Rapid growth of industry scale
The demand for China's IC market accounts for 62.8% of the world's total. It is the largest integrated circuit market in the world. With the support of market demand and related national policies, China's integrated circuit industry continues to maintain rapid growth, and its technological innovation capability continues to increase. Enhanced, the supporting capacity for industrial development has been significantly improved.
In 2017, global semiconductor sales are expected to reach US$408.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, of which the integrated circuit industry is US$340.2 billion, which has the largest contribution from memory prices. In 2017, China’s IC industry’s sales were 535.52 billion yuan. The year-on-year increase was 23.5%, which was much higher than the global growth rate. Among them, design, manufacturing, and packaging testing increased by 24.7%, 29.1%, and 18.3%, respectively, accounting for 38.3%, 27.2%, and 34.5%, respectively. The regional cluster development effect was even more pronounced. The three major industrial clusters in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Central Bohai have accelerated their development. Their sales accounted for more than 90% of the country's total scale. Central and western cities along the Fusha coast have begun to accelerate the layout in the integrated circuit field.
(II) The ratio of all links in the industry chain tends to be reasonable
Overall, China's integrated circuit industry is developing in the direction of higher technological content, and the industrial structure has become more rational and rational. A typical performance is that the proportion of the chip design industry continues to increase. Because the technical threshold is relatively low, the investment is small and effective. Fast, for a long time, the industry of encapsulation and testing has occupied a high proportion in China's integrated circuit industry. However, as the strength of domestic chip design companies gradually increases, the proportion of the design industry in the industrial chain has steadily increased, and the industry has been in business since 2015. The proportion in China exceeds that of the packaging and testing industry.
Among them, driven by multi-level demands such as mobile smart terminals, IPTV and video surveillance, cloud computing, and big data, and smart hardware innovation, the chip design industry realized sales revenue of 205.10 billion yuan in 2017, an increase of 24.1% year-on-year. Benefit from chip design With the increase of industry orders, the capacity utilization rate of the chip manufacturing industry continued to be fully loaded. In 2017, sales revenue reached 145.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%. Under the influence of manufacturing capacity and overseas mergers and acquisitions, in 2017, the industry achieved sales revenue of 184.75 billion yuan. Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. The proportion of chip design industry is close to 40%, which will bring a large number of orders for downstream chip manufacturing and packaging and testing, and effectively promote the coordinated development of the industrial chain. Wuhan, Shenzhen, Hefei, Quanzhou and other places have been laid out. Or plan to lay out the memory chip production line, the memory product layout is being fully spread, indicating that the center of the next round of global memory development will be gradually transferred to China.
(C) External dependence remains strong, import and export deficit is still huge
In 2017, China’s IC import volume reached US$260.14 billion, an increase of 14.6%, and the export value was US$66.88 billion. The import and export deficit was US$193.26 billion, an increase of 16.6%. It can be seen from the data that the demand for integrated circuits in China is very urgent. Since the beginning of the year, the value of imported integrated circuits in China has exceeded US$200 billion, and it has reached a record high in 2017. In 2017, the import value of ICs was US$260.1 billion. In 2017, the import of crude oil was US$162.3 billion, far lower than the value of imported ICs. There are some factors that lead to a significant increase in IC prices. However, there is no doubt that the value of imported chips exceeds US$200 billion. The resulting trade deficit has also set a new historical high. China’s IC has always relied on imports, mainly due to the fact that domestic independent chip products have a medium-low structure. The pattern of the end has not yet been fundamentally changed. High-end products mainly rely on imports. The self-sufficiency rate of Chinese chips is only about 8%, which seriously affects industrial transformation and upgrading and even national security.
(4) Future Directions for the Development of Integrated Circuits
At present, the IC industry is booming. Three major directions are the focus of attention in 2018. The first is artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence is seen as an important technology that will change the course of human society's development, while artificial intelligence chips are The second is the memory market. For many years, China's memory market has been highly monopolized by foreign companies. The self-sufficiency rate is almost zero. In the Yangtze River storage, Hefei Changxin, Fujian Jinhua and other storage projects through a After the two-year construction period, various companies will gradually enter trial production or test volume in 2018, and the domestic storage industry will finally usher in a decisive moment. The third is the application of the Internet of Things, and the application of Internet of Things will be upgraded in domestic consumption and industrial transformation. With the help of double positives, ushered in a new round of development climax.
