National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
I. Operation of China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
In May 2018, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 51.9%, which was 0.5% higher than the previous month, and the overall expansion of the manufacturing industry accelerated.
In terms of business size, the PMIs of large and medium-sized companies were 53.1% and 51.0%, respectively, which were higher than the previous month by 1.1 and 0.3 percentage points, and continued to exceed the critical point. The PMI of small-sized enterprises was 49.6%, which was 0.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. To the critical point below.
From the classification index, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, and the raw material inventory index and the employee index are below the critical point.
The production index was 54.1%, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, which was higher than the critical point, indicating that the pace of expansion in manufacturing production has accelerated.
The new orders index was 53.8%, which was 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous month. It was located in the expansion zone, indicating that the growth rate of demand in the manufacturing market was accelerating.
The inventory index of raw materials was 49.6%, which was 0.1 percentage point higher than last month. It is still below the critical point, indicating that the decline in the inventory of major raw materials for manufacturing has narrowed slightly.
The employee index was 49.1%, which was a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month. It was below the critical point, indicating that the reduction in the number of employees in the manufacturing industry was reduced.
The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, which was 0.1 percentage point lower than last month. It was close to the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing material suppliers was basically the same as last month.
Table 1 China's manufacturing PMI and composition index (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||||
| PMI | ||||||
| produce | new order | Raw materials in stock | Employees | Supplier delivery time | ||
| May 2017 | 51.2 | 53.4 | 52.3 | 48.5 | 49.4 | 50.2 |
| June 2017 | 51.7 | 54.4 | 53.1 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 49.9 |
| July 2017 | 51.4 | 53.5 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| August 2017 | 51.7 | 54.1 | 53.1 | 48.3 | 49.1 | 49.3 |
| September 2017 | 52.4 | 54.7 | 54.8 | 48.9 | 49.0 | 49.3 |
| October 2017 | 51.6 | 53.4 | 52.9 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 48.7 |
| November 2017 | 51.8 | 54.3 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 48.8 | 49.5 |
| December 2017 | 51.6 | 54.0 | 53.4 | 48.0 | 48.5 | 49.3 |
| January 2018 | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.6 | 48.8 | 48.3 | 49.2 |
| February 2018 | 50.3 | 50.7 | 51.0 | 49.3 | 48.1 | 48.4 |
| March 2018 | 51.5 | 53.1 | 53.3 | 49.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
| April 2018 | 51.4 | 53.1 | 52.9 | 49.5 | 49.0 | 50.2 |
| May 2018 | 51.9 | 54.1 | 53.8 | 49.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
Table 2 Other relevant indicators of China's manufacturing PMI (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||||||
| New export Orders | import | Purchase quantity | The main raw material purchase price | Factory price | Finished product in stock | In hand Orders | Expected production and business activities | |
| May 2017 | 50.7 | 50.0 | 51.5 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 46.6 | 45.4 | 56.8 |
| June 2017 | 52.0 | 51.2 | 52.5 | 50.4 | 49.1 | 46.3 | 47.2 | 58.7 |
| July 2017 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 52.7 | 46.1 | 46.3 | 59.1 |
| August 2017 | 50.4 | 51.4 | 52.9 | 65.3 | 57.4 | 45.5 | 46.1 | 59.5 |
| September 2017 | 51.3 | 51.1 | 53.8 | 68.4 | 59.4 | 44.2 | 47.4 | 59.4 |
| October 2017 | 50.1 | 50.3 | 53.2 | 63.4 | 55.2 | 46.1 | 45.6 | 57.0 |
| November 2017 | 50.8 | 51.0 | 53.5 | 59.8 | 53.8 | 46.1 | 46.6 | 57.9 |
| December 2017 | 51.9 | 51.2 | 53.6 | 62.2 | 54.4 | 45.8 | 46.3 | 58.7 |
| January 2018 | 49.5 | 50.4 | 52.9 | 59.7 | 51.8 | 47.0 | 45.3 | 56.8 |
| February 2018 | 49.0 | 49.8 | 50.8 | 53.4 | 49.2 | 46.7 | 44.9 | 58.2 |
| March 2018 | 51.3 | 51.3 | 53.0 | 53.4 | 48.9 | 47.3 | 46.0 | 58.7 |
| April 2018 | 50.7 | 50.2 | 52.6 | 53.0 | 50.2 | 47.2 | 46.2 | 58.4 |
| May 2018 | 51.2 | 50.9 | 53.0 | 56.7 | 53.2 | 46.1 | 45.9 | 58.7 |
II. Operation of China's Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
In May 2018, China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.9%, up 0.1% from the previous month, and non-manufacturing industries continued to grow steadily.
