Quzhi Consultation pointed out that from the perspective of demand, global smartphone growth remained weak in the first half of this year. Statistics on global smartphone shipments in the first quarter of the year totaled 320 million, a 2.6% decrease year-on-year. In the second quarter, it is still difficult to get rid of the year-on-year ratio. With a downward trend, global smart phone shipments are forecast to exceed 330 million units, an annual decrease of 0.4%.
QunZhi Consulting believes that there is no obvious improvement in market demand in the first half of the year. At the same time, due to the development of full screens and special screens, panel customization is highly diversified. In order to avoid inventory risks, terminal manufacturers are more cautious about stocking panels, resulting in weak overall panel demand. , After the first half of the off-season, market demand will begin to warm in the second half of the year.
Qunzhi Consulting estimated that the total global panel demand for smartphones in the third quarter was approximately 530 million pieces, a 31.4% increase in the quarter. In particular, driven by the active stocking of new products from Apple, panel demand began to strengthen, and Apple’s total demand for panels in the third quarter It is expected to be close to 100 million tablets, which will increase more than twice as much as the previous quarter. Other brands will also actively prepare for the arrival of the season.
Quzhi Consultation pointed out that from the perspective of supply, in the second quarter due to abnormal screen yields and other effects, the supply of panels declined slightly, with the increase in yield and stability, the impact of comprehensive size amplification, the third quarter LCD There is a slight increase in the supply stability of panel and rigid AMOLED panels. Among them, the flexible AMOLED production capacity continues to expand, with the most significant increase in supply.
According to QunZhi Consulting, the overall smartphone panel supply capacity in the third quarter increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter, and the flexible AMOLED supply capacity quarter increased by nearly 30%, which mainly responded to the growth of Apple's demand; therefore, the global smartphone panel demand grew in the third quarter. The scale is much higher than the growth of supply, and the ratio between supply and demand is narrowing.
According to the analysis of supply and demand model of Qunzhi Consulting Group, different technology categories present varying degrees of supply risks. The price advantage of a-Si (amorphous silicon) LCD panels still holds low-end smartphones in the supply and demand of LCD panels and price trends. The main share of the market, with the arrival of the market peak season in the second half of the year, the supply and demand in the third quarter is expected to be tight, with the upward pressure on the DDIC (driving chip), a-Si mobile phone panel prices have upward pressure.
LTPS LCD panels have been in a state of oversupply for a long period of time. With the development of full-screen, the proportion of LTPS projects in each terminal has increased, demand has grown significantly, and Apple’s new LCD demand this year is still strong. It is estimated that LTPS (low-temperature polysilicon) will start in the third quarter. ) The supply and demand of LCD panels tends to balance, and the oversupply condition is significantly improved.
In the AMOLED panel supply and demand and price trend, rigid AMOLED is actively following up the development of full-screen regardless of its pricing strategy or product strategy. It is striving for more orders from customers. Quynh Consulting believes that the overall balance of supply and demand in the rigid AMOLED 3 season is relatively balanced. , The price remains basically balanced; Flexible AMOLED will be mainly affected by Apple's demand. In the third quarter, Apple's new machine released a demand pull, and the overall supply tends to be tight.
In the second half of the year, the arrival of the market peak season, the supply and demand of mobile phone panels tends to be balanced, and the prices begin to move toward a stable or partial-specific price pressure. Legal persons believe that Taiwanese factories including AUO, Innolux, Colorful Crystal, and Huaying are all expected to benefit.