Key points
1. Air-conditioning domestic sales have obvious seasonality. According to China Yikang's 2008-2017 retrospection, April-July is probably the peak period of terminal sales, and retail sales account for 53-58% of the whole year, which is in line with the cooling of air conditioners. The leading characteristics match. According to Industry Online 2008-2017, the peak period of domestic sales for the manufacturers is from March to June, and the shipments account for about 40% of the whole year. Leading terminal sales in terms of time. Between the distribution and the off-season distribution characteristics represented by Gree and other companies. The short-to-medium-term fluctuations in terminal demand are determined by the weather, real estate boom, and air-conditioning inventory cycles; the impact of the inventory cycle is reflected by the product price strategy.
2. Does the hot weather inevitably lead to strong sales of air conditioners? According to the China Meteorological Administration, during the past five years, 2013, 16 and 17 years, the summer heat struck, and in 14 and 15 years, it has encountered cool summers. In terms of volume, From 2013 to 2016, the annual sales volume of China Yikang corresponded to 21%, 19%, 21% and 23% of the annual sales within the industry's online year respectively. It can be seen that the sample of Yikang in the same period has relatively consistency. It is difficult to understand that the Yikang 13- The retail volume in 16 years hovered above and below 13.8 million units. Terminal demand did not significantly reflect the difference between hot summer and cool summer; this was also in line with our previous continuous tracking of Greemei's terminal sales, the duopoly's terminal market in 2014-2016. The sales volume is roughly the level of 4,000 to 44 million units per year. In 2017, the air-conditioning retail business boomed. Terminal sales achieved a 20% or even higher growth, which is in line with the strong summer heat and sales characteristics.
3. The determinants of end-user demand also come from real estate and inventory cycles. Why does the 'high-temperature effect' of terminal retailing fail in 14-16 but it will be fulfilled in 2017? All factors that affect demand are the real estate cycle and the inventory cycle. Changes in the company’s business strategy. The boom in real estate sales in 2013 and in the period 2014-2016Q1, the domestic air-conditioning market experienced a period of rapid increase in channel inventory from a rapid increase to a struggling cycle, during which there was a 16-month decline in air-conditioning ASP. The promotion promoted 14Q3-15Q4's terminal retail, but may also partially overdraw terminal demand in 2016. The terminal sales in 2017 was a result of the favorable resonance caused by the post-occurrence period of real estate and the hot summer. In addition, the average amount of household ownership Improvement is the long-term driving force for the expansion of the air-conditioning market. The high temperature of summer heat and the price reduction of products can be regarded as the catalyst that triggers the need for air-conditioning update and increase of ownership per household.
4. The inventory cycle caused the fluctuation of manufacturers' shipments to increase. Manufacturers shipped = terminal sales + channel inventory. In the case of relatively stable terminal demand, the inventory cycle intensified and amplified the volatility of manufacturers' shipments. According to Industry Online, in 2014, manufacturers achieved 12.5% growth through ultra-stamp shipments, and the demand for terminals failed to synchronize, creating a backlog of inventory; 2015H2-2016H1 achieved inventory reduction through price cuts, and vendor shipments continued to decline for 2015-2016. Afterwards, in 2017, the demand for terminals improved, the low base and the low inventory of channels led the manufacturers to achieve 47% high growth.
Domestic air conditioner sales have obvious seasonality
The domestic sales of air conditioners have obvious seasonality. According to China Yikang's retrospection from 2008 to 2017, the period from April to July is probably the peak period of terminal sales, and the retail sales accounted for 53-58% of the whole year, which is a function-dominant factor in air conditioning and cooling. The characteristics are consistent. According to Industry Online 2008-2017, the peak period for domestic shipments of manufacturers is from March to June, and the shipments account for about 40% of the annual total, leading to terminal sales in terms of time. Between the distribution and the off-season distribution characteristics represented by Gree and other companies. The short-term fluctuations in terminal demand are determined by the weather, real estate boom, and air-conditioning inventory cycles; the impact of the inventory cycle is reflected by the price strategy.
Online hot selling is mainly reflected in June and July, seasonal performance is more obvious. According to the monthly sales of Taobao+Tmall air conditioner in the past year, the online sales peak in June, July and November, of which November Mainly stimulated by the Double 11 Shopping Festival, not related to seasonal factors.
Does the hot weather inevitably bring air conditioning to the terminal?
In 2013, 16 and 17 years, the summer heat struck. In 2014 and 15 years, it hit the summer.
According to the “China Climate Bulletin” issued by the China Meteorological Administration, in the summer of 2013, the strongest high-temperature heat wave has emerged in the south of China since 1951. The high coverage above 40°C is more than three times normal, and it is the largest since 1961. The number of billboards near the station spontaneously ignited. In 2016, China’s summer temperature reached the highest level in history, which was 0.9°C higher than the same period of the normal year, and the number of high-temperature days was large. The range of influence was wide. The daily maximum temperature in many places broke the historical extreme. In summer 2017, the whole country The average temperature is 21.7°C, which is 0.8°C higher than the same period of the normal year. It is tied with 2013 as the second highest since 1961, second only to 2016 (21.8°C).
