Global power battery market demand
With the increase of vehicle life requirements, the demand for high energy density ternary batteries has increased significantly. It is estimated that 2020, new energy vehicles equipped with three yuan batteries will be expected to reach 1.8 million, accounting for more than 90% of total new energy vehicles. It is estimated that in 2018, domestic new energy vehicles are expected to have a demand of more than 28GWh for Sanyuan Battery, which corresponds to a market size of over 39 billion yuan. By 2020, the demand for Sanyuan Power Battery will increase to 76GWh, corresponding to a market size of over RMB 80 billion. The demand CAGR for CAGR is about 39% from 2018 to 2020, and the market CAGR is about 27% from 2018 to 2020.
2011-2017 Global Power Battery Market Demand and Growth Rate
Source: Forward-looking Industry Research Institute
China's power battery shipments
With the start of electric vehicles in China in 2011, the power battery industry entered an early stage of development, with annual shipments below 1GWh and only maintaining a small increase. According to prospective industry research institute, “Power battery PACK industry development prospects and investment strategic planning analysis According to the report, with the introduction of the subsidy policy in 2014, the industry entered an explosive development period. Power battery shipments climbed from 5.9 GWh in 2014 to 17.0 Gwh in 2015, a year-on-year increase of nearly 2 times. Battery shipment volume reached 30.5GWh, which is an increase of 80% from the previous year. Overall, as the key link of the new energy vehicle industry chain, the power battery industry will benefit from the growth of sales and penetration of new energy vehicles in the long term. Shipments of 39.2 GWh, with an increase of more than 30%. Combined with new energy vehicle production and sales forecast 2018 ~ 2020 power battery will continue high growth, CAGR about 30%.
China's Power Battery Pack Shipments and Growth Rates from 2011 to 2025
Source: Forward-looking Industry Research Institute
Since 2014, power battery installations have entered an explosive growth period, and the recovery of power batteries is gradually on the agenda. General domestic passenger cars and electric bus batteries will be retired in about 5 years, and taxi and logistics vehicle power batteries are generally 2 years old. Will be retired. According to this judgment, starting from 2018, China will have a large number of power batteries into the retirement period.
Passenger car is the dominant market, the trend of the three yuan lithium is obvious
From January to October 2017, the total installed capacity of domestic power batteries was approximately 18.1 GWh, of which the installed capacity of passenger cars reached 9.8GWH, accounting for 54% (30% of passenger cars and 16% of vehicles). Still battery types From the perspective of passenger cars, the proportion of three yuan lithium batteries has reached about 70%, and 52% of senior year 2016, the trend of the development of power batteries toward Sanyuan Lithium is evident.
Statistics of different battery installations in the first 10 months of 2017 (Unit: GWh)
Source: Forward-looking Industry Research Institute
In the field of Sanyuan Power Battery, the competitive landscape is relatively fragmented; in the Ningde era, the market share ranked first in 23.0%, the momentum in the market (10.1%), Fuengeng Technology (7.1%), and BYD (5.3%) were ranked 2/3/. 4th place, CR5 is approximately 49.4%.
Power lithium battery industry development direction
Encourage the development of high-energy-density technologies for power batteries. The Action Plan for Promoting the Development of Automotive Power Battery Industry, released in March 2017, clarified that the target for 2020 is that the specific energy of the power battery exceeds 300 Wh/kg, and the specific energy of the system Strive to achieve 260Wh/kg. China's current average power battery system power is about 115Wh/kg, and there is a big gap between the target value of 260Wh/kg. Therefore, constantly updating the battery technology to increase the battery energy density will be Power battery company's core competitiveness.
The subsidy threshold for increasing battery energy density conforms to the general direction of policies encouraging the use of high-energy-density batteries. Regardless of how the future policies change, technological innovation and the ability to control costs will be the core competitiveness of power battery companies.
