From the perspective of PVC market trend in early June, it seems that there will be a strong start. The closing price of June 1 will increase by 135 yuan, and the second working day will increase by a small amount on June 4th. Yuan. Therefore, the spot price began to rise, then this wave of the market can continue for a long time? Zhongyu Information will analyze the PVC June price trend from the following points.
Destocking will continue in June
According to statistics from Zhongyu, the production of PVC powder in China from January to April in 2018 was 6,451,900 tons, which was 313,900 tons higher than the output of 6.18 million tons in January-April 2017, and the rate of increase was 5.11%. Therefore, it was divided from February. Initially, China's PVC began to go through the process of destocking. Until the PVC maintenance season began in April, there was some optimism in the decline of social stocks.
(April-April-Year-April-Year PVC Production Comparison Chart)
As corporate profits are relatively abundant, maintenance of most companies has been postponed until June, and maintenance efforts in June will exceed May. First, the reduction in the supply of limestone and calcium carbide will not necessarily affect the price trend of PVC, mainly depends on the performance of PVC downstream demand in June. .
6Monthly demand starts to show up in the second half of the month
From the end of May to the beginning of June, the downstream phased procurement began gradually, which also provided practical support for the rise of PVC prices in early June. In particular, the continuous environmental protection fermentation affected the operation of downstream companies, but the second round of rising Zhongyu believes that there will not be more. Too high, especially in the north of the lower reaches of the production in advance, the order is relatively small in June.
From April onwards, China's PVC enters the maintenance season, but market prices will start from late April, and by the end of May, market prices will begin to decline. The main reason is that the maintenance in May was less than expected, and the price of PVC was superimposed on the inspection and maintenance expectations. For reasons such as environmental protection, downstream companies are often resistant to high prices. Currently, June production is not necessarily higher than in April, but demand in June, especially in the north, is mostly overdrawn in advance in April-May. Therefore, the first half of the month is small. Editing the trend of PVC is not optimistic.