According to the micro-net report, today, the JDI stock price crashed 20%. As of the close of the Japanese stock market, the JDI stock price narrowed but fell by 7.97%.
The cause of the JDI crash was South Korea’s “Electronic Times” said that Apple has decided to use OLED screens in all new iPhone models released next year.
At present, JDI is the main supplier of iPhone LCD screens. With the release of the iPhone X last year, Apple abandoned the 10-year LCD screen to switch to OLED screens. This, to a certain extent, makes Korean screen makers even more invincible.
According to the 2017 financial report released by JDI in May, JDI's revenue declined from the previous year in 2017, and the net loss also increased by 681% compared with the previous year.
JDI pointed out in its financial report that for its changes in revenue and profit in 2017, it was on the one hand that its big customer's smartphones started to use OLED screens, which reduced the demand for LCD screens. On the other hand, it was due to small and medium size panels. Competition in the market has increased, resulting in a decline in revenue and profit.
Since the main business of JDI is the panel, the major customers mentioned in the financial report are actually technology giants. Apple launched the iPhone X smart phone with OLED panel in 2017. Its panel is exclusively supplied by Samsung, which also leads to The number of Apple's purchase screens from JDI has been significantly reduced from the previous year, resulting in serious impact on revenue and net profit, and making the financially tight JDI situation even more severe.
Currently, the only one that can get more benefits is Samsung Display. At present, they are also the only OLED supplier for the iPhone. It is reported that Samsung has occupied more than 95% of the global OLED market for mobile devices.
On the whole, there is only one window left for JDI. According to the news from the supply chain, 3 smartphones will be launched this year by Apple. The cheaper models will discard the OLED screen and use the LCD screen. And it is expected that the cheap models will be the best of the three new iPhones launched, and therefore have the opportunity to boost JDI's recovery in 2018.
In addition to JDI accident, iPhone 2019 will be fully switched to an OLED screen, which will also cause China's smartphone industry chain to follow suit. At present, BOE, Huaxing Optoelectronics, etc. have started to layout.
Taking BOE as an example, China's first, the world's second 6th-generation flexible AMOLED production line - BOE Chengdu's 6th generation flexible AMOLED production line achieved product light in May 2017, and achieved mass production delivery in October of the same year; Mianyang Flexible 6th Generation The line has been completed and is expected to be mass-produced in 2019.
In addition, the BOE announcement in March this year shows that it will invest in the sixth-generation flexible AMOLED production line in Chongqing. This is already the third production line of their layout. The total production capacity is 48,000 glass substrates per month, and the size is 1500mm×1850mm. , The product is mainly used in mobile display products such as mobile phones, is expected to put into operation in 2020. (Proofreading / Blue Sky)
2. Apple's use of OLED for all new iPhones next year is extremely low;
According to Bloomberg News, JP Morgan analyst Jay Kwon wrote in the research report that the possibility that Apple will use OLEDs for all new iPhones next year is extremely low, partly because Apple made such a decision. It is too early and there is a potential product positioning conflict.
Shares of LCD-related companies fell on Tuesday, mainly due to false market warnings, which may rebound in the near term; Maintain the basic forecast of 'Two OLEDs and one LCD model' in 2019.
Takashi Takashi, an analyst at Takayama, said that media reports about Apple had not been confirmed by related companies, and OLED supplier Samsung Electronics, LG Display and LCD supplier Japan Display, Miyoshi Sanmi’s stock price reaction was overreacting; it’s impossible to have all of 2019 iPhone models are changed to OLED. Sina US stocks
3.IHS: Global OLED TV shipments increased by 115.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018;
IHS Markit announced on May 29 that global TV shipments in the first quarter of 2018 increased 7.9% year-on-year to 50.6 million units. According to IHS statistics, LCD TV shipments increased 7.5% year-on-year to 50.1 million units, and OLED TVs came out at the same time. The volume of goods increased by 115.8% year-on-year to 470,000 units.
