1. Memory market conditions are two kinds of situations! DRAM reports safe NAND fight rebound;
At present, the market conditions of storage have presented two situations: DRAM continued to develop steadily, with stable or small price increase. NAND Flash has seen prices fall off due to oversupply. It is expected that the DRAM market will welcome the peak season in the third quarter, and the NAND Flash market price may be slightly higher. Rebound.
In the DRAM factory, Nanyake (2408) benefited from the 20-nanometer manufacturing process. In May, it achieved a record of 8.326 billion yuan. It continued to record a record high for a single month. Not only did the sales volume of bit-sales grow, but also the sales price took a slight step. Yang, total combined revenue for the first half of May was 34.804 billion yuan, an increase of 68.4%. The legal person expects the quarterly increase of the company's performance this quarter is expected to challenge more than 30%, and its single-month revenue can continue to rise to the third quarter .
The South Asian Branch's sales volume for this quarter is expected to increase by 17% to 19%. During the peak season of the third quarter, the sales volume of the yuan is expected to continue to climb. The outside world is also concerned that after the company entered the 20nm process, it entered the servo. Application, if the related products are shipped smoothly, their performance will have a higher contribution.
Huabang Electric (2344) accumulatively consolidated revenue for the first half of May was 21.133 billion yuan, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year. Its overall monthly storage capacity this year is expected to increase from 48,000 to 52,000, and the 38-nanometer DRAM products have been Mass production in 3 quarters, and the new generation of 25nm DRAM is also expected to be in volume production in the second half of this year.
In addition, last year, Winbond's Flash-related products accounted for 47% of the company's performance, becoming another company's business engine, and the related business continued to grow steadily.
In addition, in Wanghong (2337), the consolidated revenue in the first half of May was 15.148 billion yuan, an increase of about 40% per year. Its current production capacity is full. In the second quarter, the read-only memory (ROM) has a weaker kinetic energy, but the encoding type flashes quickly. The performance of NOR Flash and NAND Flash is still buoyant. It is expected that this quarter's results may remain flat or within 5% of the quarter. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the outsiders believe that the company's third quarter will be ready for the traditional peak season.
2. TSMC 7-nm Apple orders Q4 volume;
The industry reported that TSMC's client shipment momentum was not as strong as expected. The third quarter earnings growth was not as robust as it was in the same period of last year. With the launch of Apple’s exclusive 7nm A12 processor in the fourth quarter, TSMC’s operations will fall. Eat sugar cane, is expected to write another year.
TSMC has never commented on the movements of single customers and orders, and stressed that there is no current view of correcting full-year revenue targets by 5% to 10%, and maintains that 7-nanometer accounted for 20% of the total revenue in the fourth quarter of this year. Take over 10% of the target.
The supply chain pointed out that 7-nanometer is a big momentum for TSMC growth this year. Besides Apple, customers include first-tier makers such as Qualcomm, Hass, AMD, and Xilinx, and even Bitland is developing and applying artificial intelligence (AI). Special application ICs are also used.
However, TSMC's operation in the next quarter was greatly affected by the progress of new generations of Apple's processors. Recently, Apple has seen a conservative view of the shipment of new aircraft in the second half of the year. Although Apple will introduce a large number of facial recognition chips for its three new models, The original shipment schedule for the third quarter was delayed until the fourth quarter.
In addition, graphics processor leader Nvidia's latest Turing graphics card was reported. The original planned production volume in June may now be postponed to the second half of the year, adding new variables to TSMC's third quarter operations. .
Due to the fact that the client's pull cargo kinetics was not as strong as expected, and the impact of inventory was continuously adjusted, the industry reported that TSMC’s revenue growth rate in the third quarter of this year was only expected to increase in the mid-high single digits. It was not as high as 10% to 15% in the previous quarter.
