I believe that the dealers friends recently in the circle of friends, WeChat group saw a lot of low-cost selling components, inverter news. Among them, polycrystalline components minimum 1.7 yuan / W, than the current direct drop of 0.5 yuan / W or more. There are individual Dealers, the media calculated according to this price, that the cost of photovoltaic system is only about 3.5 yuan, even without subsidies, can achieve higher yields, direct parity online.
However, most system dealers do not agree with this statement. In their view, the reasonable profit of the channel is the premise to ensure the large-scale promotion of household photovoltaics. At present, the price of components in the first-line enterprises is 2.2-2.3 yuan. The price of the goods even exceeds 2.6 yuan (including tax and shipping).
Who actually moved the cheese of the dealer?
Where does the price of 1.7 yuan come from?
It should be pointed out that the 1.7 yuan/W component price is not the ex-factory price, part is the product that the module company offsets, and the other part is the price that a few dealers decide to withdraw from the photovoltaic industry and clean up inventory to the peers.
Although this part of the product does not belong to the degraded, dismantled components, but the warranty is not taken into account. If any accident occurs during the storage, logistics, delivery process, the buyer can only feel unlucky. PV companies made it clear that they are only on the 'normal channels' The sales component is responsible, and the resale is obviously not included here.
A number of distributors stated that when they purchased components from second-tier manufacturers, the price had dropped below 2 yuan, but the prices of first-line companies with international markets were generally above 2.1 yuan/W, and high-efficiency single-crystal products were even more expensive. There will be less 630 rush-outs, and companies will have a backlog of inventory, otherwise they will not fall to this level. 'An analyst from EPC company analyzed.
At the same time, companies that previously engaged in component recycling and sales of degraded components reactivated. As most people do not know how to inspect the quality of components, they bring opportunities to some people. The author has no doubt that the 1.7 yuan component that is currently circulating on the market Among them, a considerable portion are Class B and Class C products, which have a short life span and do not allow users to enjoy a stable income for 25 years. If dealers just go for fishing, they will give users a huge aftermarket black hole for the photovoltaic industry. .
PV product price trend analysis
Recently, two single-crystal companies in Longji and Central have lowered the price of silicon wafers again. Taking 180μm conventional silicon wafers as an example, the price of Longji has dropped to 3.35 yuan per piece, while in Central China it has been 3.32 yuan per piece. Within the yuan/slice, Sobi Solar analysts believe that the price difference between the two will directly guide the mid-stream and downstream companies to make judgments, which will affect the inventory digest rate, and will inevitably lead to the formation of silicon material prices. In terms of market demand in the second half of the year, The leader plan influences that the single crystal market demand is relatively stable, polycrystalline silicon needs to take advantage of silicon material prices, and the entire industry chain continues to lower prices to ensure market share.
Affected by the New Deal, the demand in the domestic market has decreased. Even without considering various expansion plans, the inventory pressure has been formed. Enterprises have to sell products at low prices in exchange for cash flow. In the case of consulting with Gaixi, this is unhealthy. Bargain-hunting phenomenon, but this low price is not sustainable. Sobi photovoltaic network also believes that with the gradual digestion of inventories and business expansion in overseas markets, the prices of photovoltaic products in the third quarter will gradually return to the right track.
Taking the price of components that most distributors are concerned with as an example, it is expected that by the end of the third quarter, the price of ordinary polycrystalline modules will be expected to reach around 1.8 yuan/W, and that of high-performance polycrystalline silicon will increase by 0.1 yuan, depending on the upcoming New Deal supplement program. If there is still room for development in the household market in the second half of the year, polycrystalline silicon prices will steadily decline under the premise of monocrystalline participation in the competition. If the consumer market is weakened, the commercial and industrial distribution network that has achieved parity will become a new hot spot. The consumption of inventory will accelerate and prices will rise faster.
The situation of single-crystal modules is more complicated. Since single crystal products have been selected in more than 80% of front runners, and at least 5GW application lead bases are required to be connected to the grid at the end of the fourth quarter of this year, battery and assembly companies are under more pressure to produce. Tension, and the price gap between polycrystalline silicon will further widen. Preliminary judgment, At the end of the third quarter of this year, the price of ordinary single-crystal modules will be around 2 yuan, and high-efficiency single-crystal modules will reach 2.2 yuan/W.
Possible variables
The first is the impact of the latest policy. Several sources of information show that before June 30th, the National Energy Administration will make appropriate adjustments to the 531 New Deal, but the content of the adjustment is not yet clear. If the benefit is only 531 before the filing has not been connected to the network. In the second half of the year, the domestic application market is still silent, and battery and component prices will hardly pick up.
Followed by the impact of front-runner component prices on the market. According to media reports, the single-crystal PERC component (310Wp) opened by Guodian in several leading application bases has a relatively high bid opening price, and the lowest price of double-sided double-glass components in Dalateqi. In addition to 2.46 yuan/W, the price of single-side components of other bases is generally 2.5-2.7 yuan/W, and that of double-sided double glass is further increased by 0.05-0.15 yuan/W. If the price of components for front runners is higher than that of industrial and commercial distribution, Where is the meaning of 'leadership'? As the leader of global PV investment companies, will Guodian Investment change the bid price?
Finally, each company should also consider the implementation of the expansion plan in the first half of this year, GCL, Lungi, Granville, Guinness, Suntech, East Japan Shengdeng companies have announced their expansion plans, especially in the upper reaches of rapid expansion. After the release of the New Deal, several agencies reduced their global PV installations expectations in 2018. If relevant companies are implementing the original plan, the overcapacity of over 100,000 tons of silicon materials and more than 20GW of silicon wafers will result in overcapacity of the batteries and components. It's no wonder that industry associations are giving warnings.
summary
1. At present, the module market price is low but unsustainable. In the future, it will first warm up to normal prices and then drop steadily.
2. By the end of the third quarter, component prices are expected to:
| | conventional | Efficient |
| Polycrystalline | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Single crystal | 2.0 | 2.2 |
3. The forthcoming policy adjustment plan will have a significant impact on market prices.
4. Photovoltaic companies, especially upstream, must be alert to excess capacity.