In terms of sub-sectors, the service business activity index for the service industry was 54.0%, up by 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, and the service industry continued to improve. From the perspective of industry categories, railway transportation industry, air transportation industry, postal express delivery industry, telecommunication broadcasting and television The business activity index of satellite transmission services, Internet software, information technology services and other industries continued to be in the high-range segment of 60.0% or above. The business activity index of capital market services, resident services and repair industries was below the critical point, and the total business volume declined. The business activity index of the construction industry was 60.1%, which was a 0.5 percentage point decrease from the previous month, and the construction industry maintained rapid growth.
The new orders index was 51.0%, which was a slight decrease of 0.1% from the previous month. It continued to be above the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing market demand maintained a steady expansion. By sector, the new order index for the service industry was 50.4%, up from the previous month. 0.1%, above the critical point. The new order index for the construction industry was 54.2%, down 1.4% from the previous month and continuing to stay above the critical point.
The price index for input products was 54.2%, which was an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, which was higher than the critical point. This indicates that the overall level of input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises used for business activities has increased. From the perspective of industry, the input prices of service industries The index was 53.3%, up 0.9% from the previous month. The construction industry input price index was 59.4%, up 4.8 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price index was 50.6%, which was the same as last month and was above the critical point, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales prices has been increasing steadily. In terms of sectors, the service industry sales price index was 50.2%, which was 0.4% lower than the previous month. The sales price index for the industry was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month.
The employee index is 49.2%, which is 0.2 percentage point higher than last month. It is still below the critical point, which indicates that the decline in the number of non-manufacturing employees has narrowed. From the perspective of industry, the service industry index is 49.0%, compared with the previous month. The index rose by 0.7%. The index of construction workers was 50.0%, down 3.2% from the previous month.
The business activity expectation index was 61.0%, which was 0.5 percentage point lower than last month. It continued to be in the high range, indicating that non-manufacturing companies are optimistic about the future market development. From an industry perspective, the service industry business activity expectation index is 60.3%. The monthly decline was 0.3%. The construction industry business activity expectation index was 65.1%, which was 1.2% lower than the previous month.
Table 3 China's non-manufacturing major classification indices (seasonally adjusted)
| Unit: % | ||||||
| Business activities | new order | Input products price | selling price | Employees | Business Activity expected | |
| May 2017 | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 48.8 | 49.0 | 60.2 |
| June 2017 | 54.9 | 51.4 | 51.2 | 49.3 | 49.6 | 61.1 |
| July 2017 | 54.5 | 51.1 | 53.1 | 50.9 | 49.5 | 61.1 |
| August 2017 | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.4 | 51.5 | 49.5 | 61.0 |
| September 2017 | 55.4 | 52.3 | 56.1 | 51.7 | 49.7 | 61.7 |
| October 2017 | 54.3 | 51.1 | 54.3 | 51.6 | 49.4 | 60.6 |
| November 2017 | 54.8 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 52.8 | 49.2 | 61.6 |
| December 2017 | 55.0 | 52.0 | 54.8 | 52.6 | 49.3 | 60.9 |
| January 2018 | 55.3 | 51.9 | 53.9 | 52.6 | 49.4 | 61.7 |
| February 2018 | 54.4 | 50.5 | 53.2 | 49.9 | 49.6 | 61.2 |
| March 2018 | 54.6 | 50.1 | 49.9 | 49.3 | 49.2 | 61.1 |
| April 2018 | 54.8 | 51.1 | 52.7 | 50.6 | 49.0 | 61.5 |
| May 2018 | 54.9 | 51.0 | 54.2 | 50.6 | 49.2 | 61.0 |
Table 4 Other non-manufacturing categories in China (adjusted seasonally)
| Unit: % | ||||
| New export orders | In-hand order | stock | Supplier delivery time | |
| May 2017 | 48.5 | 43.7 | 46.1 | 51.8 |
| June 2017 | 49.8 | 44.6 | 45.9 | 51.8 |
| July 2017 | 52.1 | 43.9 | 45.9 | 51.7 |
| August 2017 | 49.0 | 44.0 | 45.5 | 51.1 |
| September 2017 | 49.7 | 44.2 | 47.0 | 51.6 |
