Market participants recently predicted that the global polycarbonate market will continue to rise. For specific reasons, let's take a look.
From the supply side, the number of imports from the Asian region will be significantly reduced. The main reason is that the tight supply in the Asian region has caused the local market prices to remain high. In this situation, local sales will become more attractive and affect the United States. Exports, so Asia's exports to the United States will be difficult to grow.
From a demand perspective, the automotive industry is the fastest growing market for PCs in the United States. PCs are mainly used for automotive rear windows and side windows. They can also replace glass for automotive windshields. However, most PCs are short-term. The demand growth still comes from the construction industry and consumer electronics industry.
According to ICIS data, the spot price of PC in the US remained stable on May 30, with the delivery price of 1.60 to 2.00 USD/lb (approximately 3527 to 4409 USD/ton). Due to tight supply, the European PC contract price in May continued to rise. Extrusion-grade PC contract prices rose to 2.95 to 3.25 US$/kg (FD, Western Europe), while in April European extrusion-grade PC settlement prices ranged from 2.90 to 3.20 US$/kg (FD, Western Europe).
Due to concerns about tight PC supply, the price of general-purpose PCs in the Asian market has risen to 3,800 to 3,900 U.S. dollars per ton, which is more than 5% higher than two months ago. In addition, the market demand for raw materials, bisphenol A (BPA) It is also very strong, and there are no indications that new production capacity will be put into the market. At the same time, trade frictions between the United States and China impose tariff increases involving PCs, which will further boost the PC market price.
Compared with the price of US$2,650/tonne in mid-May last year, PC prices have risen by about 50% at present, but the spread from raw materials is at least US$2,000/tonne. At the same time, due to factors such as hurricane weather and failure of production facilities, In the US market, PC supply is further tightened. For the Chinese market, PC supply may not be tight, but it will not increase supply capacity as expected. Last year, only Wanhua Chemical’s PC facility was put into operation in the Chinese market. Other companies’ Delayed production plans.
Market participants are also very active in inquiring about BPA, and the current transaction price is at a high of US$1600/ton. Several years ago, due to the oversupply of PC, the situation of phenol and other raw material producers was very difficult. Therefore, many manufacturers were hesitant to expand BPA production capacity. Uncertainty. The uncertainty in the supply of raw materials is considered to be the cause of delays in the production of new PC capacity in China.
Statistics show that the current global PC production capacity has risen to 5 million tons/year, and the industry's equipment load rate has exceeded 80% last year. With demand close to 4 million tons, the market began to use reserves to cope with changes. In the Japanese market, As raw materials, excipients and logistics costs continue to increase, some applications have begun to use alternative materials.
In general, the rising trend of the global PC market for plastic raw materials will gradually subside with the continuous increase in supply. From the supply side, if the major production plants do not experience production failures, it is expected that by the end of this year, the global production will increase by about 300,000 tons. And mainly from China, beyond the average annual growth rate of 3% to 4% or 100,000 to 150,000 tons of expectations.