In the early morning of May 19th, Beijing time, the China-US bilateral economic and trade consultations issued a joint statement, declaring: 'China and the United States reach consensus and do not fight trade war'. The content of the joint statement stated that China will take effective measures to substantially reduce the deficit of US trade in goods against China. In the follow-up, China and the United States will strengthen trade cooperation in the fields of energy, agricultural products, medical care, high-tech products, and finance.
Recalling that during the escalation of the Sino-US trade war, the Chinese side wanted to impose tariff measures on soybean, agricultural products, automobiles, and chemical products originating in the United States with a tax rate of 25%, and the proportion of the primary shape.<0.94的聚乙烯(LDPE)囊括于其中。此次中美双方达成不打贸易战的共识，也就是说对美LDPE也将不再额外加征关税。据了解，中国每年来自美国的聚乙烯进口量约占中国聚乙烯总进口量的6%左右，因此是否加征关税，对中短线时期国内的聚乙烯行情都暂不会产生较大影响。但此前我们也曾讲过，美国页岩气的爆发，势必带动其化工品产能的爆发，其中美国聚乙烯的产能在2020年左右也会有较大的增长，数据显示，若美国已公布的聚乙烯项目在2020年前顺利投产，则美国聚乙烯的产能将增至2450万吨，届时美国聚乙烯过剩产能约达300万吨。
Let us look at the current status of the domestic polyethylene industry.
Supply and Demand Status of Domestic Polyethylene Products
With the successful commissioning of CSPC's Phase II plant, the total capacity of polyethylene equipment in China has reached 17.96 million tons/year. According to statistics from Zhongyu, the current annual demand for PE products in China is approximately 26.5 million tons (2017 (Annual data) That is to say, there is still a supply gap of nearly 10 million tons of PE in China, and this part of the gap is basically covered by imported materials.
Domestic Polyethylene Production Profits
At present, China's polyethylene production route is divided into two types: oil and coal based on its raw materials. Among them, the profits of coal-based enterprises are relatively stable, while the profits of oil-based enterprises are affected by crude oil. Recently, international crude oil hits 8 again. 2. The profits of oil-produced PE enterprises have been significantly reduced.
With the rise of international oil prices and the relative low level of domestic polyethylene products, petrochemical companies’ production profits have been significantly reduced, and price reductions have also become more cautious. This has also opened the arbitrage window for imported resources in the port area. As a product with high import dependence, if low-price U.S. resources flow out later, it can be foreseen that China will be its key export target, and low-priced goods will also have a certain impact on the domestic polyethylene industry.
The international competition of polyethylene products is getting bigger and bigger. The game between domestically produced materials and imported materials is also fierce. Currently, domestic polyethylene producers are stepping up their efforts to develop more high-end special materials to make up for the gaps in the domestic high-end materials market in order to achieve Adjust the industrial structure of the industry and increase the competitiveness of its products.