The report of the 19th CPC National Congress pointed out that China’s economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, and it is now in the process of transforming the development mode, optimizing the economic structure, and transforming the growth momentum. This article links the reality of agricultural mechanization, according to 2004-2016. In the statistics of agricultural mechanization in the country, taking the tractor ownership as an entry point, the situation of changes in the ownership of tractors in China is analyzed in depth in order to provide research support for the structural adjustment orientation of tractors.
The total volume is showing a growth trend
From the total analysis, the total number of tractors in China is still showing a growing trend. However, structural adjustments and transformation and upgrading are increasingly urgent requirements.
The number of tractors in China has increased from 1,759,590 units in 2004 to 23,170,300 units in 2016, an increase of 7,374,400 units in 12 years, and an average annual increase of 614,500 units. This shows that China’s agricultural modernization is in the critical period of changing the development mode, and the On the whole, demand has also shown a growth trend.
However, it must be recognized that after the peak annual increase of tractors in China reached a peak of 1.876 million units in 2008, the overall annual increment gradually decreased. In 2016, it only increased 66,300 units compared to 2015, and in 2013, it also experienced a negative growth of more than 30,000 units. (See Table 1). The phenomenon that the overall tractor production capacity has exceeded the actual demand is becoming increasingly obvious. In some regions, some tractors have appeared saturation. From the demand and supply, the tractor structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, from the amount of The demand for growth to improve quality has become increasingly urgent.
Small and medium-sized increase has become the mainstream of development
From the structural analysis, after 2012, the development pattern of small and medium-sized increase in size has become mainstream.
From Table 1, we see that the number of small tractors (below 20 horsepower) owned by the country reached a peak of 18.152 million units in 2011, and continued to decline for five consecutive years from 2012 to 2016. In 2016, it has been reduced to 16.716 million units, a decrease of 143.62 from the peak value. Millions of units are reduced by an average annual rate of 290,000 units in five years. The above data shows two situations. First, the total number of small tractors in China has become saturated; the total volume in the structure adjustment has declined; the second is still a lot of small tractors. , It is still the type of most rural tractors in China. This is an important national condition for China's agricultural mechanization. After the total volume of small tractors is saturated, the quality of the tractors will be upgraded. The transformation and upgrading will be the main direction for future development.
From Table 1, it can also be seen that the number of large and medium-sized tractors (above 20 horsepower) in the country has been growing continuously, from 1,115,600 units in 2004 to 6,454,300 units in 2016, and 5,337,700 units in 12 years, with an average annual increase. About 445,000 units (in recent years, the annual increase is maintained at about 400,000 units). In 2016, the number of large and medium-sized tractors was 5.78 times that of 2004. In the structural adjustment of tractors, the development trend of small and medium-sized increase is still Continuing, the increase in the total amount of tractors was mainly due to the increase in large and medium-sized tractors. Intensified support for large- and medium-sized tractors' independent R&D innovations, building an internationally renowned Chinese tractor brand, and increasing the effective supply capacity and international competitiveness of Chinese-made large and medium-sized tractors have become Urgent priority.
25-50 hp, more tractors above 80 hp
Tractors above 80 hp increase even more strongly
National agricultural mechanization statistics divide large and medium-sized tractors into 20-25 horsepower, 25-50 horsepower, 50-80 horsepower, and 4 horsepower segments of 80 horsepower or more. From the perspective of development, although the tractors owned by the four horsepower segments are all Increased, but the increase ranged from large to small. The increase was mainly in the two horsepower segments of 25-50 hp and 80 hp. The growth momentum of tractors over 80 hp was even stronger (see Table 2). As of 2016, compared with 2015 The number of tractors with 25-50 horsepower in the country increased by 161,100 units, tractors with 80-horsepower or more increased by 126,600 units, tractors with 50-80 hp increased by 63,700 units, tractors with 20-25 hp increased by 23,300 units, and 20-25 horsepower. The annual increment of tractors with 25-50 hp and 50-80 hp has decreased compared with the previous year. Only the tractor with 80 hp or more has continued to increase compared with the previous year. This shows that the demand for tractors in each horsepower segment is optional in practice. , Putting the emphasis on points.
Regional development has its own characteristics
From the regional analysis, based on 2004, the number of tractors nationwide has basically continued to increase from 2005 to 2016 (only one decline occurred in 2013), but the total increase has gradually weakened since 2012. It is not the same. Between 2005 and 2016, there were 8 provinces in Yunnan, Guizhou, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Hunan, Shanxi, and Xinjiang. The total number of tractors has been increasing; there are 23 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) tractors. The total number of possessions has experienced a decline. Among them, Chongqing (2005), Shaanxi (2006), Tibet (2009), Inner Mongolia (2012), Jiangxi (2013), Qinghai (2013), Hubei (2014), Liaoning (2016 ) Eight provinces (cities, districts) increased in 11 years, only one year decreased, and overall showed a trend of growth. And Hubei, Jiangxi, Tibet, and Liaoning were the provinces with the largest increase in the number of tractors nationwide from 2004 to 2016. The top four people have more than doubled in 2016 than in 2004. There have been 15 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions where the number of tractors has decreased by more than two years (of which Guangxi appeared in 2005 and 2006, and has continued to increase since then). (See Table 3).
