The hard times of TV companies are being dispersed. The data of the quarterly report clearly reflects the changes that are taking place in color TV manufacturers and upstream panel companies.
In 2017, the color TV industry was in the doldrums, and the entire industry suffered a negative sales growth for the first time in 10 years. At the same time, the collective price increase of upstream raw material panel makers put the cost end to the test. Under the influence of the upstream and downstream industries, the color TV industry ushered in the industry's To dark moments'.
With the advent of 2018, the problem has developed in the right direction. The prices of LCD panels in the upper reaches have been declining since the second half of 2017. With the advent of the 2018 World Cup, TV sales are expected to regain high growth. Television Machine manufacturers are expected to usher in recoverable growth.
Profit 'swap'
Panel leader BOE A's first quarterly report for 2018 was not dazzling, and in 2017 the company achieved a more than threefold increase in performance. This industry leader, which doubled its stock price in 2017, ushered in a performance decline at the start of the new year. 2018 In the first quarter of the year, the company achieved revenue of 21.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.32%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 2.019 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.34%.
The decline in gross profit margin was the main reason for the declining performance of BOE A. In the first quarter of 2018, the company's gross profit margin was 20.77%, which was significantly lower than the 25.07% in 2017 and far from the 28.63% in the first quarter of 2017. .
The decline in panel prices is the main driver of BOE's performance change. This is clearly good news for color TV companies. Taking Hisense Electric as an example, the company achieved revenue of 330.09 billion yuan in 2017, up 3.69% year-on-year; net attributable to shareholders of the parent company Profit was only 942 million yuan, a sharp drop of 46.45% year-on-year.
The net profit of less than 1 billion yuan has also refreshed the company’s new low since 2010, mainly due to the “downturn in the television market and the sharp increase in panel prices.” However, by the first quarter of 2018, Hisense’s net profit has resumed growth. .
In the first quarter of 2018, Hisense Electric realized revenue of 7.811 billion yuan, an increase of 16.54% over the same period of last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 283 million yuan, an increase of 5.47% from the same period of last year. The positive impact brought by the decline in prices of upstream panels was immediate.
The low point of Hisense's 2017 performance is only a microcosm of the industry. From the perspective of terminal sales and raw materials in the upstream, 2017 is a period of hardship for black appliances led by color TVs.
To the dark moment
First of all, from the perspective of the sales volume of color TV sets, in 2017, the entire industry experienced the first negative growth in 10 years. From 2007 to 2016, domestic color TV sales continued to grow.
In 2016, the sales volume of domestic color TV reached 173 million units, more than double the sales volume 10 years ago. However, this trend came to an abrupt end in 2017, when domestic color TV sales volume was 171 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.16%.
Although the decline was only 1%, it also ended the color TV industry's growth momentum in the past 10 years. The statistical decline of third parties is even more pronounced: According to China Yikang's data, domestic TV retail sales in 2017 decreased by 8.1% year-on-year.
As a global manufacturing center, exports have a major impact on the performance of domestic home appliance companies. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, the number of color TV sets has risen and fell in more than 10 years from 2007 to the present, but overall it is on an upward trend. 2007-2011, domestic The export volume of color TV sets (including spare parts) rose from 47.91 million units to 65.38 million units.
After adjustments in 2012 and 2013, the export of color TV sets regained momentum in 2014, and the export volume reached 74.1 million units. After repeating again in 2015, it continued to grow in 2016 and 2017, and the export volume was 80.72 million units respectively. 81.56 million units.
However, the growth rate of exports in 2017 was much lower than 2016, with an increase of 12.36% in 2016 and 1.05% in 2017. Demand at the same time in both domestic and foreign markets was also sluggish, which led to the deserted color TV industry.
The direct consequence of the lack of demand is that the color TV industry's revenue has shrunk. It is normal for the decrease in profits caused by the decrease in income to be proportional to the decrease in income.
The price increase of the upstream panel is the most important factor in the sharp drop in the profit of the color TV industry. From the second half of 2016, large-size LCD TV panels entered the price increase cycle. According to Wind statistics, from the end of February to early April 2016, 32-inch LCD The average price of the TV panel fell to a low of $52/tablet, and then it went up all the way. In September 2016, it broke through $70/tablet. Until a year later, in early September 2017, the price was always above $70.
Prices for other sizes of LCD panels, such as 40-inch, 49-inch, and 55-inch, also accelerated from the second half of 2016, and remained high in the second quarter of 2017.
The reversal of the panel leader BOE A's performance can clearly reflect the above changes. In 2015 and 2016, the revenue of BOE A was 48.624 billion yuan and 68.896 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 32.07% and 41.69% year-on-year, but the operating profit was only 9.54. Billion yuan and 505 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.67% and 47.02%.
Although operating profit in 2016 was only around RMB 500 million, in terms of quarterly results, BOE A suffered a major loss in the first half of 2016, and the company has achieved a reversal in performance since the third quarter of 2016. In the first half of 2016, BOE A The operating profit was -2.319 billion yuan. In the second half of the year, the company's operating profit reached 2.824 billion yuan, including 678 million yuan in the third quarter and 2.16 billion yuan in the fourth quarter. It is not difficult to find that the performance of BOE A reversed in the third quarter of 2016. It is also the beginning of the panel full price increase.
