1. Apple A12 processor delay to the fourth quarter volume;
According to the micro-message news, as the 7-nm A12 processor for Apple’s exclusive foundry shipped in the fourth quarter, TSMC's client-side pull cargo kinetics was not as strong as expected. The performance growth in the third quarter may not be as good as in previous years.
TSMC has never commented on the trend of single customers and orders, and stressed that there is no current view of correcting the annual revenue target by 5% to 10%, and maintains that 7nm will account for 20% of revenue in the fourth quarter of this year. Takes 10% of the target.
The supply chain pointed out that 7nm is a great momentum for TSMC growth this year. Besides Apple, customers include first-tier makers such as Qualcomm, Hass, AMD, and Xilinx. Even Bitland has developed and applied special AI technology. Application IC also used.
However, TSMC's operation in the next quarter was greatly affected by the progress of Apple A12 pull shipments. Recently, Apple reportedly viewed the new aircraft shipments conservatively in the second half of the year. Although Apple introduced three new devices, it will use facial recognition chips in large quantities. 3 quarters of heavy volume shipping schedule, fear to the fourth quarter.
In addition, Nvidia’s latest Turing display adapter was also reported. It was originally planned for volume production in June and is now likely to be postponed to production in the second half of the year. It also adds variables to TSMC's third quarter operations.
Due to the fact that the client's pull-up momentum was not as strong as expected, and the impact of inventory was continuously adjusted, the industry reported that TSMC’s revenue growth rate in the third quarter of this year was only about mid-high single-digit growth. It was not as good as 10% to 15% in the previous quarter.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. tried production of 7nm last year, because its performance is better than 10nm. Many customers skip 7nm at 10nm. TSMC estimates that the number of final product designs completed by 7nm this year exceeds 50. Supply Key revealed that with the exclusive 7nm A12 processing for Apple In the fourth quarter of this year, TSMC’s peak shipments this year should fall in the fourth quarter.
Although Samsung has announced the use of 7nm process for EUV lithography equipment, and announced that it will enter mass production, the time horizon has fallen far behind the backlog of Samsung Semiconductors. In order to prevent Samsung from ordering through 7nm, TSMC plans to announce the next year. In the second half of the year, the 7nm enhanced version with EUV lithography equipment will be introduced to expand the advantages of orders.
2. TSMC, Samsung’s advanced process warfare;
The biggest change in semiconductor materials has occurred in the last 20 years. The world’s leading semiconductor equipment company Applied Materials has developed and applied tungsten substitutes for cobalt. As transistor contacts and wires in semiconductor chips, it not only allows Moore’s Law to be extended, but also allows TSMC and Samsung to The war extended to more advanced processes below 7 nanometers.
In response, the equipment using cobalt as a new material has already been shipped to fabs. The market inferred that both TSMC and Samsung are buyers. The main reason for this is that only wafer foundries currently entering the 7-nanometer manufacturing process are TSMC and Samsung.
TSMC's 7-nm manufacturing process is focused on production at Zhongke and is currently in volume production. It exclusively manufactures the latest A12 processor for Apple's OEM. However, Samsung also announced that it has successfully obtained Qualcomm’s high-end mobile phone chip orders at 7nm and is actively fighting for it. Apple's new processor, the two sides battle in the 7-nanometer confrontation does not stop.
Economic Daily provided
Since the material is the most important supplier of key foundry machines, the industry expects that with TSMC, Samsung will introduce the latest materials technology and equipment, and the two sides will once again fight against each other with a war of 7 nanometers or less. It also accelerates artificial intelligence (AI) chip functions more powerfully.
Responsible for the use of cobalt metal to solve the current critical die size reduction, the traditional tungsten and copper metal materials in the process of 10 nanometers or less, facing its electrical conductivity in the transistor junction and the local middle of the metal wire process Approaching the limits of the physical limits, the technical bottleneck that can't smoothly shrink, let the advanced semiconductor process continue to advance.
Reluctant to disclose the wafer fabs that have adopted this new material technology and equipment, only to disclose that the latest development has completed the use of cobalt as a transistor junction to connect with some copper wires, allowing the chip performance and power consumption to be presented again. The law pursues the goal of PPAC (higher efficiency, lower power consumption, smaller area and lower cost).
It is believed that this is the biggest change in semiconductor materials in the past 20 years, and may allow long-term use of tungsten metal, gradually disappearing in the semiconductor advanced process.
It should be emphasized that the use of cobalt compared to tungsten can greatly increase the performance of transistors, and the power consumption can be significantly reduced by 87%. Wafers can be smoothly scaled down to achieve better performance, lower power consumption, and lower cost. Economic Daily
3. 'The Age of Strongmen' ended Taiwan Semiconductor can recreate a TSMC?
Li Na
For Taiwan and even the global semiconductor industry, Zhang Zhongmou is a strong name. During his 30-year tenure at TSMC, the company grew from a company that was unknown and not favored to the world's top foundry giant.
