According to the practice in previous years, the traditional demand for polypropylene was off-season in the second quarter of each year. However, this year the polypropylene market was out of the ordinary and went out of a rally. In mid-June, the average price of polypropylene (drawing) market was 9,325 yuan/ton, compared with May. Compared with the previous day, it rose by 4.6%. Analysis of this round of anti-season rises was mainly due to cost factors and centralized maintenance of equipment.
First of all, oil prices bring cost support.
On June 21st, Brent crude oil futures contract price fell 1.8% to US$73.38 per barrel; New York Stock Exchange crude oil futures contract price fell 1.5% to US$64.72 per barrel. Although the recent oil price continues to fluctuate, it is still at a relatively high level. In the market outlook, the market expects crude oil supply from Iran and Venezuela will be limited, and the rise in the US dollar will also provide effective support for oil prices. Therefore, in the short term, international oil prices may still maintain a high level and support polypropylene to maintain its high position.
Second, the device centralized maintenance.
At present, Yanshan Petrochemical, Fujian Joint, China Ocean Shell 2nd, Liaotong Chemical, Zhongyuan Petrochemical New Line and other devices are shut down. Later Daqing Petrochemical, Ningxia Baofeng and other devices also have maintenance plans. The centralized overhaul of equipment will reduce the polypropylene market supply. , The price rises. Taking into account the late restart of the device, the operating rate is expected to rebound slightly, but it can still maintain a low level around 85%.
Again, inventory is low.
During the process of centralized overhaul of equipment, the inventory of polypropylene in petrochemical enterprises continued to decline, and it currently hovered at the low level of 680,000 to 750,000 tons. Even in the current low season of seasonal demand, the inventory data of PetroChina and Sinopec's two main production companies continued to decline. , The sales pressure was reduced, and the ex-factory price remained strong.
Based on a comprehensive analysis, the overall polypropylene market is currently more bullish than bad, so it is out of the unilateral upward trend in the weak demand market. After the third quarter, market demand will improve, polypropylene market is still expected to be good.