National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson on May 2018
Report on the Operation of the National Economy
CCTV reporter:
Judging from the data you just released, the industrial production in May was stable, and the growth rate of investment, consumption, and other demand indicators has declined. Does this mean that the economic operation in May has a certain degree of complexity?
Mao Shengyong:
Just now I made some introductions to the main indicators of the national economy in May. From the trend of these indicators, the current economic operation has several characteristics:
First, the industry has grown steadily. From the perspective of the basic economic conditions in these years, the stability of China’s economic operation has been increasingly strengthened. The economic performance indicators in May continued this trend. In May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.8%. In the same month, it accelerated by 0.3%, which was a 6.9% increase from January to May, which was in line with the first four months. In May, the service industry production index increased by 8.1% year-on-year, 0.1% faster than last month. Therefore, production is steadily increasing. .
Second, the demand structure is optimized. From the perspective of consumption, upgrading consumption maintains a relatively rapid growth momentum. From the perspective of online consumption, service consumption has grown at a faster rate, which is a manifestation of consumption upgrading. From the perspective of investment, Although the overall investment growth has declined, the structure of investment has been optimized. For example, the growth rate of investment in manufacturing is accelerating, and private investment continues to maintain rapid growth. From the perspective of exports, the balance of foreign trade is increasing, and the proportion of general trade continues to increase. Therefore, the demand structure is optimized.
Third, economic efficiency increased. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15% in January-April, which was 3.4 percentage points higher than that in January-October. The operating profit of service industries above designated size was also good, which was an increase of 8.4%. Fiscal revenue and tax revenue also increased. Maintained rapid growth. Therefore, economic efficiency is improving.
Fourth, employment prices remained stable. From the perspective of employment, the unemployment rate in the national urban surveys in May was 4.8%, which was a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month and the same month of last year. From the price point of view, the CPI rose by 1.8% in May from the previous year. Maintained a moderate upward trend. In May, PPI rose by 4.1%. Although the increase was 0.7% higher than last month, it remained at a relatively reasonable level. Therefore, the price is stable and employment is improving.
Fifth, kinetic energy accelerates the transformation. From the perspective of the internal structure of the industry, the value-added of high-tech manufacturing increased by 12% from January to May, and the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.3%. The momentum of rapid growth continues to be maintained. From the service industry perspective, modern services The growth momentum of the industry is relatively good. In January-April, the operating income of strategic emerging service industry increased by more than 18%.
The above five aspects are the characteristics of the main indicators of economic operation in May. Although the indicators reflecting demand, such as fixed asset investment, the total retail sales of social consumer goods has slowed down, but the comprehensive production indicators, benefit indicators, structural indicators, and livelihood indicators come Look, at present, China's economy is generally stable, and steady and positive development is continuing.
Japan Economic News Reporter:
The Fed has just decided to raise interest rates. It is estimated that there will be two more interest rate hikes during the year. What impact will this have on China's economic trend in the second half of the year?
Mao Shengyong:
Thank you for your question. In the recent period, the major advanced economies have withdrawn from quantitative easing and monetary policy has turned to another direction. At the same time, some competitive tax cuts have been introduced. At the same time, international trade frictions have intensified. Overall, the world economy Unbalance and instability have increased. On the other hand, the major economies have been relatively stable, have relatively full employment, and have relatively stable prices. Most emerging economies have a good momentum of growth. From these perspectives, the global economy is still generally Continuing the recovery, international trade will continue to grow. This trend is expected to continue. This is conducive to the sound development of China’s economy and foreign trade. As for the Fed’s recent rate hike, you may have to raise interest rates in the second half of the year. It is expected that, in fact, some of the effects of the world economy, including on global capital flows, have been partially released. From the past experience and reality of China, the impact of the Fed’s rate hike on the Chinese economy is limited.
With regard to the trend of the Chinese economy in the second half of the year, externally, external uncertainties, imbalances, and instability have increased, but the recovery of the world economy, including the continuation of world trade expansion, is a high-probability event. From this perspective In terms of internal trade, China’s foreign trade is still in a good position to maintain a good development trend. From an internal point of view, the contribution of consumption to economic growth has been stable at around 60% in recent years, and the basic role has become more and more powerful. At the same time, reform and opening up has inspired more Vigor and Emerging Kinetic Energy continue to grow. From an industry perspective, growth in the industry in the past two years has been steady and rising. In most of last year, it remained at a medium-to-high speed level of around 6.5%. From the first few months of this year, the overall industrial growth rate The service industry has also maintained a steady and rapid growth. Therefore, from the perspective of industry, China’s economy is expected to maintain a relatively good growth trend in the second half of the year. I’m still about 6.5% growth in the Chinese economy throughout the year. With confidence. Thank you.
