The overall utilization rate of power batteries is low, and new features are shown in 2018
As of April 2018, the total capacity of China's power batteries was 200GWh, which was 110GWh higher than that at the end of 2016. The 2016-2017 year was a boom in domestic power battery construction. In 2015, the new energy automobile industry emerged a rush to install, and once there was a shortage of power battery capacity.
In 2015, the subsidies for new energy vehicles were high, and the raw material costs have not yet risen significantly. As a result, the profitability of power batteries in 2015 was high, and the gross profit margin generally exceeded 30%, which increased the number of new entrances attracted by the high gross profit and huge market development space. (Group companies, listed companies, original digital lithium battery companies, etc.), began to build power battery capacity, in addition to the already established power battery companies also accelerate the layout of production capacity.
According to the GGII data, over 30 domestic power battery companies were set up between 2015 and 2017. Their capacity planning is generally 6~10GWh, and the construction is divided into three phases. Currently, the first phase of construction is basically completed.
In 2017, the country’s power battery shipments were 44.5GWh, the output was over 50GWh, and the capacity utilization rate was less than 40%. There was a structural overcapacity trend in domestic power batteries.
In 2018, there was a big change in the domestic power battery industry. First, the subsidy for new energy vehicles continued to decline, which drove the price of power batteries to decline. The current price of power electric systems was 1.2~1.4 yuan/Wh, which was a decrease of nearly 30% compared to the beginning of 2017. The price of ternary materials has increased by 4 to 60,000/ton compared with the beginning of 2017, driving the high cost of power batteries. The dual factors have driven the decline in the gross profit of power batteries, and the industry as a whole has remained at 20%~25%. Second, the differentiation between companies has intensified. The gap between a second-tier echelon company and third- and fourth-tier companies is evident from the perspective of shipments. The trend of the elder Hengda is obvious, that is, it is more difficult for third- and fourth-tier companies to obtain orders. Third, the subsidy threshold is increased, and the terminal is for power batteries. The demand for improvement, lack of R & D strength, product quality is difficult to continuously improve the battery capacity of the company can not be applied.
As a whole, in 2018, the power battery segment showed: Profitability fell, orders were centralized, performance continued to increase, and differentiation was accelerated. Different types of raw material prices fluctuate at different trends.
In the overall low capacity utilization rate of power battery in the country, GGII research and analysis believes that the enthusiasm for capacity expansion of the power battery industry in 2018 is not high as a whole, and the new scale will be lower than 2016-2017, and 60-65 GWh will be added in the whole year. Total capacity, effective capacity is expected to increase by 70~80 GWh, and the number of new effective capacity is greater than the total capacity, because part of the capacity in 2017 is gradually released, that is, it takes a certain buffer time to reach the design capacity.
The expansion of power battery in 2018 will have the following characteristics:
The main body of the expansion of production is clear, and scale enterprises and new entrants are the main force for expansion.
As of April 2018, China's power battery companies approached 120 (including construction), more than 70% of the company's annual production capacity exceeds 1GWh, less than 5% of the company's production capacity exceeds 8GWh, and more than 20% of the company's production capacity is between 2~8GWh. , Belong to the middle echelon company.
In 2018, it was limited to financial pressures and uncertain orders. The expansion of intermediate echelon companies has been tightened as a whole. They need to focus more on funds and enterprise energy on product research and development and customer development. Of course, the middle echelon still has some small total production capacity. And companies with good momentum of development will continue to expand production, such as Tian Jin shares, Peng Hui and so on.
In 2018, there are mainly three forces that are the main expansion forces. One is a company that has achieved a certain market share and a certain scale. It needs to continuously expand production to meet the needs of customers in 2020 and beyond. There are CATL, Fu energy, BYD, Guoxuan, etc.;
The second type of enterprise is a battery company that was established in 2016~2017. It needs to build the first-phase production capacity, such as Ruipu Energy, Tafel, and Huading Guolian, etc. The third type of enterprises needs multi-technology development to build another one. Companies with various types of battery production capacity, such as Hubei Mengshi, Jiangsu Far East Foster, and Lixin, etc. The first type of companies in the three types of enterprises have larger investment scales, with new single-phase capacity of 4~10GWh.
Newly added square and soft bag production capacity
From 2015 to 2016, many new entrants in China took the cylindrical 18650 as the entry point, building a large capacity. 18650 has been commercialized for more than 30 years. Driven by Japanese and South Korean companies, it has achieved a high degree of automation, a relatively low barrier to entry, and construction. The cycle is faster and therefore becomes the first choice for new entrants in 2015~2016.
With the introduction of the fully automatic 18650 production line introduced from South Korea, the domestic production capacity of 18650 power batteries has exceeded 12 million, which is far greater than the demand. Therefore, the expansion will be tightened. Cylindrical power batteries have a high degree of automation. The body has high energy density and low cost, but its pack is complex, its cycle life is short, and its fast charge performance is poor. Therefore, it is currently used mainly in minicars and logistics vehicles, while the loading capacity of Class A and above models is still very low. In the short term, domestic car companies are more inclined to square or soft batteries, so in 2017 some cylindrical battery companies began to lay out other shapes of power batteries.
Construction capacity is mainly distributed in East China, North China
Power battery is the core component of the car. The trend is centered around the establishment of car manufacturers. The 3C electronics and digital home appliances in South China are well developed, but the auto industry is less developed than those in East China and other regions. From the production capacity of the new forces manufacturers Look, also concentrated in the East China region, so the power battery expansion is still mainly in East China, North China and other regions.
From the point of view of the expansion of power batteries in 2018, the expansion of power batteries is more targeted and reflects both the technical roadmap and product positioning. The overall expansion of the power battery industry has become cautious; the regional expansion of production has become more clear. Further to the depot built.