The increase in prices of upstream panels is obviously bad news for color TV companies. Generally speaking, the cost of LCD panels accounts for more than 60% of the cost of TV, and panel prices have risen sharply in a short period of time. The experience of downstream OEMs can be imagined. However, With the arrival of expansion of the panel companies, the price of upstream panel has been declining after the hurricane, and the downstream demand has resumed growth after a short period of sluggish growth. In addition to the consumption upgrade, the proportion of large-size products in color TV sales has steadily increased, and the color TV industry is welcoming. To reverse the moment.
Inflection point filling
The rapid price increase of the upstream panel led to color TV companies to cope with the shortage, which is the main reason why the color TV industry was generally unsatisfactory in 2017. However, with panel prices returning to fall in the second half of 2017, the gross profit margin of color TV companies is expected to return to the original level. .
After one year of continuous growth, the price rise of the liquid crystal panel has ended. The TV industry has ushered in a reversal.
Wind statistics show that from the end of September 2017, the average price of 32-inch LCD panels began to fall below US$70/piece, and fell below US$60/piece by the end of April 2018, and fell below US$50/piece by the end of May, June 5. The average weekly price fell to a new low of $46/tablet.
This price not only fell below the low of $52/tablet before the previous round of price increase, but also had the lowest since the statistics. Similarly, other large-size LCD panels have all fallen in price. Among them, the price of 40-inch LCD panels has been increasing since 2017. Mid-year mid-year $140/piece fell to $78/piece in May 2018, a drop of more than 40%; 43-inch LCD panel fell from $150/piece in mid-2017 to $87/50 in May 2018/ In the same way, the decline also exceeded 40%.
In other types of panels, the 49-inch price dropped from about 180 US dollars/piece in mid-2017 to 118 US$/piece in May 2018, a decrease of more than 30%; 55-inch price fell from 215 US$/piece to 162 USD/tablet, a decrease of more than 20%.
The rise and fall of this round of LCD panel is also caused by supply and demand. Cinda Securities pointed out that Samsung, one of the major manufacturers of panels, closed 9 of the original 19 panel makers in order to study the next generation of technology. Samsung stopped production in China. In 2016, when production capacity has not been released, panel prices of all sizes have risen to varying degrees. With the gradual launch of the China High Generation Line, panel prices have begun to decline again. Cinda Securities pointed out that at present, the average price of LCD panels has been located since 2016. Lowest level; As smartphones, laptops, tablets and monitors have entered a mature period, market demand is stable in a short period of time. Due to the simultaneous increase in demand and supply of large-size LCD panels, LCD panel prices will be at the current level for the next three years. Slightly lower.
The supply of upstream panels has increased, and the price is unlikely to rise sharply in the short term. At the same time, downstream demand is expected to pick up. Appliances are a cyclical property industry. Since there is a time lag between real estate sales from pre-sales until delivery, the demand for household appliances lags behind real estate. Sales peak.
In 2014, the sales area and amount of real estate in the country fell by twofold. According to the average 1-2 year handover period, the household electrical appliance industry's revenue growth in 2015-2016 was exactly affected. The same is true, Gree, Midea and others in the home appliance industry With negative growth in 2015, the increase in 2016 also slowed down significantly.
However, from 2015 onwards, real estate resumed growth. From 2015 to 2017, the total area of commercial housing sold nationwide was 1.124 billion square meters, 1.38 billion square meters and 1.694 billion square meters, with an increase of 6.9%, 22.4% and 7.7% respectively. 2018 From January to May, the sales area of commercial housing was 564 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. Although the growth rate is declining, it still maintains a stable growth trend.
In addition to the cyclical impact of real estate, downstream demand also has a certain periodicity. According to industry online data, in 2014, there was the World Cup in Brazil. The total sales volume of LCD TVs in China was 120 million units, an increase of 10.04% year-on-year. 2015 was the sports year, TV sales were also a small year. In that year, China’s LCD TV sales totaled 122 million units, an increase of only 1.61%. In 2016, there were the European Cup in France and the Brazil Olympic Games. In that year, total sales of LCD TVs in China reached 137 million units, an increase of 12.02% year-on-year.
The facts in 2018 proved to be true again. According to statistics, in the first three months of 2018, China sold 42.883 million color TVs, an increase of 21.14% over 35.403 million over the same period of the previous year.
In terms of product composition, the proportion of large-sized color TVs with higher selling prices is steadily increasing. According to data from Zhong Yikang, in the past two years, large-size televisions represented by 65 inches have occupied the market at an extremely rapid rate each year. In 2017, the overall sales volume of the color TV industry was sluggish. The sales of TVs with 60-inch and lower specifications all decreased in different proportions. However, the sales of 65-inch TVs increased in a contrarian direction, with an increase of over 10%.