevitably divided, mastering core technologies, and attaching importance to technology research and development. It is expected to stand out and the value in the industry and capital market will be further improved. Considering the progress of localization, it is recommended to look at the benefit sequence from the back end of the industrial chain to the front end, from the supporting to the core link. The equipment enterprise that took the lead in benefiting domestic production capacity construction.
According to SEMI, China's semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow by 50% year-on-year in 2018, with a global share of 19%.