From Table 3, it can be seen that the number of tractors in the country has declined. Provinces mainly appeared in Beijing, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Guangdong, and other developed regions before 2011. The total tractor volume decline was due to industrial restructuring, transformation and upgrading requirements, and grain area. Due to the reduction, the per capita volume of food produced in these 6 provinces and cities is the lowest in 6 provinces and cities in the country. For example, in 2015, the national average grain per capita was 452.1 kg. The order of these 6 provinces and cities was: Fujian 172.2 kg (26), Zhejiang 135.8 kg (27), Guangdong 125.2 kg (28), Tianjin 117.5 kg (29), Shanghai 46.4 kg (30), Beijing 28.8 kg (31). Beijing, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian is the only country In 2016, the number of tractors owned in the province was 5 less than in 2004. In Guangdong, the number of tractors in 2016 was only 0.63 million more than in 2004. In these 12 provinces and cities in 12 years, there was a decrease in tractor ownership: Beijing, Ten years in Tianjin, nine years in Zhejiang, seven years in Shanghai, seven years in Fujian, and five years in Guangdong. This reflects the structural adjustment, the objective law of the changes in the ownership of tractors in the period of transformation and upgrading, and the quantity and quality of the tractors have risen. The developed regions must go one step ahead.
From 2012 onwards, there have been Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other wheat, major corn producing provinces, and Jiangsu, Anhui, and other wheat, and the number of tractors in the main rice producing provinces has continued to decline. This is due to the fact that the main grain production in these provinces has basically achieved mechanization. The development of agricultural mechanization has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and more emphasis has been placed on improving the quality and efficiency of development. The tractor has been upgraded to more than 80 hp, the number of small tractors has decreased, the horsepower has increased, the number of units has decreased, and it has been in line with structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, and economic efficiency. , The requirements for green development. These 5 provinces of high horsepower tractors are among the highest in the country. In 2016, the ranking of top 4 tractors with more than 80 horsepower in the country ranked as follows: Henan (14.44 million units), Shandong (12.18 million units), Anhui ( 91,000 units), Hebei (89,200 units). Jiangsu 80,400 units, ranked No. 6. In 2016, the top four rankings of tractors above the national 80-horsepower level in 2015 were: Anhui (+2.28 million units), Henan Province. (+1.85 million units), Shandong (+1.52 million units), Jiangsu (+1.43 million units). The increase in Hebei was +0.88 million units, second to Heilongjiang (11,100 units), ranking sixth in the country. Corresponding, National Small tractor minus The most provincial rankings are: 1 Henan (-10.12 million units), 2 Jiangsu (-58,100 units), 3 Anhui (-52,200 units), 4 Hebei (-4.45 million units), 5 Heilongjiang (-3.3 million units) ), 6 Shandong (-1.7 million units) (see Table 4). The changes in the ownership of tractors in these provinces reflect the adjustment of the agricultural mechanization structure in the main grain-producing areas, and the objective laws of transformation and upgrading, which should lead to overall planning.
Emphasis on the development of small tractors in accordance with local conditions
It is worth noting that there should be a comprehensive understanding of the development of small tractors. The development trend of tractors is both small-scale, large- and medium-sized, and small-scale tractors are still the most abundant type of tractors in China's five-horsepower segment. 2016 It is still up to 16.716 million units, ranking first in five horsepower segments. Due to China's vast territory and complex national conditions, local conditions and agricultural production conditions vary widely. In the case where the overall situation of small tractors in the country is decreasing, there are still some Small tractors in provinces, cities, and regions are still the mainstream, and they continue to increase. This is a growth point that can not be ignored in the development of agricultural machinery. For example, in 2016, there are 8 provinces in Guangxi, Jiangxi, Gansu, Hunan, Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan and Chongqing. The number of small-scale tractors in municipalities and autonomous regions has increased from 2015, Guangxi and Jiangxi have increased by more than 20,000 units, and Gansu and Hunan have increased by more than 10,000 units (see Table 5). Moreover, the number of small tractors in China reached a peak in 2011. After the total value, during the period of overall decline during 2012-2016, Guangxi, Gansu, Hunan, Guizhou, Chongqing, and small tractors continued to grow. Jiangxi, Hubei, and Yunnan are also basic. With sustained growth, there has been a decline in only one year. It can be seen that small tractors are still in urgent need in these areas. There is a lot to be achieved. In the future, the development and manufacturing of small tractors should be supported in a compact, lightweight, reliable, intelligent and automated way. Form Chinese characteristics and set a head to the world. We must implement the principles of innovation, coordination, green, openness, sharing new development concepts, implement measures tailored to local conditions, be economically effective, ensure safety, protect the environment, and promote the development of agricultural mechanization. We must focus on small-scale tractors to suit local conditions. High-quality innovation and development. In the aspect of subsidy policies for purchase of agricultural machinery, it is necessary to give overall consideration to the support for small tractors and agricultural machinery, give more autonomy to areas suitable for the development of small-scale agricultural machinery, achieve coordinated development, and share development.