A data released by the General Administration of Customs recently attracted a lot of attention. According to statistics, China’s import of copper ore and concentrates in March was 1,601,311 tons, down 1.6% year-on-year. Of these, Peru surpassed Chile for the third consecutive month to become China’s The largest importer of copper mines was imported with 46,2012 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.53%. China imported 389,314 tons of copper from Chile in March, a slight increase of 0.74% year-on-year.
Demand side: China and New Energy form a solid support
'We think the market has already digested the news that copper supply exceeded expectations. Copper prices have fallen deeper in the first quarter. We should focus on the supporting role of end-use consumption on prices in the later period. ' Guotai Junan Futures anticipates increased production of copper mines in Chile, globally in 2017 The profits of major mining companies have increased substantially, which has promoted the expansion of existing mines and the production of new mines. The economic data of major countries are still bright, and with the support of the overall improvement of the end consumer industry in China, the global copper production will resume rapid growth in 2018, with a year-on-year growth. 3.5%, while the year-on-year decrease of 1.7% in 2017.
Molly Shutt, a BMI commodities analyst, said that in 2018 the output growth of the international copper market will be supported by the start of new mine operations, while the increase in international market demand will keep the market tight. 'At the international level, China will still be the largest copper mine. One of the stone importing countries. We expect that the country's refined copper production will achieve a steady growth in 2018, which means that copper ore imports will continue to increase. 'She stressed.
In addition, BMI expects refined copper production in developed markets such as the United States and the European Union and emerging markets such as Brazil to increase. This is due to the rise in copper prices, which are the largest importers of copper mines in the world. In addition, she pointed out that last year The strong demand for copper from the electric vehicle production market in the second half of the year has further pushed up prices. 'More copper is used in electric vehicles, compared with the use of conventional internal combustion engines, which will surely lead to global supply shortages and support prices in the coming years. ' she says.
BMI expects that the global market balance of copper will remain tight on the basis of strong demand growth and the forecast of an average price of 7,000 US dollars per ton this year.
Supply side: New projects in Africa and South America
The market research company BMI Research (BMI) predicted in March’s “Global Industry Overview” of the copper market research report that there will be positive growth in the African copper industry in the future. In addition, as prices continue to rise, African copper mining industry project development will It has picked up. New copper projects are underway in Congo (Kinshasa), Botswana, Namibia and South Africa, which shows that the copper mining industry will continue to grow in Africa. The average annual growth rate of the copper industry is expected to be 3.6%.
Although the changing political situation in South America is the 'natural enemies' of exploration, it still can not stop the enthusiasm of capital.
According to Reuters, Anglo American may establish a new large-scale copper mine in Peru. Hennie Faul, head of Anglo American, said that the company is expected to submit the Quellaveco copper project to the board of directors in the middle of this year. It will also identify partners and cost issues. Ecuador has become a new destination for global copper exploration.
According to Bloomberg News, some of the world’s largest miners, including BHP Billiton, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd, Newcrest Mining Ltd., have established offices in the country in the past few months. Ecuador is currently developing the country’s first large-scale The copper mine, which is expected to be put into production in 2019. Ecuador’s Minister of Mines, Rebeca Illescas, said on April 26 that the government plans to open another 1.25% of its land in Ecuador this year for exploration and stimulate mining investment in Ecuador.
Major miners: bullish outlook
A recent BHP Billiton analysis report pointed out that comprehensively examining supply and demand in traditional applications and emerging technologies, copper will become an attractive commodity in the future, and list ten reasons for the bullish copper market, including gradual decline in copper grades. Lack of successful exploration findings, project investment risks, water shortages, reasonable market fluctuations such as supply side and China consumption, demand side of India's rise and other demand side and electrification of energy demand, traffic electrification, wind power and solar energy and other technology trends.
According to SMM News, in the first quarter, the output of the Rio Tinto copper mine was 139,300 tons, an increase of 65% from the same period of last year. Rio Tinto expects that the target of copper mine production in 2018 will remain unchanged at 510,000-610,000 tons; the output of refined copper will be 225,000~ Between 265,000 tons.
When attending the China Development High-Level Forum (CDF) on the company's future business development strategy, Vale, CEO of Vale, said that because he is optimistic about the economic prospects of China and the development of new energy vehicles and other industries, he will gradually reduce his dependence on iron ore in the future. And will gradually increase investment in the development of nickel, cobalt and copper and other metals.
Among the 26 super copper mines in the world, Australia’s BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and other companies have participated in the investment of 8 super copper mines, followed by Chile. Their companies have participated in the investment of 7 super copper mines, and China’s close neighbors also directly participate in the investment. The investment of 6 super copper mines.
In recent years, Chinese companies have also continued to expand China’s footprint in the global copper raw material market. Zijin Mining and Chinalco’s two copper mining areas have entered the ranks of the world’s super copper mines, and their output of the Minmetals’ copper mines has also topped the global top ten. People have seen the hope of China's copper companies, especially the Zijin's Kamoa copper mine and Chinalco's Tibet Duolong Mining Area.