Due to the large number of variables, the three largest legal persons recently stood on the side of sellers of TSMC. Last Friday, TSMC’s last round of more than 21,000 large singles knocked in and pulled up 3 yuan, which led to a final increase of 4.5 yuan and the highest price of 231 yuan on the same day. The three legal entities continued to adjust and foreign companies continued to sell more than 8,200 contracts. They sold for over two days. In the past five days, foreign investors stood only for one day.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. tried out 7 nanometers last year because its performance was better than 10 nanometers. Many customers skipped 10 nanometers and used 7 nanometers. TSMC estimates that the number of final product designs for 7 nanometers this year will exceed 50. The supply key revealed that with the exclusive OEM for Apple. The 7-nanometer A12 processor in the fourth quarter of the heavy volume, TSMC will pull the peak this year should fall in the fourth quarter.
Although Samsung has announced a 7-nanometer process using extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, and announced that it will enter volume production, the timeline has fallen far behind back-office power for the second quarter. To prevent Samsung from ordering through 7-nm-eating, TSMC It is planned to launch a 7-nanometer enhanced version using EUV lithography equipment in the second half of next year to expand the advantages of receiving orders.
3. The silicon wafer 3 is better for its production capacity;
The market conditions of semiconductor silicon wafers continued to heat up, showing a situation in which demand exceeds supply and prices rose. Global wafers (6488), Taiwan Seiketsu (3532), Hejing (6182) and other companies are expected to benefit this year. Quarterly higher, the second half of the season has the opportunity to pay more dazzling transcripts.
Universal Crystal is the third largest semiconductor silicon wafer fab in the world. In the first quarter of this year, EPS was 6.36 yuan, a record high. Its revenue in the first half of May was 23.272 billion yuan, an annual increase of over 30%. Legal person estimates the company’s revenue and Lee will climb quarter by quarter, and the EPS is expected to reach 25 to 30 yuan in the whole year.
Global Wafer currently manufactures 750,000 wafers of 12-inch silicon wafers and 1.2 million wafers per month of 8-inch silicon wafers. At this stage, the production capacity is fully loaded. The company plans to increase its production capacity by debottlenecking, including 12-inch wafers. Lord, expected to be completed in the third quarter, new production capacity will be successively released, which will contribute to the growth of the business.
Taiwan Shengke's EPS for the first quarter of this year was 1.45 yuan, and the cumulative consolidated revenue for the first five months was 6.485 billion yuan, an increase of 27.1% year-on-year. Legal persons believe that this year's revenue and profit of the company will also rise quarter by quarter, driving the annual performance. Continue to record highs.
Taiwan Shengke's monthly production capacity of 12-inch silicon wafers is about 280,000, and monthly production capacity is about 320,000. The visibility of orders has reached the end of the year, and it is estimated that at least two double-size products will increase their prices this year. The percentage of digits has so far increased by 12%. According to the legal person assessment, if the exchange rate of the Taiwan dollar is stable, or even declining, Taiwan Seiketsu's EPS is expected to be higher by 6 yuan this year.
In the first quarter, Hejing had an EPS of 0.51 yuan, April EPS of 0.27 yuan, and EPS of the previous April reached 0.78 yuan. It had exceeded the EPS of last year by 0.67 yuan, and cumulative consolidated revenue of the previous May was 3.502 billion yuan. 40%. The legal person estimates that due to the third quarter quotations will continue to rise, coupled with new production capacity, the company's revenue and profit this year will also show a high season quarter, the annual EPS has a chance of more than 2.5 yuan. The production capacity of Longtan Plant in the eighth month of production increased to 300,000 in the third quarter of the year. In addition, it has 8 production capacity of the Zhengzhou plant under construction and is expected to produce in the third quarter. Economic Daily
4.8 The shortage of shipments of wafers will be resolved next year.
The European Department of Foreign Investment said that the shortage of 8 wafers is expected to be resolved in 2019. The challenges faced by the second-tier wafer foundry will become even more severe in the coming years. TSMC’s “buy” rating will be maintained, and UMC’s land plant will be reiterated. SMIC 'sell' rating.