Global LCD TV shipments fell by 3.6% in 2017. IHS pointed out that the decline in average retail prices was not as expected, resulting in the impact of consumer demand in many regions. However, the decline in LCD panel prices from the end of 2017 to early 2018 led to the first quarter of 2018 Prices have changed. At the same time, TV brands have increased their shipments in some key emerging markets due to the start of the 2018 Football Match.
Paul Gagnon, executive director of IHS Markit, pointed out that emerging markets such as Latin America usually have strong seasonal demand related to the World Cup. He also mentioned that TV demand in Eastern Europe is expected to rise as the World Cup starts in Russia.
In the first quarter of 2018, Latin American TV shipments increased by 40% year-on-year, and 50-inch (or greater) TV shipments grew significantly. According to IHS Markit’s survey of 34 countries, over 100 retailers, Latin The average television sales price in the Americas ranks first among emerging markets.
In 8 regions, China had the lowest average selling price, at US$446, with an average size of 47.3 inches. On the other hand, Western Europe ranked the second highest in terms of 4K shipments, with the average price ranking the highest in all markets. (over $712).
Samsung Electronics Co. expects TV market demand to increase year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018, driven by the growth of major football events and emerging markets in the world. Samsung expects to launch 8K and Micro LED TVs in the second half of the year. IHS
4.TCL Group: Structure adjustment eagle wings Panel star underestimate the leading;
The company's business structure adjustment, valuation anchor switch brings the market value to increase. TCL Group is the only domestic consumer electronics leader that is vertically integrated from upstream LCD panel, midstream module to downstream terminal machine. Revenue has exceeded 100 billion since 2014. , Net profit 2014-2016 compound annual growth rate -28.94%, The Group's diversified business is large but not strong, the profitability of terminal products business is weak, which conceals the high-quality assets that entered the profit release period Huaxing Optoelectronics, 2017 China Star Optoelectronics net profit 48.62 Billion yuan, net interest rate is 16%. According to company plan, it is expected to complete business restructuring in 2019. The Group will only retain semi-conductor displays based on China Star Optoelectronics, sales of light assets such as logistics and financial ventures, and the valuation of its end-products business will be diluted. The center will switch from a diversified home appliance company to the semiconductor display industry. The future is expected to compete with the leading domestic panel leader, BOE.
The proportion of the Group's holdings of China Star increased to 86%. The decline in the price of the panel has a limited impact on the results of the return of the mother. Huaxing panel shipments accounted for 15% of the global market share of 15%, but with the advantage of the Group's entire industry chain, China Stars accounted for six TV sets in China. Brand manufacturers' panel procurement market share ranked first with 24%. Large-size LCD panel prices dropped by 20%+ from 2017H2, mainly due to new capacity release and reversal of supply and demand. Judging by the 2018 sports events, global LCD TV sales boosted 3 % or so, plus a TV panel to increase by 1.6 inches per year will effectively absorb new production capacity, large-size panel prices or is expected to stabilize in 2018Q3. Small-size panel flexible AMOLED in short supply, full screen import LTPS as an alternative, change the screen aspect ratio directly increase the panel Demand area, It is expected that the downward trend of the LTPS small panel price will slow down in 2018. Taking into account the increase in the proportion of the Group's holdings of China Star to 86%, the impact of the entire year's price drop on the net profit of China Star has been limited (down 13%).
After T1 depreciation 2019H1 is completed, Huaxing Optoelectronics enters the profit release period. The depreciation of the 2019H1 T1 project put into operation in 2011 is completed, and is expected to decrease by 500 million yuan and 1.9 billion yuan respectively in 2018-2019; the second phase of 20173 in T3 project 6.5-generation line will be realized. Production, starting from 2018, has provided Xiaomi mobile phones with a full screen, which offers a large space for profit release. It is expected that China Star Optoelectronics will have a net profit of RMB 3.8 billion, RMB 5.2 billion and RMB 7.1 billion in 2018-2020, and will contribute RMB 3.3 billion in net profit to the parent company, RMB 3.8 billion. With RMB 5.1 billion, the company will increase the acquisition of 10.09% equity of Huaxing by RMB 4.034 billion, and realize the 1.79% shares of Huaxing’s management company holding shares. At the same time, it will launch two employee stock ownership plans, and the performance release will be strong.
