Set micro-network messages (compile / Jimmy), equipment manufacturers will continue to invest, they spend in the cloud data center, automotive, industrial, consumer (game) terminal market spending is particularly obvious.
SEMI expects semiconductor capital spending to continue to grow in 2018 and will continue into early 2019. In 2018, fab equipment spending is expected to increase by 14%, up from 9% in February, and forecast for 2019 from 2 The monthly growth rate of 5% is raised to 9%. In the future, 92 fabs/production lines will start production in 2018 or later.
Fab investment is only an indicator that the growing demand for artificial intelligence, cloud data storage, automotive and the Internet of Things is driving unprecedented spending in the semiconductor industry. Here are some highlights from the recent SEMI FabView perspective:
Infineon's new 300mm fab in Austria – Infineon plans to plan a new 300mm thin wafer fab plant for power devices in Verac, Austria;
Rumors about Toshiba's new fab program - Toshiba will increase the 3D NAND fab depending on market conditions, and the forecast will be adjusted accordingly;
The world's advanced 300mm fab - the world's leading management said that since all 200mm fab plants are basically full capacity, it is possible to purchase or build a new 300mm fab plant soon;
Powerchip plans to build a new memory fab plant in Taiwan – Powerchip is working hard to expand capacity as memory prices continue to rise;
ROHM announces the establishment of a new SiC fab plant in Fukuoka, Japan - ROHM announces plans to establish a new SiC fab plant
Micron is building a new fab plant in Singapore – Micron broke ground at the groundbreaking ceremony of the new fab plant in Singapore on April 4, 2018;
Bosch held its groundbreaking ceremony for the 300mm fab in Dresden at the end of April 2018 – investing 1 billion euros, the largest single investment in Bosch's 130-year history. (Proofreading/Jimmy)
2. SMIC 14nm process volume production is put on the agenda Talents are missing into the IC industry
China's largest wafer foundry, SMIC's latest 14nm FinFET process, is nearing completion, and its trial production yield can reach 95%. The goal of formal mass production in 2019 seems to be not far off. Insufficient semiconductor talent pool remains an important issue for SMIC.
SMIC and the front line camp have huge differences
Founded in 2000, SMIC is the most comprehensive, well-equipped and largest integrated circuit manufacturer in mainland China. Since its establishment, SMIC has focused on semiconductor chips. From the outside world, SMIC is the representative of 'China Core'. .
However, SMIC's current state-of-the-art process is 28 nanometers. From the first quarter of 2018, 28 nanometers accounted for 3.2% of its revenue, compared to manufacturers such as UMC and Intel, which have slower development of advanced processes. More than one generation behind, not to mention the rapid progress of advanced process development, such as TSMC, Grofund, Samsung and other companies have prepared to cut into the 7-nanometer process.
As of the end of the second quarter of 2017, TSMC's mid- to high-end process chips below 28nm accounted for 54% of total revenue, and 67% below 40nm. SMIC's 2017 revenue contribution is highest from 90nm and below. Process technology, accounting for 50.7%. In 2017, the research and development of SMIC 14nm technology has only reached a critical breakthrough period, and has not yet completed development. It can be seen that when SMIC is still struggling at 28 nm, TSMC's technology has at least Leading the third generation.
In order to catch up with such a gap, SMIC will not only hold the position of Samsung Electronics and TSMC's former senior executive Liang Mengsong as the co-chief executive at the end of 2017. The main reason is that he hopes to use his past experience to guide SMIC in developing the 14nm FinFET process. The process of SMIC enables the 14-nanometer FinFET process of SMIC to achieve mass production in 2019.
SMIC also announced at the beginning of this year that it will jointly invest USD 10.24 billion with the two government industrial funds to accelerate the R&D and mass production plans of 14nm and below, and finally achieve the goal of 35,000 pieces per month. In the case of SMIC's 14-nanometer FinFET process achieving 95% yield, it is a big step toward the goal.
Lack of talent leads to slow industry development
SMIC has been groping for 18 years on the road of independent chips, but it has not yet entered the first-line camp. In addition to slower development compared with competitors such as TSMC, another important reason lies in the high-end chip talent reserve. Insufficient, this is not only a hindrance to the development of SMIC, but also a common problem in the entire Chinese chip industry. Talent reserves and training are relatively weak, which is a key factor in the gap between China's chip semiconductor industry and the international top level.
In 2017, the White Paper on China's IC Industry Talents (2016-2017) issued by the Software and Integrated Circuit Promotion Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced that 700,000 people need to invest in the industry. The shortage of talents leads to China's IC industry. The independent innovation is slow.