In fiscal year 2017, TSMC realized revenue of 33 billion U.S. dollars (about 208.7 billion yuan), net profit of nearly 80 billion yuan, and its market value of up to 220 billion U.S. dollars, surpassing Intel to become the world's largest semiconductor company. 'Foundry' The success of the model gave Zhang Zhongmou a reputation as a “semiconductor godfather”.
To some extent, TSMC's founding of TSMC not only created its own industry (semiconductor manufacturing industry), but also created the customer's industry (semiconductor design industry). It is precisely because the industrial division of work has gradually become a climate, fabless IC design company (fabless) continue to emerge, thus creating a well-known semiconductor design companies such as Qualcomm, NVIDIA, MediaTek, Broadcom and others.
Nvidia founder and CEO Huang Renxun once publicly expressed his gratitude to Zhang Zhongmou. 'If TSMC is not owned, he is only the owner of a small company'.
Some people say that the 1970s was the golden age of the semiconductor industry in the United States. The 1980s was the era when Japanese semiconductors came to a peak. The 1990s was the era of the rise of the Korean semi-conductive industry. Then, in the 00s, it was supported by fabs. The era of sudden emergence of the semiconductor industry.
In the era of 'strong man' represented by Zhang Zhongmou, Taiwan’s semiconductor talents came out in large numbers, including Cai Mingjie, founder of MediaTek, Zhang Qingyu, former world’s leading chairman, Wang Guoyu, chairman of Genesis Technology, and Yang Dingyuan, founder of Winbond Electronics. Entered the fast lane. From IC Design Co., Ltd., MediaTek, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd., to IC Packaging & Measurement Co., Ltd., Riyueguang formed the strongest lineup.
Of the thousands of listed companies in Taiwan, nearly half of the manufacturers are engaged in products related to the electronics industry. They are literally 'electronic treasure islands'. These electronic companies can be broadly divided into two categories. One is upstream. Semiconductor companies, including materials, equipment, design, manufacturing and packaging and testing; there is a computer and mobile phone factory and supporting components company.
However, with the retirement of Zhang Zhongmou, the industry expressed its own concerns about the prospects of Taiwan's semiconductors. Even Zhang Zhongmou himself admitted that the global semiconductor investment peak has passed. 'The rapid growth of semiconductors has passed, from 1952 to 2000. For 48 years, the average annual compound growth rate is 16%, which is a very high figure. After 2000, it is about 4% to 5%. In the next 10 years, I think it will be 4% to 5%.
In such an environment, it will test the internal strength of the enterprise.
The semi-conductor industry can simulate running, and each contestant is actually doing similar actions. It's just that someone is suitable for long-distance running. Some people are suitable for sprinting. The challenges that Taiwanese companies face come from the outside, but also from the inside. At the level, there is also a technical level. Whether or not the next decade will be in Taiwan, once again, semiconductor giants such as TSMC have been created. The answer is obviously very difficult.
From the perspective of external challenges, Lin Jianhong, research manager of Jibang Tuobei Industrial Research Institute, believes that Taiwan’s share of the manufacturing market at mature process nodes will gradually decline. Internal challenges will come from land, energy, education policies, and salary levels will reduce manufacturing. The strength of packaging and testing and reinvestment. 'In the slowing down of the growth of PCs and smart phones, the market scale has driven down the driving force of semiconductor manufacturing industry. In the AI, 5G, self-driving and other issues, there will be a new market size, such as It will be the key to the continued growth of Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing industry.
More importantly, the big bang of technology is rewriting the pattern of the semiconductor industry. The tech giants at the top of the mountain feel more intense than ever before. Take Qualcomm as an example. Although chip giants such as Intel have been defeated in the mobile era to become the market The rookie, but before artificial intelligence, 5G is immature, the criticism of Wall Street seems to be incomprehensible. Although Broadcom's acquisition offer failed to take place, it can be seen that even the top semiconductor companies cannot guarantee themselves. Will it become a victim of change?
The new market demand is also stimulating the emergence of new companies. To achieve economies of scale and reduce costs, leading companies will continue to carry out international mergers and acquisitions for the purpose of strategic integration. At the same time, as the industry enters the post-Moore era, companies will accelerate the layout. In the emerging markets, the competitive landscape in the subdivided areas will accelerate reshaping, and mergers and acquisitions around the Internet of Things, automotive electronics, data centers, and artificial intelligence will become increasingly active.
For Taiwan, China, taking IC design as an example, although it is the second largest IC design area in the world, second only to the United States, the gap is still very large, and the wave of mergers and acquisitions is not very popular.
This may have something to do with the Taiwanese business owner's mentality of “being a chicken head, not a cow.” Taiwan's semiconductor industry used to have strong advantages, but it did not grasp the opportunity to reorganize it. Many companies today are very small. Inadequate layout, can only compete in the market segment.
Lin Jianhong believes that the semiconductor industry is a highly-scale economic industry. The foundry industry can thrive and Taiwan’s frustration in the memory industry is affected by economies of scale. Taiwan is limited by the limited resources in the overall development of semiconductors and must have limited resources. Bet on specific projects, resulting in a relatively lack of investment in key IP/EDA/material/equipment areas, becoming a weak link in Taiwan's semiconductor development.