What many people can hardly imagine is that the highest ranking in global automation is still in Asia, South Korea. Statistics show that in South Korea, 631 robots are working in factories, and most robots work in industry. Department and electrical engineering.
Under the dual stimulus of the “Made in China 2025” strategy and the structural shortage of the labor market, China’s robotics industry has entered a period of rapid growth. Since 2013, China has become the world’s largest consumer market for industrial robots, and has remained so far. National Bureau of Statistics data Shows that in 2017, the output of Chinese industrial robots reached 130,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 8%. According to analysis, the compound growth rate of the robot market will reach 20% in the next three years, and it is expected to reach 151.1 billion yuan by 2020.
It is worth noting that the major benefit of China's industrial robot gold development period before 2015 is the foreign brands of the four major families in the robotics industry represented by ABB, KUKA, FANUC, and Yaskawa Electric. In recent years, with With the promotion of the localization of robots and core components, cost reduction (shortening of the investment recovery period), artificial replacement, and acceleration of import substitution, the leading national brands in the industrial robotics industry in China are ushering in the golden age.
The following is the summary of dry goods: Industrial robots have entered gold for five years. Zhongtai Securities expects that in the next five years, it will be the golden age for the continuous rapid development of industrial robots. The logic behind this lies in the continuous rise in labor costs and the quality of products brought by robots. Sex.
Labor costs continue to rise, and robot prices decline. First, compared with manpower, industrial robots have the characteristics of low cost, high efficiency, and 24-hour work. In recent years, with the rising labor costs in China, the advantages of China’s manufacturing labor force Insignificant, the manufacturing industry urgently needs to make a transition to intelligentization, and industrial robots are showing strong development. Considering that the average robot efficiency can replace two people and can work 24 hours, the current cycle of robotic investment recovery is about 2 years.
The payback period of robotic investment is significantly shortened. In addition to the cost advantage, industrial robots generally achieve a motion accuracy of less than 0.1 mm, and the load capacity, stability, and reliability are all superior to manpower. Not only can high-intensity fine processes be completed, but also product quality can be guaranteed. Stability. For example, with robotic polishing, the yield can be increased from 87% to 93%. The stability of the product quality brought by the robot makes the application continue to expand. According to the classification of downstream applications, the current automobile manufacturing and electronics industry, these two pairs Industrial robots are the most widely used in industries with high load and precision requirements. Other applications include rubber and plastics industries, foundry industries, and food industries.
The core technologies of industrial robot parts are divided into basic components such as mechanical body, control system, drive and transmission system and sensor components in the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial robots. The core components (reducer, servo system, and controller) are used in upstream production of the industry. The midstream is the ontology manufacturer, and the downstream is the system integrator (including the single system integrator and the integrated system integrator).
The industrialization of industrial robots in China’s major listed companies in the robotics industry started relatively late, and the technological gaps between industrial robots 'four major families' (KUKA, ABB, Yaskawa, and FANUC) are significant. Currently, they are mainly focused on the ontology and system integration ( In the middle and lower reaches.) In terms of core parts and components, at present more than 80% of domestic imports are dependent on imports (and the cost of procurement is more than three or five times higher than that of foreign companies for their own use). There is ample room for import substitution.
The ratio of the system integration market to the ontology market in the country's 437 industrial robots has continued to decline in the past five years. According to the GGII data, the domestic robot market is estimated to be approximately RMB 32 billion in 2017, and the system integration market is approximately RMB 53.5 billion. The component market is about 21 billion yuan; the ratio of the three components is 1:1.7:0.6. (Consider that core components account for about 70% of the cost of the robot body, and the gross margin of the robot body is 5-15%).
Domestic Ontology Market and Integrated Market: The growth rate of robot integration is lower than that of ontology growth. Market: Three Positive Signals In recent years, the demand for the Chinese robot market has grown rapidly, and the growth rate and market share far exceed those of other countries. It has become the global robot for five consecutive years. The largest market.
