After the Sino-US trade war began, Wood McKenzie analysts pointed out that the impact of the United States and China on the tariffs on the oil, natural gas and chemical industries can not be underestimated.
First, the US crude oil export business will be affected. Suresh Sivanandam, senior manager of the Asian refining business at Wood Mackenzie, said that in the first quarter of 2018, the US exported China's crude oil to about 300,000 barrels per day, accounting for the total US crude oil exports. The amount is more than 20%. This shows that China is an important export market for US crude oil, and preliminary indications are that the US exports of China's crude oil will be more in the second quarter of 2018, because between US WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil. The price gap widened in the second quarter, which made the US arbitrage of crude oil exports to the Asian market more attractive.
At the same time, the United States increased its crude oil exports to China in line with China's actual situation. On the one hand, China's domestic crude oil production is declining, on the other hand, China's domestic refining capacity is increasing. Wood McKenzie predicts that, based on free trade, By 2023, US crude oil exports to China will triple on the current basis. 'Therefore, China’s tariff on US crude oil will affect US-China trade and add a significant downside risk to our medium-term forecast. Despite China Crude oil resources can be obtained from West Africa and other places that can replace US crude oil. Because West Africa's crude oil is the same quality as US crude oil, it will be difficult for the United States to find a replacement market as large as China. 'Sivanandam pointed out.
Second, some trade flows in petrochemical products will change. Joel Lindahl, vice president of olefin chemistry research at Wood Mackenz, said that at the beginning, the US-China trade war will not have much impact on US propane exports because China It will take time to find an alternative source of propane. The United States is the world’s largest propane exporter and the world’s major engine for propane supply growth, especially when OPEC cuts oil production. Last year, the US’s propane production capacity slackened to cancel multi-batch exports. 4. The cargo caused a global surge in propane prices.
In the long run, the United States will target the demand for propane in European steam crackers and propane dehydrogenators, while China will import propane from the Middle East.
Wood Mackenzie further pointed out that if the tariff increase measures are finally implemented, the export of polyethylene and other ethylene derivatives in the United States will also have an impact. Middle East producers will seize the market share of China's imported polyethylene. At the same time. The Middle East producers' market in Europe and Africa will be subject to increasing competition from the United States. If US producers insist on exporting to the Chinese market, they must be competitive with other countries' prices of $200/ton.