Loss of communication and loss of multimedia led to the recovery of profitability of the Group. After the sale of 49% of the company’s mobile communications business to Ziguang Group, Yunnan City Investment and the new strategic management team, it is expected to substantially reduce losses by around RMB 1.8 billion in 2018; Thanks to the high growth in overseas markets such as North America, net profit is expected to increase by 20% from the same period of last year to a net increase of 140 million yuan, which will boost the Group's net profit to 50%.
Asset revaluation builds a safety margin, and valuation switching provides upside. After revaluing the company's various logistics and financial control business values, it is believed that the corresponding market value is RMB 62.3 billion, and the stock price has a higher margin of safety. Taking into account the diversification of company's business, the use of segment valuation Valuation method is estimated. It is expected that the net profit of the company in 2018-2020 will be 3.999 billion yuan, 4.822 billion yuan and 6.264 billion yuan (not considering the business structure adjustment), corresponding to EPS of 0.30, 0.36 and 0.46 yuan per share, respectively, in 2018 A reasonable market value of 492-606 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price range of 3.64-4. .4 yuan / share, corresponding to 13% -39% of the upside, the first coverage given to increase holdings. Securities Times
5. TV panel quotes such as 'free fall' diving, foreign investors, insolence, AUO;
Panel quotes stumble endlessly, foreign JPMorgan Chase, HSBC’s latest views both look down on the outlook of the panel industry, JP Morgan more pointedly, TV panel quotes such as 'free fall' diving, will be dual tiger innocent, AUO fundamentals impact .
According to Zhang Heng, an analyst at JPMorgan securities and technology industry, the Panel Tigers reported an excellent second quarter earnings. However, according to market interviews, panel demand continued to slump. Since the second quarter, the quotation has continued to fall, and in May it has accelerated the price decline. 32吋, 40 The collapse of the panel crashed, especially the 32-inch panel fell to near the cost.
Zhang Heng pointed out that the 32-inch panel fell rapidly, and the decline may slow down, but the panel maker has already shifted production capacity to other size products. On the other hand, the mainland's 10.5 generation of BOE products shipped in April, for 65, 55-inch panel prices Further pressure was formed. TV sales were not ideal on Labor Day in Mainland China. According to AVC statistics, TV sales decreased by 9% year-on-year, and revenue was also reduced by 11% compared to the same period last year. Mainland TV panel stocks are still one to one higher than normal levels. Two weeks.
In contrast to Taiwanese performances, Zhang Heng believes that Innolux’s profit in the last quarter may be the last quarter before continuous losses. The outlook for panel shipments in the second quarter appears to be below seasonality, and the average ASP of products There are also murmurs. AUO expects to remain flat in the first quarter, while Innolux expects the recession to be in single digits. Tama has raised its dual-Tiger operating status in the first quarter earnings report but maintained the panel industry's decline.
HSBC Securities pointed out that in May, the TV panel ASP was declining, reflecting the serious outlook of the panel industry. The slowdown in June is expected to slow down, but the trend of continued decline in prices in the third quarter is established.
Hong Ximin, HSBC Securities's technology industry analyst, said that in the IHS PriceWise statistics, the TV panel ASP decreased by 4% to 11% in May, and the average annual ASP decrease from 29% in April to 34%, which was originally pessimistic with HSBC in the quarter. The views are consistent.
HSBC predicts that the decline in the June quoted price will slow down, mainly because some brands have the opportunity to prepare for the second half of the busy season. The panel maker may also consider reducing the use of production capacity. HSBC expects the ratio of panel and TV panels to drop to 28% in May 2016. During the downturn in April of 27%, the downtrend may slow down. However, with the increase of pressure in the mainland supply chain, innocent development, AUO's fundamentals are still cautious.