II. Investment and Financing of China's IC Industry
National and local government funds and policies strongly support the IC industry investment is large, and returns are slow, but the capital enthusiasm unabated. The prosperity of the integrated circuit industry investment and financing market can not be separated from the funding and policy guidance of the national and local governments. Since 2014 After the promulgation of the National Outline for the Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry and the establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, local governments have established local investment funds to instigate social capital investment in the IC industry.
By the end of 2017, the National Large Fund had established more than three years, invested a total of 49 companies, accumulatively invested in 67 projects for effective decision making, accumulative project commitments amounted to 118.8 billion yuan, and actually contributed 81.8 billion yuan, which accounted for the total size of the first phase respectively. 86% and 61%. On March 28, 2017, the China Development Bank, Huaxin Investment Management Co., Ltd. and Tsinghua Unisplendour Group signed a cooperation agreement respectively. Ziguang will receive a total investment of up to 150 billion yuan in investment and financing support, focusing on the development of integrated circuits. Related Business Segments. Driven by the National Fund, local funds, social capital, and financial institutions are paying more attention to the integrated circuit industry, and the financing difficulties in the industry have been alleviated. There is a strong willingness to set up sub-funds everywhere, Beijing, Wuhan, Shanghai, Sichuan, Shaanxi, etc. Industrial funds have been established one after another. At the end of 2016, the total amount of local funds announced has exceeded 200 billion yuan.
Domestic companies and capital have embarked on the stage of international mergers and acquisitions. For example, Qingxin Huachuang took the lead in the acquisition of U.S. Howe Technology, Wu Yuefeng Capital took the lead in the acquisition of U.S. Core Semiconductor, and Jian Guang Capital acquired NXP’s RF and Standard Products Division. SMIC’s acquisition Italian foundry LFoundry, Changjiang Electronics acquired the Singapore Star Group, Tongfu Microelectronics acquired AMD's sealing and testing plant, etc. In the past two years, the amount of international mergers and acquisitions led by domestic capital reached US$13 billion.
The increasingly active capital operation has greatly boosted the confidence of the industrial development. A number of major chip manufacturing projects have started one after another: TSMC has launched a 12-inch advanced logic production line project with a total investment of US$3 billion in Nanjing, and is expected to start production in the second half of 2018. , The monthly production capacity reaches 20,000 pieces; Fujian Jinhua Memory Project has invested 37 billion yuan in the first phase, and it is expected to produce 60,000 pieces of DRAM (dynamic random access memory) chip production capacity per month in 2018; Wuhan's total investment is 24 billion U.S. dollars Project start and so on.
The level of international cooperation has been continuously improved. High-end chips and advanced process cooperation have become hot spots. The development strategy of multinational corporations in China has also been gradually adjusted, from sole proprietorship to technology licensing, strategic investment, advanced production capacity transfer, joint ventures and other forms of transformation, international advanced technologies, Funds are accelerated to transfer domestically. SMIC, Huawei, Qualcomm and IMEC Belgium form a joint venture to jointly develop advanced manufacturing processes for 14nm chips; Intel, Qualcomm and Tsinghua University respectively, Handan Technology and Guizhou Province signed an agreement in the field of server chips In-depth cooperation; Qualcomm and the Guizhou provincial government established a joint venture Huaxintong to develop high-performance server chips based on the ARM architecture; Tianjin Haiguang obtained AMD's X86 architecture authorization and set up a joint venture company to develop server CPU chips.
A series of policies and measures to encourage industrial development were successively introduced, which effectively relieved the bottleneck of investment and financing, further optimized the development environment, stimulated the internal vitality of the market, and brought the industrial development to a new level.
III. Suggestions on the Investment and Financing of China's IC Industry Development
The first is to encourage the development of integrated circuit industry risk and private equity investment capital. The development of the integrated circuit industry is inseparable from a sound capital market. In particular, venture capital and private equity are the driving forces behind the continuous innovation and healthy development of the integrated circuit industry. Speech, high investment, long payback period, and high risk are important features, resulting in many risks, and social capital such as private placement is deterred.
