In the second week of June, epichlorohydrin rose by 7.67% to top the list of chemical products, and the price rose to a high of over 18,000 yuan. Since then, the price has continued to rise at a high level.
People in the industry believe that because of the supply side, cost side, and demand side, the epichlorohydrin will not be able to continue its upward trend.
According to Wang Chunming, general manager of Ruiyang Chemical Trading Co., Ltd., the recent trend of epichlorohydrin thawing in May was mainly due to the impact of large-scale conferences, limited logistics and transportation, resulting in insufficient supply of raw materials for propylene, and regional factories. The start-up load is limited, and the supply side is becoming tight. 'The current start-up load of the epichlorohydrin industry is maintained at 57.8%, with little change. But Shandong Binhua's 75,000-ton/year plant and Shandong Xinyue's 60,000/year plant are planned to Recently, it will be gradually put into production. By then, market competition will intensify, and the price war will inevitably lead to an increase in the risk of market turning down. 'Wang Chunming said.
In addition to the negative supply side, the epichlorohydrin raw material market is expected to be weaker and it is difficult to form a support on the cost side.
From the perspective of raw material propylene, affected by the renewed Sino-U.S. trade friction, the market price climbed to a high of 8,500 yuan, the downstream buying began to contradict, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods began to decline. In addition, the relatively low price of North China propylene impacted Shandong Propylene. , The market is limited in high-price shipments, and the inventory volume has risen cumulatively. “According to the market outlook, the propylene market is still expected to decline in the short-term,” Zhang Xu, manager of Jilin Baoyuan Chemical Trading Co., Ltd. said.
From the perspective of raw material glycerin, the domestic refined glycerin market is weak and difficult to change, and the spot trading atmosphere is light. The cost collapse and the demand is weak, and the manufacturer's shipment is blocked. Wang Chunming believes that from the market outlook, the production load of glycerin downstream equipment is difficult to increase, so the order is received. The intention is still weak, and the focus of the firm talks will also move closer to the lower end.
The downstream demand for epichlorohydrin is also not strong.
At present, the downstream epoxy resin market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the terminal demand is not improving. The new orders are not improving. As the weather turns hot, the traditional demand is constrained by the off-season. At the same time, the upstream raw material prices remain high, and the downstream demand is weak. Oxygen resin market cost transmission continues to be sluggish, the market is weak and volatile, and the profit margin is further narrowed compared with the previous period. It is difficult to form a strong support for the upstream epichlorohydrin market.
Wang Chunming said that the recent central environmental protection inspectors 'reviewed' in full swing, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places and environmental protection production limits, downstream enterprises operating rate and production enthusiasm will further decline.
In addition, on June 7, the Ministry of Ecology and the Environment issued the "Strengthening Supervision Program for the Blue Sky Defending Campaign in 2018-2019". The enhanced inspection started on June 11, 2018 and continued until April 28, 2019. As the policy continues to tighten, the downstream demand has not been enhanced, and there is no bright spot on the demand side.