Southeast University, one of the first national IC talent training bases, has been cultivating a large number of talents in the field of integrated circuits over the years. The enrollment of IC-related majors in Southeast University has increased dramatically. In the field of master's degree, the enrollment quota of Microelectronics College has been increased. From the previous years, more than 200 people have increased to more than 400 people last year. Huazhong University of Science and Technology in the field of integrated circuit personnel training, last year also added 120 part-time engineering masters, this year plans to expand 50% of the doctoral enrollment plan.
However, far from being thirsty, the integrated circuit industry is a technology-intensive, talent-intensive and capital-intensive industry. Its industrial chain includes design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, equipment and materials. This industry emphasizes experience accumulation. The cultivation of talents is not a one-off event. Therefore, in a short period of time, the Chinese chip industry is still unable to get rid of the dilemma of talent shortage.
How to get rid of the pain of 'empty core'?
Although ZTE’s business has come to an end, no core technology is inevitable, such as squatting in the throat. The core technology is subject to people, and the foundation of China’s manufacturing 2025 is not strong.
The development of the chip industry requires a lot of manpower, material resources, and financial resources. Moreover, these inputs are difficult to see results in a short period of time. It is not enough for individual companies to fight alone. In the end, the integrated circuit industry is a national comprehensive national strength competition. .
Although today's 'chip fever' has gathered some policies, funds and other resources in the integrated circuit industry, can play a role in attracting talents, but in order to break through the bottleneck of China's integrated circuit industry talents, it is also necessary to consider a longer-term strategy to make 'chips The heat is not just a gust of wind. In addition, based on the characteristics of the globalized industry of integrated circuits, the global flow of talents is an inevitable trend. In the case of China's relatively backward industrial level, it is necessary to increase the intensity of attracting talents from the world.
With the release of the National Outline of the Development of Integrated Circuit Industry in 2014, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund was established. China is increasing its support for leading enterprises and encouraging enterprises to increase investment in research and development of key technologies in key areas. In terms of mechanism, the industry is also actively exploring. With the continuous increase of innovation investment, the improvement of innovation mechanism, and the gradual improvement of intellectual property awareness, China's chip industry can remove the pain of 'air core' at an early date.
3. TSMC 7nm enters mass production stage 5nm early stage risk trial production
The world's foundry leader, TSMC, held an annual technology forum on the 21st, which revealed the progress of the 7nm and 5nm advanced processes that the market is most concerned about. Wei Zhejia, president and vice chairman of the board, said that 7nm has entered a large number of stages, as for the 5nm process. Risk trial production early next year, and will be mass produced at the end of next year or early next year.
Wei Zhejia mentioned that 5G and artificial intelligence (AI) new technologies are coming, and the world will undergo major changes. TSMC is committed to research and development. The number of R&Ds reached 6,145 last year, nearly 2 times that of 2008's 2,069 people, and R&D expenses reached 78 billion. In the new Taiwan dollar, future technology will be more difficult, and R&D expenses will continue to increase. In addition, TSMC also has 1,500 design talents.
Wei Zhejia also mentioned that cars, Internet of Things, mobile phones and high-speed computing will be the four major powers driving the development of the semiconductor industry in the future. In the automotive segment, the number of built-in sensors will increase greatly, and will also be equipped with advanced communication functions, TSMC, With 28nm and 16nm and special processes, TSMC has low-cost technology. On the mobile side, TSMC mainly provides 12nm, 10nm and 7nm process technologies, while in high-speed computing, TSMC Synchronously provide advanced front and back sections to make the system more efficient.
In his speech, Wei Zhejia also did not forget to greet the upstream and downstream supply chain partners. He stressed that no matter how innovative the technology is, cooperation is the same, and coexistence and co-prosperity. TSMC is a customer loyal partner and will not compete with customers.
In terms of capacity planning, TSMC expects that the 7nm and 10nm capacity will double this year, and next year will have 50% more capacity than this year. TSMC Technology Chief Sun Yuancheng revealed that 7nm has been mass produced and will exceed the end of this year. 50 products complete Tape out, these chips are mainly used in artificial intelligence, graphics processors and virtual currency applications, as well as 5G and AP.
In addition, the enhanced version of 7 nanometers will have tape out in the second half of this year, the third quarter risk trial production, next year's heavy volume, which will also introduce EUV into the enhanced 7 nanometer process next year; and 5 nanometers, the first half of 2019 risk Sexual trial production, based on high-speed computing applications.