Xinhua News Agency:
Just now you mentioned that the current international trade frictions are increasing. Under such circumstances, China announced that it will expand the scale of imports. Will this increase the downward pressure on the domestic economy?
Mao Shengyong:
Everyone is very concerned about the trend of the economy. According to the actual situation of the Chinese economy, increasing imports of products, including energy products, agricultural products, and some high-tech products, will actually help balance China’s foreign trade development and help China’s consumption upgrade structure. The general trend is conducive to meeting the growing needs of the people for a better life. It is conducive to the promotion of high-quality economic development. On the other hand, it is also conducive to the development of China’s foreign trade towards a high level of development. Therefore, we must increase imports in accordance with China’s actual development needs. There's important meaning.
There are also some discussions in the community regarding the relationship between expanding imports and economic growth, including some experts and scholars. From the perspective of economic growth, we often use economic growth troika - consumption, investment, net exports, among which net exports It is the export of goods and services minus imports. If investment, consumption, and exports are unchanged, then increasing imports will reduce net exports and lower economic growth. But in reality, the economic system is a circulatory system, with various economic indicators. They are not independent of each other. Indicators are highly relevant. Therefore, on the one hand, increasing imports may increase domestic consumption and may also increase domestic investment. On the other hand, increasing imports may increase investment and increase production capacity, which may also promote Exports increase. Therefore, in analyzing these economic indicators, they cannot be viewed in isolation. They are interconnected. From this perspective, expanding imports will not necessarily slow down economic growth.
Just now we talked about the uncertainty of the world economy and the increase in instability. In fact, the continuous recovery of the world economy as a whole and the expansion of international trade are the general trend. Although trade frictions have increased, there may be some twists and turns in the short term, but free trade is the trend of the times. At present, the development momentum of the major economies and most of the developing countries is still good. Therefore, it is a high-probability event that the external environment remains relatively stable.
Of course, what is more important is that domestic demand plays an increasingly important role in these years. In domestic and foreign demand for economic growth in 2017, domestic demand contributes more than 90%. In the first quarter of this year, it needs to contribute more. In domestic demand, consumption contributes even more. The basic role of consumption has become more and more obvious. At this stage of China's economic development, the scale of consumption has expanded, the consumption structure has been upgraded, and the contribution of consumption has been an inevitable development trend. Therefore, we are in line with the general trend of consumption upgrading, leading consumption, and accelerating progress. Structural reform on the supply side, expanding quality supply, stimulating increased investment, and stimulating domestic demand. Even if there are some signs of external disturbance, as long as the domestic demand for this article is done well, there will be no problem with China’s steady and rapid economic growth.
Hong Kong Cable TV reporter:
We said that we must increase imports. We have just heard that the United States may increase tariffs. Will that affect the amount of money we export? In the past few months, have some frictions between China and the United States affected the data on economic performance? Is it affected?
Mao Shengyong:
First of all, answer your second question. Just now I introduced the main indicators of the national economy from January to May. From the perspective of the operation of these indicators, China's economy has remained generally stable, with steady progress and steady development. The operation of these indicators does not see the impact of other external shocks.
When it comes to trade frictions between China and the United States, the relevant departments have repeatedly stated that China does not want Sino-US trade frictions to escalate. The escalation of trade frictions has no benefit for China and the United States. Friction cannot solve any problems and only makes the problems more complicated. The best way is to go in the opposite direction, sit down and talk, and talk about it pragmatically. This is the better way to solve the problem. Thank you.
First Financial TV Reporter:
From January to May, the growth rate of total fixed asset investment and retail sales of social consumer goods both fell. Can you tell us what the main reason is? Will this trend continue and will it cause some pressure on economic growth?
Mao Shengyong:
Thank you for your question. Let me first talk about the total retail sales of consumer goods. In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.5%, which was 0.9 percentage points lower than that in April. However, from a cumulative point of view, the increase from January to May was 9.5%. In January-April, it dropped by 0.2%. So overall, the growth rate of consumption is relatively stable and relatively fast.
Why can the total retail sales of consumer goods in May slow down more than in April? There are two main reasons. The first reason is the holiday movement effect. The last three days of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday last year is in May, this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday is in 6 In the month, we estimated that the three-day holiday spending had affected the total retail sales of consumer goods by more than one percentage point. This is the effect of the holiday's wrong month effect. The second reason is the delayed consumer effect. The State Council recently released 7 Starting on the 1st of the month, tariffs on cars and some daily necessities began to decline, and many consumers reduced their current consumption. These combined effects caused the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in the month of May to fall slightly, but they continued to look relatively stable. Relatively fast. These factors are all short-term factors. Next, the total retail sales of consumer goods will continue to grow steadily and quickly.