In the summer of 2014, the national average temperature was 21.1°C, which was only 0.2°C higher than normal in the same period of the normal year. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, there was an unusually cool summer with a low temperature of 0.6°C. Among them, continuous low temperature and rainy weather appeared in August, and the temperature was low in most regions. From 2 to 3°C, including Anhui and Jiangsu, the average temperature was the lowest since 1961. In the summer of 2015, the national average temperature was 21.2°C, which was only 0.3°C higher than the same period of the year. Among them, temperatures in most parts of the Middle East were close to normal or lower than normal. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Chongqing, northern Guizhou, and other places are 0.5–1°C lower, while the local areas in Anhui are 1–2°C lower, and cool summers appear in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
In terms of volume size, 2013-2016, China Yikang's annual sales correspond to 21%, 19%, 21% and 23% of the industry's online sales for the year, respectively. Yes, the retail sales of China Yikang in 13-16 years hovered above and below 13.8 million units. The terminal demand did not significantly reflect the difference between the summer heat and the cool summer; this also coincided with the previous situation in which we continued to track Greemei’s terminal sales. The duopoly in 2014 -In 2016, the terminal sales volume in the domestic market was roughly 4,000 to 44 million units per year. In 2017, it was a boom year for air-conditioning retail sales. Terminal sales achieved a 20% or even higher growth, which seems to be in line with the strong summer heat and sales characteristics.
It seems to be contrary to common sense judgments. The “smooth heat” has no obvious driving effect on the sales of air conditioners. In the 13/16/17 year, the sales volume in the Yikang season (April-July) increased by 12.4%/6.9%/5.9% year-on-year. The speed is not the same; in 2013, although the year-on-year growth of air-conditioning retail sales was relatively high, it was still less than the overall retail sales growth of air-conditioners (15.9%). That is to say, the increase in air-conditioning sales in 2013 was not mainly driven by the peak season. From another perspective, The proportion of annual sales during peak season sales can also measure the importance of peak season sales, but in the three 'Summer' years of 13/16/17, the annual sales of peak season are lower than the historical average level (2009). ~ The average proportion of peak season in 2017).
In addition, the 'cool summer' air conditioning terminal sales suppression is not absolute. In the summer of 2014, the weather was cool, retail sales rose 5% in the peak season, still higher than the annual growth rate of 1.7%, and the annual sales ratio of the peak season It is also higher than the historical average. The “cool summer” effect was more apparent in 2015. Retail sales in the peak season fell by 6.6% year-on-year, and annual retail sales fell by 0.9% year-on-year.
Terminal demand is also affected by real estate and product prices
As mentioned above, why the 'high-temperature effect' of terminal retailing failed in 2016 but fulfilled in 2017? It can be seen that in addition to weather factors, the determinants of terminal demand also come from real estate and inventory cycles. The impact of the inventory cycle through the sales process In the price strategy to reflect.
In 2013, real estate sales boomed, and in the period of 2014-2016Q1, the domestic air-conditioning market experienced a complete cycle of rapid increase in inventory and struggles. During this period, the ASP of air-conditioner prices declined in 16 months, and the promotion promoted 2014Q3-2015Q4. The terminal retails, but may also partially overdraw the terminal demand in 2016. The terminal sales in 2017 is the result of the favorable resonance caused by the post-real estate cycle and the hot summer.
The expansion of the domestic air-conditioning market, as well as the long-term driving force of increased household ownership, can be regarded as a catalyst that triggers the need for air-conditioning upgrades and increased ownership per household.
Inventory cycle leads to increased volatility in shipments from manufacturers
The inventory cycle is the reason why the manufacturer's shipping fluctuations are magnified. Manufacturers' shipments = terminal sales + channel inventory. In the case of relatively stable terminal demand, the inventory cycle has intensified and amplifies the volatility of the manufacturers' shipments. In 2017, the growth rate of vendor shipments (Industrial Online 48%) was also significantly faster than the terminal sales (estimated 20%. China Yikang Data was not quoted here: Because the volume scale of Midea in 2017 was higher than that of 2016 The annual decline rate is 7pct to 17%, which is expected to be related to the rapid development of air-conditioning electricity suppliers. ) According to Industry Online, in 2014, manufacturers achieved 12.5% growth through ultra-conventional press cargo, and the demand for terminals failed to synchronize, causing a backlog of inventory; 2015H2-2016H1 passed Reduced prices to achieve inventory, manufacturers shipments continued to decline year-on-year from 2015 to 2016. Then, in 2017, end-user demand was booming. Under the background of low base and low inventory of channels, manufacturers were driven to achieve 47% high growth.
