Since mid-May, the polymerization MDI market has entered a stalemate stage. Under a long-term confrontation, the market has been tepid. Even accidents involving devices have not caused the market to fluctuate, which has surprised traders.
The industry believes that although the manufacturers control the goods, equipment maintenance, but can not help but suppress the market, so the road to polymerization MDI uplink is still difficult.
According to Li Hong, a market analyst at Shandong Zhonghai Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd., said that Shanghai Secco accidents have wiped out the previous MDI market, but the impact is limited. Looking at the market, the bullish factors that can really reverse the market have not yet emerged.
The first is that in addition to the Shanghai Hengsmai stop and overhaul, the Wanhua and Cosworth installations in the market can operate normally. The second is the tepid market in the downstream market. Buyers do not pay for pushing up. Even if the market is popular Raised, but under the pressure of shipments, the dark fall of some businesses quickly formed a mainstream in the market.
Industry insiders believe that BASF's MDI equipment will be overhauled at the end of the month, but the factory overhaul is planned, and inventory is prepared in advance. This may be the reason for speculation in the market, but the lack of force in the downstream will still limit the rebound rate.
'Yantai Wanhua's annual production capacity of 600,000 tons has a maintenance plan in June. In addition, Cos has a plan to reduce the burden. If this can be done, it will probably stimulate downstream purchasing enthusiasm.' Li Hong said.
The market for aniline, the raw material for polymerization of MDI, is currently decreasing in width, with a drop of 750-800 yuan (t price, the same below) last week, and the price is running to around 12,150 yuan. The downstream operating rate in the Jiangsu market is low, and traders said that there is not much inquiry, Trading volume was light, demand pressure from the demand side continued to be bearish, and there was no clear plan for the date of the downstream resumption. Local manufacturers mainly took the contract orders to take the goods.
According to Zhang Yuanjiang, deputy general manager of Shandong Jinling Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., the factors that restrict the market trend of aniline are still mainly bearish. At present, the domestic plant operating rate is about 42.8%, but with the restart of the Tianji plant, the stock market outlook will increase. The current supply and demand situation analysis, inventory will increase slightly, trading mainly to just need.
In addition, the recent rectification of the three major chemical industrial parks in Jiangsu Province and local and downstream construction along the Yangtze River have also been affected to varying degrees, affecting the demand for aniline. Market participants are not confident that the aniline market will continue to decline, and it is difficult to form a support for the polymerization of MDI on the cost side.
In the long-term, demand has become a rally for the aggregate MDI market.
China's MDI is often used in household appliances and construction. Li Hong said that the home appliance market downstream of MDI terminals is in a downturn recently. In the context of tightening industry funding and unrelieved regulation, real estate sales growth has slowed down. The margin is limited. From the perspective of the refrigerator industry, the first few months of 2018 experienced the largest market of 'Waterloo' in three years.
In terms of specific markets, the domestic rigid foam polyether market has undergone a weak consolidation and narrow range consolidation. Due to weak demand support, the market is trading at a low level and the new singles are following poorly. The main factory has to deliver pre-orders. The latter is accompanied by a drop in propylene oxide. The prices of rigid foam fall or fall, causing drag on raw materials.
Due to the important meeting in Qingdao, if downstream companies involved in the region near Shandong are shut down, demand will be further tightened and will continue to curb the downstream purchase of MDI raw materials. In addition, since May, the downstream end of aggregated MDI will enter the off-season. The limited orders of enterprises, suppressing the procurement enthusiasm. Many affected by the environmental protection inspection, the demand is even more deserted.
In summary, although the polymerization of MDI market is favorable to promote, the tight supply is not enough to dominate the market. Under the influence of bearish factors such as low demand and superposition of cost weakness, the market stalemate is difficult to break temporarily. Later, with large factories such as Wanhua, etc. After the inspection and reduction measures have come true, the market may enter the upstream channel.