Image Source: Vision China
On June 11th, Lithium Battery giant Ningde entered the GEM, but the recent performance of the lithium battery sector index was unsatisfactory. On June 8th, Wind data showed that the lithium battery sector index fell 0.98% to close at 4072.54 points. 38.22.25 points from the year's low is only 6.4% of the distance.
There are several reasons for this phenomenon:
On the one hand, in June 2017, due to the oversupply of the entire lithium battery segment due to the market investors in September, the phased increase was astonishing, reaching 41.07%. The leading company, Lifan Feng (002460.SZ), rose more than it did. 150%, the highest market value ever reached 75.4 billion yuan. A large number of profitable bags directly led to the long-term adjustment of the plate.
On the other hand, since 2018, the policy of new energy vehicles subsidizing the transition of new policies has also become an important factor in the further decline of the lithium battery sector - the policy clearly stipulates that the new policies for new energy vehicles from February 12 to June 11, 2018 During the transitional period, passenger vehicle and passenger vehicle subsidies for on-board licences were executed at 0.7 times of 2017; subsidies for trucks and special vehicles were implemented at 0.4 times of 2017.
Compared with the transitional period, the subsidy for 100-150 km of new energy vehicles will be cancelled after June 12th; the 150-200 km level will be reduced by nearly 40% afterwards; the 200-250 km level will be reduced by about 5%; The level of 250-300 kilometers increased by more than 10%; the level of 300-400 kilometers increased by about 45%; the level of 400 kilometers or more increased by 60%.
For vehicle manufacturers and battery manufacturers, it is therefore their top priority to reduce the number of vehicles and battery inventory below the 200km level before June 12th. This has led to a short-term decline in demand for lithium carbonate. Subsidies after June 12th have more subsidies than those during the transitional period. Consumer demand has been delayed until June 12th. This has led to downstream stocks only being digested, with little or no compensation, and eventually lithium carbonate in the first half of the year. There was no significant increase in production capacity under the premise that there was a decline in prices caused by the non-recovery of downstream stocks.
This explains why the price of new energy vehicles has increased rapidly and lithium carbonate has not increased its production capacity. Its price has declined, and falling prices will intensify the downstream wait-and-see attitude and further reduce the willingness to make up the inventory. This will bring about Small lithium carbonate manufacturers and distributors cut prices to sell more inventory.
Subsidies obtained by downstream OEMs decreased, multiple factors such as price cuts by mid-stream battery makers and falling prices of upstream lithium ore products caused the entire lithium battery industry sector to be filled with strong uncertainties in the first half of the year. In addition, as A One of the most resilient stocks in the stock market, under the condition that the market's risk preference for credit default was suppressed, it is not difficult to understand the poor share price performance of related companies in the lithium battery industry chain this year.
After subsidizing the New Deal on June 12th, the above situation is expected to change.
The new subsidy policy after June 12th is apparently designed to encourage new energy vehicle manufacturers to develop high cruising range and high energy density models. The entire lithium battery industry product will further shift to the ternary lithium battery market with a higher battery energy density. In the past, a large number of low-quality, low-efficiency lithium iron phosphate battery products will be withdrawn from the market due to cancellation or substantial reduction in subsidies. The entire lithium battery industry will enter the mid-to-high-end field, and the degree of concentration of various sub-segments in the industry chain is expected to increase substantially. The stable and orderly development of the industry can be expected.
At the same time, from the perspective of the institutional market research, due to the impact of the new subsidy policy, new energy high-energy-grade vehicles will have a period of early-stage demand release from July to August, which will have a certain pull effect on the industry chain, and then the industry chain will continue to Prepare for the end of the year and step up production. The heat of production in June has started to increase. It is expected that in the third quarter of the year, the industry chain will usher in the peak season.
At present, the median forecast PE of the 69 companies with brokerage companies' performance forecasts for the entire sector is 21.96 times for the 18-year forecast, combined with 51 companies that have disclosed the results of the interim report (29 growth year-on-year, 22 forecast growth The median over 20%), the plate has a certain valuation advantage.
However, it is worth noting that since the lithium-electricity industry chain is gradually disorganized from the previous high-speed development, the situation in which everything has shifted from one step to another has developed in an orderly manner, and the degree of concentration has improved. Therefore, leading companies in various sub-sectors hope to fully benefit from it. Follow-up new subsidy policy and high-end development strategy.
In addition, although ternary batteries have officially become the mainstream trend in the lithium battery industry, and high nickel production has also become the focus of attention of the industry and market investors, but from the perspective of the current industrial chain, the various links still need to run in and the performance is still fulfilled. Long way to go, if you blindly pursue the theme of investment in ternary materials related companies, even if the short-term profitable, or will escape the fate and loss of the same fate.
After the implementation of the new subsidy policy, the entire industry will enter the era of 'stronger and stronger'. Investors seek greater opportunities for leading companies to invest, but they need to base on performance to guard against staged hype risks.
