In recent years, there have been many changes in the circulation and consumption of the Chinese auto market. The growth rate of new vehicles has declined and the used car market has entered a new stage of growth. The high-end trend of consumption is also showing some new changes. Imported models are becoming smarter, greener. The direction of development.
Recently, at the 2018 China Automotive Forum sub-forum, the guests and experts and scholars expressed their views on the current consumption and trends of the Chinese auto market.
Policy changes open up more space for automobile circulation
As a strategic pillar industry of China, the auto industry plays a decisive role in the country’s social life. In recent years, automobile consumption has gradually increased.
At the forum, Xiao Rongchen, Director of the Policy Department of the Department of Market System Construction of the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that the characteristics of the new normal economy have performed very well in the automotive market. The slowdown from the growth of new car sales to the growth momentum reflects the acceleration of the supply side of the entire industry. The basic status of structural reforms.
In 2017, the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Administrative Measures for Automobile Sales" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures"). The "Measures" has a milestone significance in the development of China's automobile circulation system. The new automobile sales management method has broken the single system of car authorization. The changes brought to China's auto market are fundamental. In the coming period, the system with 4S shops and other authorization systems as the main body will still exist. After breaking the authorization, this diversified sales system will promote the automotive market. Healthy coordination and sustainable development will bring a steady stream of motive power and vitality. The "Measures" are issued to speed up the construction of a shared, conservation-minded, socialized automobile system and also open up a variety of sales forms for the e-commerce auto supermarket auto market. space.
According to reports, the future automobile market circulation will change from the self-built and self-use to the characteristics of co-building and sharing. Single-store single-products will change to multiple stores and multiple products. At the same time, car manufacturers or OEMs can sell their own cars through multiple channels and Products, while dealers can sell multiple brands of cars at the same time. In this way, consumers can purchase cars through multiple channels and enjoy more extensive and comprehensive social services.
Xiao Rongchen pointed out that advancing the building of a shared-type automobile system will help the center of gravity of the automobile circulation system. With the accelerated development of urbanization in the country, rural areas and third and fourth-tier cities have very large potential for automobile consumption. Then the “measures” The main purpose is to resolve the continuous sinking of the automobile circulation system and to turn the potential into a real driving force. This is of great significance to the development of new energy vehicles, including the development of automotive e-commerce.
Although the automobile market is saying that the growth rate has slowed down, it is still stable. The base number of China's auto market is relatively large. Even if there is only a 3% or 4% growth rate, the incremental part is very huge. I believe that the development space of the auto market will do It's getting bigger.' Xiao Rongchen said.
Imports of new energy vehicles will gradually increase
The data shows that from 2017 onwards, the auto import market is showing a recovery growth trend, and it has remained stable overall. Despite obvious and consecutive declines in 2015 and 2016, the analysis of the reasons is not a decline in overall market demand. The localization of some hot-selling models is a major cause of the decline in the total number of imported cars. With the slowdown of localization in 2017, the total volume of car imports has returned to the scale of 1.2 million vehicles.
Jia Wei, Chairman of China Imported Automobile Trading Co., Ltd., analyzed the current consumption trends of the imported car market, the consumption structure is consistent with that of domestic cars, and it is a process of continuous structural upgrading. At the same time, the B-class and C-class vehicles are subdivided. Shares will increase significantly, and the share of luxury brands, including new energy, will also increase. Parallel imports will continue to maintain rapid growth. Parallel imports will mainly supply high-end, personalized products to the market. The next two years will see new energy vehicles. Imports will gradually increase.
According to Jia Jun, from 2014 onwards, with the support of national policies, there has been rapid growth. In 2014 parallel import accounted for only 7.7%, which accounted for 14.2% in 2017. With the reduction of future tariffs, this situation will continue. The expansion. However, he believes that parallel imports will not expand indefinitely after reaching 20%, because there are still some restrictions on some sources of supply, including some supply prices.
In recent years, China's automobile parallel import pilot has achieved remarkable results. As of now, there are 17 provinces and cities, 20 ports, and parallel import pilots. In 2017, it reached 136,000 vehicles, an increase of 103% year-on-year. The pressure on foreign trade has increased significantly. Under the premise of a slowdown in economic growth, parallel importation can rise suddenly and is inseparable from policy construction. Xiao Rongchen stated that as the conditions mature, the scope of parallel import pilots will gradually expand, and with this reproducible experience, the replication will be accelerated. Promotion, parallel imports should be able to achieve greater development. Parallel import reflects the spirit of supply-side structural reforms. It not only meets the diversified and multi-level consumer demands from the source, but also has a stimulating effect on the entire automotive market. Let the reform of the auto market return to a rational return.
On the export side, Nielsen Vice President Zhang Zhenhua of Greater China believes that although Chinese companies are far ahead of foreign car companies in formulating, their prices are always low due to lack of brand power. In recent years, as Chinese brands have stepped out, they have stepped out. With more and more manufacturers, faster and faster, there are indeed great opportunities. For this reason, in the process of going overseas, Chinese companies should unite and win the market together.
Driverlessness is the main factor in disruptive change
When talking about the issue of trend change, Kang Bohan, partner of Roland Berger Greater China Office, pointed out that the future has a profound impact on the automotive industry will come from four trends, namely MADE.
Among them, M stands for mobility, and it is also the consumer, the owner, who says that this change from having a car to a car is an increasingly common change. A means automation, which means that people have more and more opportunities to drive. D. stands for digitization. Each car and service attached to the car will become part of the Internet. E will represent the trend of trams. Trams will have a tremendous impact on the world and will bring enormous changes to the industry. , so that the performance of the car also changes a lot. When these four major trends are combined, it is what we call the subversive environment.
Kang Bohan believes that the future of automotive autopilot will provide a kind of service, and it will be cheaper. It will be much cheaper than the current drop of a taxi. This kind of shared service will be a kind of social expectation.
However, according to statistics, not everyone likes auto-piloting. Automated driving in the Indian market is not advancing quickly. American consumers, in their choice, may prefer to drive instead of using autonomous vehicles. Especially in cities with a high population density, this trend is more likely.
Kang Bohan pointed out that in emerging economies, China and India all reflect different situations. Consumers may want to buy both autonomous vehicles and their own cars. Therefore, for auto manufacturers, How to provide a complete consumer solution is particularly important in light of the needs of the market and the attitudes of consumer groups, as well as the location and frequency of use of different consumer vehicles.
Now, some automobile manufacturers can already manufacture or develop a stereotyped, customized car model for a specific industry. These companies do not need to consider using traditional sales channels to promote their own customized vehicles. Instead, they will The specific industry needs special design and production.
In this business model, the company's supplier chain will become very simple and save retail channels. Such a demand is expected to reach 25 million vehicles by 2025.
This also indicates that a new model has emerged in the price strategy of corporate products, and the price will be 50% lower than that of traditional retail channels. Therefore, Chinese automakers must have sufficient pre-judgment, under the premise of low cost, good management. Their own team, strengthen operations, rationally distribute investment, increase investment in new energy vehicles, etc.
