On February 12, 2018, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement on the preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations on imported styrene originating in Korea, Taiwan, and the United States. It was found that anti-dumping facts existed, and that styrene from Korean companies was collected 7.8-8.4. % of the deposit, 5% for styrene from Taiwanese companies, and 9.2-10.7% for styrene from American companies. After the initial announcement, the biggest impact on styrene in China is reflected in the following two: aspect:
First, very few discussions on styrene resources in the anti-dumping areas and a serious inverse relationship with domestic prices. According to data from Jinlian, the highest inverting spreads reached RMB 1,000/ton.
Second, the supply of styrene imported from anti-dumping areas has shrunk significantly, and Korea’s long-standing dominance has been replaced with Saudi Arabia. According to the Bureau of Customs and Statistics, from January to April, China’s styrene imports from January to April totaled 86.8. Ten thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%.
China styrene supply and demand balance
From the balance of supply and demand in China, it is clear that there is still a large gap in demand. In the future, as many devices are launched one after another, the impact of imported sources on the Chinese domestic market will become smaller and smaller, but within a short time, the source of imports The number of influences can still not be ignored.
On June 22nd, 2018, the Ministry of Commerce issued the No. 43 Announcement of 2018, promulgated the final ruling on the anti-dumping investigation of imported styrene originating in South Korea, Taiwan region and the United States, ruling on the importation originating in South Korea, Taiwan and the United States. There was dumping of styrene, and the styrene industry in China was substantially damaged. There was a causal relationship between dumping and substantial damage. It was decided that from June 23, 2018, anti-dumping duties should be levied on these products, and the tax rate was 3.8%-55.7%. The period of levy is 5 years. The specific anti-dumping tax rate of each company is as follows:
With the result of anti-dumping arbitration 'boots landing', how will the styrene supply structure in China evolve in the later period?
First of all, judging from the results of anti-dumping arbitration, the impact on US styrene import supply is the most direct, and its margin levied rate has been increased to 13.7% - 55.7%. The arbitrage operation from the United States to China can be described as 'hard to increase' and will continue to promote U.S. sources of goods flow more to Europe and Southeast Asia. At the same time, Europe is known as the global styrene production and marketing region. If the arbitrage window opens up between Europe and Asia, phased supply is expected to increase, and Europe to Asia will also become a new supply route.
Secondly, for the South Korean side, the average tax rate for each company was reduced to 6.77% in a narrow range. A South Korean company stated that the anti-dumping duty rate is higher than 5%, the possibility of actual operation will be very small. According to the data of Jinlianchuang From January to May 2018, the average price of styrene CFR China was US$1,386/tonne, equivalent to RMB10,600/tonne. If anti-dumping calculations were made, the South Korean source price was US$1310/tonne CFR China, which was close to the spread of non-anti-dumping cargo sources. 80 US dollars / ton, South Korea's general trade into China is significantly more difficult.
After the introduction of the anti-dumping arbitration results, the replenishment of ocean-going cargo from the United States will basically be suspended, and South Korea’s supply to China will also maintain its previous contraction trend. The Taiwanese region’s supply of goods to the mainland through general trade is also relatively limited, maintaining part of the processing trade. At the same time, supply from sources in the Middle East, Japan, and Southeast Asia will increase supply to China. Saudi Arabia is expected to become China's largest supplier of imports, and Europe will not rule out new sources of supply for Asia.