In the past month, the price of this cryptocurrency has plummeted by about 30%; this year it has fallen by more than 50%. Tom Lee, research director at Wallstrat Securities research company Fundstrat, may have discovered the bitcoin's recent plunge. Cause or partial reason.
In a research briefing, he wrote that in December last year, Cboe Bitcoin futures were introduced. Bitcoin prices have been falling before Bitcoin futures contracts expired.
'Before the expiration of the Cboe Bitcoin futures contract, Bitcoin's prices fell significantly. Justin Saslaw of Raptor Group Consulting pointed this out too. We compiled some data and found that this is indeed the case. 'Lee wrote, 'Generally speaking, bitcoin prices will fall by 18% in the 10 days before the expiration of the Cboe Bitcoin futures contract.'
Lee added that two exceptions occurred in February and April this year. In February, the price of Bitcoin rose by approximately 15% before the expiration of the Cboe Bitcoin futures contract; in April, the Cboe Bitcoin futures Before the contract expired, Bitcoin's price rose by about 16%.
The Cboe Bitcoin June futures contract expired on Wednesday, Bitcoin's price fell to the lowest point in four months.
'We have observed that bitcoin prices fluctuate significantly before and after the expiry of futures contracts. 'Li said, 'Generally speaking, bitcoin prices began to rebound on the sixth day after the expiration of the futures contract.'
Of course, Bitcoin bleeding may also have other reasons. The uncertainty of regulatory policies, people's concerns about price manipulation, and bear market sentiment will all have a negative impact on this cryptocurrency.
If Li's theory is correct, then Bitcoin's price should start to rebound in the next few days.
The price of Bitcoin dropped by nearly 70% from the highest point of US$20,500 in December last year. Despite this, Li insists that by the end of this year, the price of Bitcoin may reach US$25,000.
On Thursday, Bitcoin's price rose slightly, reaching $6,400.
Chris Concannon, president and chief operating officer of Cboe Global Markets, responded to Lee's theory by saying, 'We are excited about our launch of Bitcoin futures. Some people say that bitcoin futures have seriously affected Bitcoin's prices. This statement exaggerates the impact of Bitcoin futures, ignoring other important influence factors. We find that the decline in bitcoin prices is explained more rationally by other factors, such as the review of global regulatory agencies, the measures taken by tax authorities, and other cryptocurrencies. The rise and the media's diminishing interest in Bitcoin. '