Investment in fixed assets increased by 6.1% from January to May, which was a 0.9 percentage point drop from January to April. Fixed asset investment is usually divided into three areas: infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate investment. From January to May, Manufacturing investment increased by 5.2%, which was a 0.4% increase from January to April. Real estate investment increased by 10.2%, which was a slight decrease of 0.1% from January to April. Infrastructure investment increased by 9.4%, falling by 3%. From a perspective, the fall in fixed asset investment was mainly due to the slowdown in infrastructure investment growth.
Why infrastructure investment falls by 3% can be understood from two perspectives. First, from the perspective of demand for fixed asset investment, China’s infrastructure has maintained high growth for many years, and the growth rate is about 20%. After many years of With rapid development, China’s infrastructure construction has made considerable progress. Compared with the past, the demand for a substantial increase in infrastructure has weakened. This is one of the reasons. Secondly, from the perspective of projects and funds, we must guard against the three major challenges. Resolving major risks, including standardizing and rectifying non-compliance and illegal projects, requiring local financing behavior, and standardizing the behavior of borrowing, therefore, the space for funding has been narrowed, and some projects have been suspended due to non-compliance and illegal construction. Construction has brought about some impact. In the next stage, infrastructure investment still has some pressure. Real estate investment conditions continue to maintain stable and rapid growth. Manufacturing investment is expected to continue the trend of stabilization and recovery. Therefore, the next step is to integrate fixed assets investment. How does the trend, need further observation.
Economic Daily and China Economic Net Reporter:
We have noticed that the growth of manufacturing investment has accelerated in the last two months. What are the reasons? Can this trend continue?
Mao Shengyong:
Thank you for your question. Investors in manufacturing industry are very concerned about. From January to May, the investment in manufacturing increased by 5.2%, which was 0.4% faster than that in the first four months. It has seen a good momentum of recovery for two consecutive months. What exactly causes manufacturing? The recovery of investment can be understood and analyzed from the following perspectives.
First, the final demand growth is rapid. Investment is actually the demand for investment or intermediate demand. To increase investment, the key is to see the growth of final consumption. This year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods continued to grow at a relatively fast rate, from January to May. 9.5%. There is also export demand. This year, the overall momentum is good. So the final demand growth is good, driving the growth of manufacturing investment.
Secondly, from the perspective of investment in manufacturing, the manufacturing PMI has remained within the boom period for a long period of time. In particular, the manufacturing PMI in May was 51.9%, which is an increase of 0.5% from the previous month. The ex-factory prices of industrial products have also remained relatively reasonable. The more desirable level rose by 4.1% in May, 0.7% from the previous month.
Thirdly, from the perspective of funding sources, the manufacturing profits of industrial enterprises above designated size rose by 12% from January to April, and they have both confidence and ability to invest.
Fourth, the policy effect is constantly emerging. Since the beginning of this year, the central government has issued a series of policies and measures to promote the development of the real economy. It has simplified government, reduced taxes and reduced fees. Benefits are reflected in industrial enterprises. In general, the overall cost is still somewhat Falling.
The above four factors are the main reasons for the rebound in manufacturing investment. Although the growth rate of investment in manufacturing is picking up, the level is still relatively low at only 5.2%. Especially in the manufacturing industry, most of them are small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises. We must better institutionalize the institutional mechanism and better optimize the market environment. In particular, we must implement the policies and measures of the Party Central Committee and the State Council that support the development of SMEs and promote the development of private enterprises so as to better consolidate manufacturing investment. Stabilize the momentum of recovery.
Phoenix TV reporter:
Just mentioned that the impact of external shocks can't be seen from the indicator, but the reason why some media reported the good figures in May was because some exporters exported in advance to avoid the high tariffs caused by the trade war. Would you like to ask? , Has this situation been monitored in the statistics, will it cause greater pressure on the next exports? Thank you.
Mao Shengyong:
In this situation you mentioned, many institutions and analysts in the market have similar views. They worry that trade frictions may increase the cost of taxes and fees for exporters. Therefore, many companies ship in advance and export in advance. This data is mainly for customs statistics. This situation is not particularly understood. However, from a theoretical perspective, this situation cannot be completely ruled out. Enterprises are mainly to better expand the market and may be rushing forward. On the other hand, if an enterprise wants to continue its operations, it cannot improve its tariffs. Before selling all the goods, rational enterprises have a basic judgment on the development of the entire market, the international economy, and world trade. Therefore, the factors you may have may be, but are not comprehensive. Overall, the next step is if the world There are no major economic surprises. There are no major accidents in the development of world trade. China's foreign trade is still conditionally stable.