IFR: China's industrial robots are expected to maintain a growth rate of 20%-25% in 2020. According to GGII data, sales of robots in China are expected to reach 136,000 units in 2017, an increase of 56% year-on-year (National Bureau of Statistics data: Domestic production of 130,000 units, year-on-year With an increase of 81%), the corresponding ontology and integration market was approximately RMB 85.5 billion, up 37% year-on-year. In the first two months of 2018, the output was nearly 19,000 units, which was a year-on-year increase of 37% compared to the first two months of 2017. According to the International Robot Federation (IFR) ) It is predicted that by 2020 China's industrial robot sales will maintain a growth rate of 20%-25%, and global sales will account for 40% of the total, securing the world's largest market.
In spite of this, China's industrial robot market is still in a situation where the overall density is low and the major markets are to be infiltrated. At the same time, the ongoing shift in the semiconductor industry chain will bring about a substantial increase in the demand for clean robots. These three points are positive signals. !
Robot density: China and South Korea, Singapore, Germany, and the United States still have a big gap to see our robot density first: According to IFR statistics, production automation around the world is accelerating, and the global industrial robot density reached 74 in 2017 (per 10,000 employees With 74 robotic units, China's robot density ranks 23rd in the world and there is still a lot of space. The huge density rises to point to a compound growth rate of the robot market. It is expected that the robot market will grow at a compounded rate of 20.4% in the next 3 years. It will reach 151.1 billion yuan by 2020.
According to the "Robotic Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)", China is expected to enter the world's top 10 countries with the highest level of automation by 2020. By then, its robot density will reach 150 units per ten thousand people, which is a 121% increase over 2016. Corresponding robot ownership will reach 660,000 units, with an average annual demand of 165,000 units.
Taking into account that the decline in robot prices will stimulate market growth, Zhongtai Securities believes that in the next three years, China’s robot sales volume is expected to surpass the industrial planning target (close to the IFR forecast), and the compound sales growth rate will be 18-23% from 2018 to 2020. The sales volume of robots is expected to reach 56 billion yuan. Considering the ratio of system integration and ontology is about 1.7:1, the corresponding system integration market is 95.1 billion yuan. The robot market totals 151.1 billion yuan.
According to the forecast of China Intelligent Manufacturing Network, the robot density in China will exceed 500 robots per 10 thousand workers in 10 years. The corresponding industrial robots have 3.5 million units, considering the robot's life span of 5-10 years, and the average annual demand exceeds 500,000. Taiwan, the average ontology market space is expected to nearly 100 billion yuan, the body plus integrated market will total more than 250 billion yuan.
Automobile manufacturing and electronic and electrical two major markets will bring high prosperity to the industry.
China's industrial robots are widely used in industries such as automotive, electronics, plastics, food, metal processing, etc. Currently, they are mainly developed in the form of 'car + electronics' two-wheel drive, which together account for 72% of the total. Among them, 3C electronic proportion Rapidly increased from 18% in 2012 to 29% in 2016.
The proportion of robots in China’s electronics and electrical industry continued to increase In 2016, China’s total sales of 3C products reached 9.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year. Although domestically concentrated about 70% of the global 3C product capacity, the degree of automation is low, and the robot density in the 3C industry is currently low. With only 11 units/ten thousand employees, the density of robots in countries such as Japan and Korea exceeds 1,200 units/ten thousand employees. Zhongtai Securities believes that the 3C industry has a high degree of prosperity, short product cycles and rapid replacement, and there is a large space for robot density, and the future is expected to continue. High growth.
The transfer of the semiconductor industry chain will bring about a substantial increase in the demand for clean robots.
Since 2016, the semiconductor industry has continued to advance due to technological innovations such as mobile applications, Internet of Things, AI, and 5G. With the country's strategic focus and industrial capital support, the semiconductor industry represented by integrated circuits and panels has shifted to the mainland. According to SEMI estimates, 62 front-end semiconductor fabs were put into operation from 2017 to 2020, of which 26 were located in mainland China, accounting for 42% of the total.
