In the micro-network news (reporter/Sam Meng), on the track of the autopilot, there are both Google and GM singing talents, and a large number of start-up companies around the auto-driving industry chain have emerged one after another. According to incomplete statistics, In the area of research and development of automatic driving technology, there are more than 240 start-up companies in the world. Judging from the current and future challenges, the technical route and commercial landing are the key to determining the victory. How can it be achieved?
Future car positioning
Answering this question may be the first to understand the future of car positioning. Some experts believe that from the perspective of the evolution of mobile phones, mobile phones originally could only make phone calls, but after the appearance of APP, functions of mobile phones such as photographing, payment, social networking, and learning started. Separating from the mobile phone, the mobile phone becomes a platform. The car also has to follow a similar path. The future car will be deeply integrated with the AI and Internet lifestyle and evolve into a smart mobile terminal.
Therefore, on an overall level, it is necessary to solve the problem of autonomous driving. On the one hand, this may completely overturn the current car form. In Airbus’s vision of the future, the chassis is separated from the carriage in the future. Everyone has a carriage. From point A to point B, the AI operating system will automatically deploy a chassis near the front door of the house and configure a car on the chassis. This means that the current car structure will undergo a subversive redesign, such as The cockpit is gone, even the entire carriage is a display screen, etc. Advanced technology becomes a pusher.
This also raises another big issue. That is, car manufacturers have turned into travel service providers. Perhaps, only a few car-making factories like Foxconn in the world are busy making cars. The big news is the travel service providers who define cars. The architecture even personalized service.
On the other hand, in the eco-contention of car operating systems, application development around automobiles will also be very popular. When the development of applications on the car can be developed like a mobile phone APP, not a huge GPU + AI. Combine chips to achieve this, or to automate the engine of the landing time node.
Technical force
In terms of technical routes and core products, it is clear that, unlike large Internet companies such as BAT, domestic startups mostly focus their technology routes on certain software or hardware such as sensors, chips, and algorithms.
At the sensor level, millimeter-wave radar, lidar, and CMOS image sensors are constantly improving in terms of performance, cost, and power consumption. On the other hand, the fusion processing of these sensors is required in terms of products such as Advanced Driver Assistance (ADAS). Will become a hot spot, who can take the lead in exerting the power of 'collective' who will have more dominance.
The focus of the chip lies in how to increase the computing power of automotive AI chips and reduce power consumption continuously. The speed of technology supply must match the speed of industry development, and constantly match the required performance, power consumption, algorithm, and cost requirements in order to co-operate. Eventually reaching the 'critical point' of autopilot, it becomes the 'burst point' of the chip.
In contrast, the maturity of the algorithm must be continuously improved. However, after a long period of time, the algorithm is stable and will tend to be open source. In this period of time, it will always be discovered that the value of certain algorithms will be more marketable after the algorithm is open-sourced. The company acquires, while emerging new challenge algorithms need to overcome.
Of course, since we have embarked on the road of technology, we must plan the technological path and the direction of evolution, whether it is horizontal integration or vertical integration. It is to cut into the existing supply chain ecosystem or start another one. This is a lasting test.
Some analysts believe that the auto-driving market is forming a new business environment where giants and entrepreneurs dance and complement each other. Start-up companies with advantages in their vertical segment will gradually become a part of the supply chain of large-scale enterprises, ie, auto-piloting in the future. It will increasingly look like today's mobile phone industry. Entrepreneurs are paying more attention to various subdivided areas. Large-scale platform companies will integrate the promoters of these subdivided areas in the future.
The direction of the commercial landing
According to a research report, by 2050, the market size of driverless smart cars and mobile shared travel will reach 7 trillion US dollars, of which taxi services based on self-driving cars will reach 4 trillion US dollars. Express and commercial logistics services will Up to 3 trillion US dollars. Although the expectations and voices of the outside world are high, but in the case of so-called unicorns appearing frequently, and today's valuation has a serious bubble, how much these so-called start-up companies have in terms of revenue and profitability? Commercialization?
According to the analysis of Gasgoo.com, from the current market situation, start-up companies based on ADAS technology and products have hit the market first, and cooperated with OEMs and Tier 1 to directly load vehicles through front loading, which is obviously more Long-term running-in and cooperative cooperation; second, side-impact, retrofitting, retrofitting into the pre-installed circuitous route, and these companies have already obtained some market orders.
Another group of start-up companies that use autopilot as the ultimate direction of development will eventually plan to deploy autopilot technology in the field of travel. Such startups will use auto companies to produce relatively simple autopilot logistics or shared vehicles. Travel field and operate and maintain.
In the area of automated driving, there are too many opportunities and radicalities. There are also many speculations and risks. However, it is easy to make quick money. To sail on this track, you must have independent innovation.