TSMC also revealed that the 5th and 6th plants in Wafer 15 are TSMC's 7nm and 10nm processes, and the 7th plant is expected to be completed next year. This year's 7nm and 10nm capacity will double from last year, next year. In addition, TSMC will increase its production capacity by 50% this year. In addition, TSMC's total production capacity will increase to 12 million wafers of 12-inch wafer capacity this year, which will increase by 9% compared with last year.
As the 4.5G era approaches, SiP will play a key packaging technology
The global 5G communication generation is about to be commercialized in 2020, and the technology giants Samsung Electronics, Huawei, Qualcomm, etc. are actively deploying, although for Taiwanese chip makers, 2021~2022 is the real outbreak period, but consider the research and development kinetic energy. We must not delay the investment. The latter part of the packaging and testing industry has been thinking about various new-state packaging technologies. It is expected that the 5G generation will have a big change compared to 4G. It is necessary to include a system-in-package (SiP) with several ICs. It will play a very important packaging process in the 5G generation. The industry estimates that the 5G market will create a global hardware and software supply system with a value of US$580 billion by 2020. By then, 2G smartphone sales will see 2 million, and in 2025, it will break out to more than 1.1 billion. The replacement effect is rapidly becoming the most important growth kinetic energy in the smartphone market. Due to the soaring complexity of the internal module technology of 5G smart phones, the packaging technology must take into account the light and short requirements of semiconductors for mobile devices, and have multiple functions, new The type of SiP will become the key packaging technology of the 5G generation. In fact, from the development trend of TSMC, ASE, MediaTek, etc., it has highlighted the 5G generation of advanced SiP packaging technology. The semiconductor industry revealed that next-generation packaging technology will introduce more Fan-Out packages, such as FO-AIP antenna packages for 5G front-end modules. It is worth noting that TSMC has entered advanced packaging. In the field, wires published under the process of 10 nanometers are connected to each other by two bare crystals, called System-on-Integrated-Chips (SoICs) packaging technology, which is quite similar to SiP package, which means that the SiP package is no longer It is only the strength of professional packaging and testing foundries. TSMC has entered the field of SiP packaging and is no longer limited to advanced packaging of single chips. The packaging and testing industry said that SiP will be an important packaging technology for 5G generation, such as 5G radio frequency (RF) modules. The architecture, obviously different from the 4G era, will include 12 to 16 ICs, which will increase the importance of SiP. It is estimated that the investment in the active layout of the celestial moonlight will be benefited, and the related substrate manufacturers of SiP packaging will benefit. Jing Shuo and so on can also benefit from synchronization. The packaging and testing industry pointed out that in the current development pace, the Taiwanese IC design industry is slightly slower, Hanfang Samsung, Luchang Huawei are very active in 5G business opportunities, for the latter part of the packaging and testing industry In fact, even in the second half of 2019 There are 5G chips to test the revenue contribution, and Taiwanese manufacturers think that the time of real fermentation is after 2021, but it is the right way to prepare for the resources as soon as possible, and it is also beneficial to the related supply system with more ink in SiP package. DIGITIMES
5. New application blessing, DRAM will continue to grow steadily in the next decade
Micron, the US memory giant, announced on the 21st that its earnings and outlook for the previous quarter were better than expected, and that the supply and demand situation of the industry is stable, reflecting the healthy development of the DRAM market this year. The industry is optimistic, with good market conditions, South Asia Branch, Winbond, 4. DRAM, Apacer, Shiyan and other DRAM groups will also pay brilliant results.
The four major DRAM-related companies in Taiwan are also optimistic about this year's operation. Li Peijun, general manager of South Asia Branch, pointed out that server application demand is good, PC and notebook applications are stable; seasonal changes in low-power mobile memory have changed, but the total Steady, there is still a small room for growth in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, it is entering the industry's stocking season. Overall, it is still positive. The only thing to watch is that major major companies include Samsung and SK Hynix.
The chairman of Winbond Electric Co., Ltd. pointed out that last year, the memory supply was in short supply. In the first half of this year, customers were digesting their inventories. The situation has been greatly improved. The second half of the year is the peak season. It is expected that the performance will be better than that of the first half of the year. It will continue to grow steadily in the next decade.
Wei Li Chairman Chen Libai also believes that data center memory demand is strong, e-sports market demand continues to grow, PC is stable, and vehicle and AI development will push up demand. It is estimated that DRAM market conditions will be positive in 2020.
