On May 19, China and the United States issued a joint statement on bilateral economic and trade consultations in Washington. The statement stressed that 'the two sides agreed to continue to maintain high-level communications on this issue and actively seek solutions to their respective economic and trade issues'. The joint statement means that in the short term, trade frictions. There is substantial easing.
The key elements of this Sino-U.S. Joint Statement include: 'The two sides agreed that effective measures will be taken to substantially reduce the US trade deficit with China’s goods. To meet the growing consumer demand of the Chinese people and promote high-quality economic development, China will increase a great deal of The United States buys goods and services. It also helps the U.S. economic growth and employment.
The announcement of the Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultation joint statement means that the biggest uncertainty in the international market has finally disappeared. From the current results, the expansion of imports may have some negative impact on short-term GDP and some domestic industries, but on the one hand, trade frictions eased. It is conducive to the stability of the external environment of China's economic growth. Second, the expansion of imports will help to improve the side effects of the long-term imbalances in China's current account. It will also promote the further transformation and upgrading of the industry.
This time, the trade friction between China and the United States eased, and the analysis of styrene analysts showed that the impact on styrene was mainly reflected in the following aspects:
First, Sino-US trade friction easing will reduce the concerns of the styrene market players about external risks. After major progress in the Sino-US trade negotiations, a major risk of recent market concern was circumvented. Although the economic trend is still uncertain, consider The easing of the trade war helped boost the risk appetite. In China's domestic stock market, the bulk futures market may show a rebound in the short term, and the shock range is expected to move upwards.
Second, China chooses to reduce its surplus with the United States. The drawbacks are mainly reflected in the short-term impact on GDP. Considering that net exports have contributed to the decline in the economy, it is expected that the probability of the economy will slow down steadily, and there is even a risk of surpassing expectations. Judging from the economic data released by China, the growth rate of urban real estate transactions in the first half of May was higher than that in April. From the perspective of commodity prices, the monitoring data of Jinlian Chuang indicated that rebar has rebounded from May to the end of April. 2.3 %, Cement prices have rebounded 3.9% in May from April to April. These data all indicate that China's real estate industry has moved backwards in this year's start-up season, so the real estate industry may have a limited decline.
Again, according to past data, Sinopec’s US crude oil imports accounted for about 10% of total U.S. crude oil exports for the entire year. It is the largest U.S. crude oil trader in the Asia Pacific region. The Sino-U.S. trade negotiations agreed to increase U.S. energy. Exports, it is expected that Sinopec's imports of US crude oil will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2018, and the total import volume is expected to exceed 10 million tons. Under this circumstance, the production cost of pure benzene in the upstream styrene raw materials may decline.
Finally, as trade war concerns faded, China agreed to take effective measures to substantially reduce the US trade deficit with China’s goods and contribute to U.S. economic growth. Coupled with the recent Fed Chairman’s speech, Powell’s statement has always been partial hawks, so the continued strength of the U.S. dollar will become a big one. Probabilistic events. In this context, the import costs of styrene importers will increase further and will effectively support market prices.
In a comprehensive view, the impact of the trade negotiations on styrene outweighed the disadvantages, especially in the strong atmosphere of styrene market, and if the fundamentals are optimistic, the external news will boost the market. The long-term mentality of the styrene-producing market will effectively support the styrene market price in the short term.