According to media reports, on June 22, Xiaomi founder Lei Jun and other senior executives formally signed the Xiaomi prospectus. Xiaomi will also become the first stock exchange company with different rights. Based on investment bankers’ estimates, according to Xiaomi’s offer price, The market value range after the listing is 54 billion to 70 billion US dollars. This valuation range and the previous 70 billion -100 billion US dollars in market expectations have shrunk.
However, Lei Jun said on June 21st: Many people asked me whether it was the valuation of Xiaomi Tencent or Apple's valuation. I said that I want Tencent to take the valuation of Apple because millet is all-powerful. The valuation of Xiaomi At first, Lei Jun was very high-profile or not willing to act verbally, but he was still biased toward pragmatism in action and compromised with reality.
The valuation of millet is not expensive, but the market's core difference is whether Xiaomi is a hardware manufacturer or an Internet company. Although the prospectus claims to be an innovation-driven Internet company, Lei Jun also said that it is global. Rarely, at the same time, it can be an all-powerful company for e-commerce, hardware, and the Internet. 'But we still have to distinguish what is the company's 'reality' and what is 'ideal'.
From the revenue data disclosed by Xiaomi, we can see that smartphones still account for most of Xiaomi’s income, with a share of 70.3%. This, coupled with Xiaomi’s recent development of the eco-chain consumer products that are experiencing rapid growth, is now Xiaomi’s mobile phone. Together with other hardware businesses, it accounted for 90.8% of total revenue. For the moment, Xiaomi still prefers a company with a hardware income.
Millet's hardware competition prospects are subject to considerable uncertainty. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s smartphone production grew by 5% year-on-year in April 2018, and output from January to April increased by 4.7% year-on-year. Data from consulting firm Couterpoint shows 2018 In the first quarter, China’s smartphone shipments fell 8% year-on-year, down 21% from the previous quarter. It must be acknowledged that the current domestic smartphone market is approaching saturation, competition is fiercer, and Xiaomi is still fighting with Huawei and Apple. However, hardware revenue has not been able to provide a solid guarantee for the company's high valuation. Therefore, hardware is entering the consumer life as a millet, and it is an entrance to a series of Internet services. The future will be limited due to the market.
More crucially, under the premise of over-reliance on hardware revenue, Xiaomi hoped to pin its hopes on the Internet of Things and Internet services, and depicted a grand blueprint for investors. However, for now, the reason why Xiaomi's ecological chain products are hot It may not be the perfection of the Internet of Things and ecology, and the cost-effectiveness is still the main reason for choice. Xiaomi relies on price advantage to win market share for himself. However, when the productivity of the whole industry increases, the price strategy may not be sustainable.
Moreover, Xiaomi's ecological chain industry is no less competitive than smart phones. Today, smart speakers control most of Xiaomi's ecological products, while Tmall Elf and Baidu Xiaodu are also making strides in this area. The technical foundation of Xiaomi's ecology. It is human-computer interaction and artificial intelligence. However, Xiaomi did not occupy a leading position in these two fields. Baidu and the University of Science and Technology are the leaders of human-computer interaction speech recognition. Xiaomi is still under the control of people in the technical foundation.
The core of a company's valuation or foundation is still the company's business. When Xiaomi first began to value, the target was Amazon, but compared to Amazon, there was still a big gap between the millet. Amazon's development gradually tended to 'winner'. After all, even if the company has not been profitable for nearly two decades, there are still a large number of investors believing that Bezos has a strong network effect. As Bezos said, more than 100 million people worldwide are Amazon’s main subscriptions. The global sales of more than 5 billion products, but the amount of rice flour millet yet to be upgraded; Amazon also has a global scale, Amazon's global staff exceeded 540,000 in 2017, its company has become the world's most diverse product variety online Retailers. Amazon is even more important in technology. Amazon has a world-leading cloud computing platform, AWS, which is considered a leader in cloud computing. Through this platform, users can access and use Amazon's infrastructure. Both companies and businesses plan to access AWS.
Millet's 'now' may not be able to sustain its high valuation. Revenue is too dependent on hardware. However, the hardware market is saturated, there is a bottleneck in revenue growth, and the profit model of Internet services is not yet clear, the income is low, and the competition is cruel. The company lacks core technology in the Internet field, and its service base is limited by people. It is not clear that Millet's 'future' is lacking, and it lacks the three major advantages that the target Amazon has. It can be said that it still has a long way to go.
Of course, the market will give the final price, millet is not expensive, the market value is worth 100 billion US dollars, time and investors will give us the answer.
Dangpan and Lin