Demand side: It is expected that the total demand for global smart phone panels in the third quarter will be about 530 million units, an increase of approximately 31.4% from the previous quarter.
From the perspective of demand, in the first half of 2018, the global smartphone growth remained weak. According to statistics from Sigmaintell, global smartphone shipments reached 320 million units in the first quarter, down 2.6% year-on-year; It is still difficult to get rid of the year-on-year downward trend. In the second quarter, global smart phone shipments were estimated to exceed 330 million units, down 0.4% year-on-year. The market demand did not improve significantly. At the same time, due to the development of full-screen and special-shaped screens, panel customization was high. In order to avoid inventory risks, terminal manufacturers are also more cautious about stocking the panel, resulting in weak overall panel demand.
After the first half of the slack season, market demand will start to pick up in the second half of the year. Sigmaintell expects total global smartphone panel demand in the third quarter to be approximately 530 million units, an increase of 31.4% from the previous quarter. In particular, active stocking of new Apple products Driven by the demand, panel demand began to strengthen. In the third quarter, Apple's total demand for panels is expected to be close to 100 million, which is more than double the chain growth. Other brands will also actively prepare for the arrival of the season.
Supply side: In the third quarter, the supply and demand ratio of global smart phone panels narrowed, and the overall trend became more balanced, alerting to structural risks.
From the supply side, due to the impact of irregular screen yields and other factors, the supply of panels has declined slightly. With the increase in yield and stability, the supply of LCD panels and rigid AMOLED panels in the third quarter has been affected by the overall size expansion. There is a slight increase in stability. Among them, the flexible supply capacity of AMOLEDs continues to increase. The supply growth is the most obvious. According to Sigmaintell's estimate, the overall supply capacity of smart phone panels in the third quarter increased by 8% month-on-month, in which flexible AMOLED supply capacity The increase of nearly 30% mainly responds to the growth of Apple's demand.
It can be seen that in the third quarter, the global smartphone panel demand growth is much higher than supply growth, and the supply-demand ratio is narrowing. Sigmaintell's supply and demand model analysis believes that different technology categories present varying degrees of supply risks:
(A) Supply and demand of LCD panels and price trends:
1) The price advantage of a-Si LCD panel makes it still occupy a major share of low-end smart phones. With the arrival of the peak season in the second half of the year, the supply and demand in the third quarter is expected to be tight. With the rising pressure of DDIC (driving chip), a -Si cell phone panel prices have upward pressure.
2) The LTPS LCD panel was in a state of oversupply for a long period of time. With the development of a full-screen, the proportion of LTPS projects in each terminal has increased, demand has grown significantly, and Apple’s new LCD demand this year has remained strong. It is estimated that LTPS LCD panels will be available in the third quarter. Supply and demand tend to balance, the oversupply situation has been significantly improved.
In general, for LCD panels, it is worth noting that the development of full screen has also been driving the growth of incell solutions. Currently, the driver IC has been out of stock due to capacity constraints. In particular, the TDDI driver IC is the most serious, and the overall display scheme has been advanced in advance. In a stressful atmosphere, IC prices have started to rise, and are affected by cost shifts. The panel module price is also expected to usher in price increases.
(B) AMOLED panel supply and demand and price trends:
1) Rigid AMOLED is actively following up on the development of full-screen in both price strategy and product strategy, stabilizing and striving for more customer orders. The most prominent is Samsung Display (SDC)'s successful introduction of millet's rice series project this year, customer orders Blessing. However, due to the poor performance of the Samsung Electronics market, the panel demand for rigid AMOLEDs declined year-on-year; and the new capacity of the mainland panel makers was released in the third quarter. Based on the above factors, Sigmaintell believes that the overall supply and demand of rigid AMOLEDs in the third quarter is relatively stable. Balance, the basic balance of prices.
2) Flexible AMOLED will mainly be affected by Apple's demand. In the third quarter, Apple's new machine will be released. The demand will increase and the overall supply will tend to be tight.