China's 12-inch chip manufacturing company at a glance The rapid development of the semiconductor industry has brought about a substantial increase in the demand for domestic automation equipment. Semiconductor production, storage and transportation are conducted in a clean environment, and different technical requirements are required for the robot's driving methods. Vacuum manipulator, OHT, etc. Clean robots are difficult to import, are limited, use large quantities, and have strong versatility. They have become key components that restrict the progress of R&D of semiconductor equipment and overall product competitiveness.
The value of automation equipment accounts for about 8% of semiconductor equipment and panel equipment. Currently, the global semiconductor equipment market reaches 250 billion yuan, and the market demand for clean robots is about 20 billion yuan each year. With the rapid development of domestic semiconductor and panel industry , Market demand is expected to reach around 40% of the world.
The core strengths and business models of the four major family robots are among the world's industrial robotics industry. They are best known to ABB Switzerland, KUKA Germany, FANUC and Yaskawa Electric in Japan. They also call the four largest families of industrial robots. Currently, they are global in scope. Market share reached 60%.
At present, the competition in the domestic robot market is still fierce. The 'Four Big Families' have entered the domestic market earlier and earlier. In recent years, they have fully enjoyed the dividends of the development of the domestic robot market, and their production capacity and shipments have shown rapid growth. , Still occupy the major market share in the domestic market.
Due to the inability to grasp the core technologies of the three major components, the three core components of China's industrial robots have always been dependent on imports. The domestic robots are mainly midstream and downstream, with low gross margins and scattered orders. The lack of core technologies and The non-standardization of orders caused the ROE of traditional domestic industrial robot companies to be difficult to increase. The core components of the robots accounted for about 70% of the value of the entire industrial chain.
The following is a detailed analysis of the core technologies of Chinese and foreign industrial robots, that is, the gap between controllers, servo motors, and reducers. 1. The controller has the smallest gap at home and abroad.
The controller is the brain of the robot. It publishes and transmits motion instructions. It includes hardware and software in two parts: The hardware is the industrial control board, including some main control units, signal processing circuits, etc. The domestic brands have mastered; The software part is mainly control algorithm , Secondary development, etc. Domestic brands still have gaps in stability, responsiveness, ease of use, etc.
2. Foreign companies in the servo system occupy an absolute advantage. According to the data of the "Chinese Robot Industry Development White Paper (2016 Edition)", more than 80% of servo motors and drives are imported, mainly from Japan, Europe and the United States. Japanese brands rely on good product performance and high performance. The competitive price monopolizes the small and medium-sized OEM (equipment manufacturing) market.
3. Market share of domestic robot servers Reducers are used to precisely control robot movements and transmit more torque. At present, the market of robot speed reducers is highly monopolized, and domestic reducers cannot achieve full import substitution during the period of popularity.
There are two kinds of reducers, RV reducers installed in the heavy load positions such as the base, boom, and shoulder, and harmonic reducers installed in the light load positions such as the arm, wrist, or hand. RV reducers are used in Japan. Nabutesk monopoly, harmonic reducer Hamernako Japan has an absolute advantage.
4. Market share of domestic robot reducer However, after several years of development, domestic robot manufacturers have gradually emerged, and they are rapidly increasing in volume, and they have achieved independent R&D and marketing in some core components (servo motors, controllers, etc.).
The advantages of domestic robotic body manufacturing are gradually being established. Middle-to-low-end robots (such as Scara et al.) are upgrading mid-to-high-end robots (such as six-axis, high-precision, heavy-load), and are consolidating in the market-oriented application of system integration services. The advantages gradually catch up with foreign brands, domestic brands are expected to gradually rise under the background of rapid development of the industry.
5, Domestic companies continue to try to break through the core components of robots and become the global automation wave and the strategic layout of China Manufacturing 2025. The demand for industrial robots in the manufacturing industry is high, and investors will also be rewarded with high returns on investment and the rapid and huge market will be updated. Drive the layout of betting robots. Although the current four major families are still monopolized in core technology, domestic industrial robot manufacturers are gradually emerging and will enter the next five years of gold development.