However, in the globalized development environment, Daheng Hengda and winners take all. Future industrial integration, mergers and reorganizations are inevitable trends in the development of the integrated circuit industry. To integrate global resources, it is necessary to diversify investment and rely solely on the country’s strategy. Development investment can not support the costly IC industry. It must rely on a diversified capital market and use venture capital, private equity and other market-based capital to support its development.
The second is to actively participate in overseas acquisitions and establish industrial parks in a centralized manner. China should take the lead of the government to seize the development opportunities for the global integrated circuit industry to transfer to low-cost regions and take the initiative to participate in overseas acquisitions. The current wave of mergers and acquisitions and restructuring of the international integrated circuit industry In the ascendance, China’s position as the world’s largest integrated circuit consumer market has also been basically established. In addition, Taiwan’s control over the transfer of ICs to the mainland in the island is gradually loosening. If we seize the current opportunities, overseas factories will be acquired through overseas acquisitions. The existing machinery and equipment and mature product technology are transferred to the domestic IC project operation, which can quickly establish product business and ensure the market share in China, overseas market, and will gain more margins and have a wider market Value. The current big industry troubles are that although China's integrated circuit market is large, it uses less domestically produced chips. Therefore, it is necessary to attract domestic users to participate in investment in the chip industry and establish industrial development alliances to jointly promote the use of domestically produced chips.
On the basis of overseas acquisition strategies, in order to adapt to the development of the integrated circuit industry, the government should also take the lead in concentrating resources and establish a national integrated circuit industrial park. This is both a historical opportunity for the reorganization and transfer of overseas integrated circuit industries and a huge number of integrated circuits in China. The internal driving force of the domestic market is not only the national macroscopic consideration for the safety of key industries, but also the requirement of the development of integrated circuit electronics industry.
The third is to strengthen cooperation with international capital and promote Chinese companies to go global. International capital M&A funds are worth more than 10 billion U.S. dollars, and they are more professional and forward-looking. Moreover, many Chinese investment projects are now Chinese projects, and overseas projects are relatively small. Therefore, some adjustments should be made as soon as possible, and at the same time SIIP (Integrated Circuit Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance) internationalization organization should be established to become an international platform for capital flow and technology exchange, allowing Chinese capital to absorb more capital and experience, while international capital can Finding more quality projects, it is also recommended to do the original intention of this platform.
The integrated circuit industry is a global industry, and along with the transfer of the international integrated circuit industry chain, China's integrated circuit market is the global market in the future. However, due to the relatively weak domestic infrastructure, China's semiconductor equipment and materials products can autonomously supply no more than 10% ( In accordance with the amount of calculations, equipment and material shortages are often faced in the establishment of semiconductor production lines. Currently, many of the benefits of investment are foreign equipment and materials companies, so we must look for a better cooperation model. A big trend in the future is a fusion of Gesture, not to say that Chinese companies acquire foreign companies and turn them into domestic companies, but Chinese companies go out and grow into international companies.
The fourth is to build IC investment and financing platforms to promote the exchange of capital and industry. The IC industry is the core of the information technology industry. It is a strategic, basic and leading industry that supports economic and social development and safeguards national security. With the introduction of the program and the establishment of a national fund, the investment and financing of the IC industry has shown a booming trend. How to measure the investment and financing status and trends of the IC industry, and understand the operation status and investment value of the company from the perspective of both horizontal and vertical The comparative analysis of the investment value between the two is the key. The establishment of a professional investment and financing database platform to assist the government and investment institutions to make decisions and enterprises to launch investment and financing activities is imminent.
At present, the Electronic Industry Publishing House Huaxin Research Institute has started the construction of integrated circuit investment and financing database platform, and held a project launch meeting on March 15, 2018. For institutions that have conducted in-depth investment business in the integrated circuit field, This database provides them with an integrated circuit industry climate forecast index and a new way of comparing the value of different investment targets. For those institutions that have not yet invested in integrated circuits, the database can serve as a wind vane.