Apacer general manager Zhang Jiaxuan believes that this year, DRAM will not see dark clouds in the third quarter, and the biggest growth momentum will come from the server.
Micron announced the third quarter of the fiscal year (as of May 31) financial report, revenue of 7.80 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 40%, a 6.1% increase, better than the median value of the revised estimate released on May 21, 77.5 Non-GAAP: Non-GAAP net profit per share was 3.15 US dollars, an increase of 94.4%, not only higher than the median value of the company's revised estimate of 3.14 US dollars, but also better than analysts expected.
Micron estimates that this quarter's revenue ranged from US$8.0 billion to US$8.4 billion, with a median value of US$8.2 billion. Non-GAAP net income per share range was 3.23 to 3.37 US dollars, with a median value of US$3.3. Lee continues to grow. Economic Daily
6. Emerging Memory Discovers Embedded Application Opportunities
Emerging memory technologies are expected to find a large number of markets in embedded applications, replacing NOR flash memory for storing code in microcontrollers (MCUs) and ASICs.
Jim Handy, an analyst at Objective Analysis, said that 'at a certain point in time, NOR will be challenged by the problem of miniaturization. All MCU and ASIC manufacturers and their logic foundries will need new non-volatility. Memory technology is used for code storage - it can happen at 40nm or 14nm, and will ultimately depend on the logic process of the foundry. 'Handy will present emerging memory market trends at the upcoming US Semiconductor Show (Semicon West) .
The industry's current challenge is that prices will be very expensive before these new memory technologies are in production. Handy says, among them, magnetoresistive random access memory (MRAM) is the most advantageous because Everspin has been selling for a long time. Independent wafer for temporary storage.
Globalfoundries supports embedded MRAM (eMRAM). David Eggleston, vice president of embedded storage at Globalfoundries, said: 'We are currently working with four of the top five MCU manufacturers. They need to use after 40nm. A lower cost embedded flash memory (e-flash) alternative to FinFET or FD-SOI, as the cost of adding eflash to a logic platform has increased dramatically.
Eggleston pointed out that with Globalfoundries, TSMC and Samsung mass production of different eMRAM versions - FD-SOI, bulk and SRAM replacement products, eMRAM began to become more mature, and production has gradually increased.
Globalfoundries introduces eMRAM with 22nm process and 256-Mbit and Gbit independent MRAM products for Everspin. Globalfoundries and TSMC have the ability to demonstrate the high temperature performance of eMRAM to ensure that automakers and industrial users can be at high temperatures (including 260 ° C reflow soldering environment still retains stored information.
Globalfoundries is also working with IP design vendor eVaderis to provide an embedded MRAM design that reduces power leakage. Eggleston said: 'Compared to SRAM, automakers are more interested in eMRAM's ability to reduce leakage to improve power budget. . '
According to George Minassian, CEO of Crossbar Inc., 'ReRAM has the advantage of scalability in a variety of emerging memory alternatives, because even in tight packages, conductive filaments and conductive thinner at 1 and 0 The difference between the filaments is still large enough to be measured. 'Minassian will present the latest developments on ReRAM at Semicon West.
Minassian said that the initial application of ReRAM will be embedded memory for logic components. Crossbar components are currently being validated and tested by customers using traditional CMOS materials. Microsemi recently licensed Crossbar technology. In addition, the company also demonstrated ReRAM chip for edge AI image recognition.
Eggleston said: 'ReRAM is becoming more and more interesting on these smaller process nodes. These lower cost simple components use a diode instead of a transistor on the selector, which may be embedded in the flash code. In terms of storage, price competition is formed. In addition, although the stack itself is very simple, many designs are performed outside the bitcell in order to control the original variation, causing the ReRAM time-to-market to be continuously delayed.
So far, the only commercial application for ReRAM seems to be Adesto Technology's conductive bridge memory (CBRAM). Handy said that this type of radiation-resistant component is currently used primarily in X-ray sterilized surgical instruments.
Ferroelectric FETs (FeFETs) using high-k dielectrics are another option. Eggleston says that FeFET promises to halve the cost of eMRAM or e-flash while providing low power consumption and ease of integration with logic components. However, it is durable The degree still needs to be improved, so he believes that FeFET needs further research and development.
Handy said that Fujitsu has produced a large number of previous generation PZT FeRAM components for subway ticket cards, but this lead-based technology also has fab integration problems. The new generation of components uses hafnium dioxide. The advantage is that materials that have been mass-produced in the fab can be used, but the component may have wear problems and the current durability is extremely limited. eettaiwan
Compile: Susan Hong