| October 2017 | 50.7 | 43.9 | 46.4 | 51.1 |
| November 2017 | 50.9 | 44.1 | 46.5 | 51.6 |
| December 2017 | 51.5 | 43.8 | 46.3 | 51.3 |
| January 2018 | 50.1 | 44.4 | 46.5 | 51.3 |
| February 2018 | 45.9 | 43.8 | 47.6 | 50.7 |
| March 2018 | 50.4 | 44.3 | 46.2 | 51.6 |
| April 2018 | 50.0 | 44.4 | 46.7 | 51.5 |
| May 2018 | 49.1 | 44.1 | 46.0 | 51.7 |
III. Operation of China's comprehensive PMI output index
In May 2018, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.6%, which was 0.5 percentage points higher than that of last month. It continued to be above the critical point, indicating that the pace of the overall expansion of production and business activities in China's enterprises has accelerated.
Notes
1. Explanation of major indicators
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index compiled through the monthly summary of the company's purchasing managers' monthly survey results. It covers all aspects of corporate procurement, production, and circulation, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing, and is international. One of the common leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends has a strong forecast and early warning effect. The integrated PMI output index reflects the changes in output of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) in the current PMI indicator system. Comprehensive index. PMI usually takes 50% as the demarcation point of economic strength. When PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the overall economic expansion; if it is lower than 50%, it reflects the overall economic contraction.
2. Scope of the investigation
Involving 31 industries in the “National Economic Sector Classification” (GB/T4754-2011), 3,000 survey samples; 36 non-manufacturing industry categories, 4,000 survey samples.
3. Survey method
Purchasing manager surveys use the Probability Proportional to Size (PSS) sampling method, which is based on the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries. The sample size of the industry is allocated based on the ratio of its added value to the added value of all manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries. Samples are extracted using the probability of being proportional to the company's main business income.
This survey was carried out by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of Statistics. It used the national statistics network direct reporting system to conduct a monthly questionnaire survey of corporate procurement managers.
4. Calculation method
(1) Calculation method of classification index. Manufacturing purchasing managers survey index system includes production, new orders, new export orders, on-hand orders, finished product inventory, purchase volume, imports, purchase price of major raw materials, factory price, raw material inventory , Practitioners, Supplier Delivery Time, Expectations for Production and Business Activities, etc. 13 Category Indexes. Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Survey Indicator System Including Business Activities, New Orders, New Export Orders, On Hand Orders, Inventory, Input Prices, Sales Prices , employees, supplier delivery time, business activity expectations, etc. 10 sub-indices. The sub-index uses a diffusion index calculation method, that is, the percentage of companies that are responding positively, plus half of the percentage of respondents who do not change. As non-manufacturing companies do not have Composite index, the international generally used business activity index to reflect the overall development of non-manufacturing economy.
(2) The method of calculating the manufacturing PMI index. The manufacturing PMI is calculated by weighting five diffusion indices (sub-indexes). The five sub-indexes and their weights are determined based on the degree of their prior economic impact. Including: New order index, weight 30%; production index, weight 25%; employee index, weight 20%; supplier delivery time index, weight 15%; raw material inventory index, weight 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, and the inverse operation is performed when synthesizing the manufacturing PMI index.
(3) Calculation method of comprehensive PMI output index. The comprehensive PMI output index is a weighted sum of the manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index. The weights are the ratio of manufacturing and non-manufacturing to GDP. The index was released in January 2018.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The survey of purchasing managers is a monthly survey. Due to the influence of seasonal factors, the data is subject to large fluctuations. The indexes currently released are all seasonally adjusted data.