According to a study report issued by the European Department of Foreign Investment, UMC announced in the shareholders’ meeting that it plans to increase its wafer prices by 8 to reflect the increase in costs. It is estimated that UMC’s profit will be approximately 5% to 10% this year.
However, European Department of Foreign Investment believes that UMC, SMIC and other second-tier foundries will face more challenges in the coming years, including the decline in the average selling prices and gross profit margins of 55nm, 40nm and 28nm processes. In the 55-nanometer wafer foundry leading Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd., the 40-nanometer process is more competitive, and the 28-nanometer process foundry of the second-tier wafer foundry is shrinking.
The European Department of Foreign Investment expects that the shortage of 8 wafers will be resolved in 2019. The reason is that by 2019, more fingerprint sensors and power management chips will be used to switch 12-inch wafers from 8 wafers by 2020. For better power consumption and smaller chip size; If foundries increase their wafer prices by 8 this year, they will need to cut prices and wait until next year when the supply of wafers is relieved.
The European Department of Foreign Investment believes that TSMC's advanced manufacturing process has advantages and strong bargaining power. Its 12% growth in EPS per share (EPS) from 2018 to 2022, maintaining TSMC's 'buy' rating and target price of NT$268 Yuan; In contrast, the traditional manufacturing process of second-tier foundries will face challenges such as intensified price competition and lack of differentiation in product portfolios in the long run. It reiterates UMC's 'sell' rating and target price of 11.6 yuan. Economic Daily 5. Semiconductor equipment peak in the third quarter;
China's strong support for semiconductors and optoelectronics has driven the global equipment industry to flourish in recent years, from the factory-focused St. Hui (5536) to the wafer transmission scheme of Jia Deng (3680), and the equipment-based Jing Ding (3413). ) Consistently optimistic about this year's operations, it is expected that the third quarter will remain high, and even have the opportunity to continue to grow.
According to the latest statistics report released by SEMI (International Semiconductor Industry Association), the global semiconductor equipment shipments amounted to another record high in the first quarter of 2018, reaching US$17 billion, which is higher than the high point set in the fourth quarter of 2017. Out of 12%, showing that the semiconductor economy continued to expand this year.
China's mainland is the most important growth market. Since last year, the boom has continued to prolong, which has driven the prosperity of the equipment industry in recent years. Chairman Liang Shengli of Shenghui, who specializes in clean rooms and electromechanical businesses, points out that he is optimistic about the large-scale expansion of high-tech industrial upgrading in mainland China. Boom, equipment engineering boom visibility can be seen 2025.
The performance of Shenghui was gradually elevated. In May, the revenue came to 1.3 billion yuan, an increase of 34% year-on-year, setting a record high for a single month. Looking forward to the second half of the year, Shenghui optimistically predicted that many projects of Chinese technology giants will begin. In addition, the orders of its subsidiary Peng Yi (6613) were also higher than those in the third quarter, which is expected to be the peak of the year's operation. From the perspective of the whole year, the second half is expected to be better than the first half.
The equipment manufacturer of Beijing Hyundai’s subsidiary, Jingding, is looking to develop the semiconductor market this year. The Kunshan plant, which was expanded last year, has already started production in the first half of 2018, and it is expected that the efficiency will show up quarter by quarter.
Liu Dingguang, chairman of Beijing Ding, stressed that benefiting from the active expansion of cross-strait semiconductors, the demand for equipment and spare parts is booming, and there is still room for growth this year.
As for the Jiadeng, which is mainly based on wafer-carrying equipment, it is estimated that the operation in June will be up. The second quarter revenue will be better than the first quarter, and the profit will also be positive. From the whole year, in the mask transmission solution, With the simultaneous growth of the wafer transfer solution, the semiconductor industry will grow steadily, and the whole year operation is expected to show quarter by quarter, indicating that the third quarter of the operation is expected to increase. Economic Daily