As electric vehicles (EVs) become more affordable, ride sharing continues to grow and autonomous vehicles (AV) continue to 'invade' the urban market, urban traffic will quickly change over the next decade.
These changes are consistent with the evolution of cleaner, more decentralized and digital energy systems and services, and the increasing electrification of transport and other sectors.
Cities around the world have seen these changes, and many cities are experimenting with improving air quality, reducing traffic congestion and providing clean, reliable, and affordable energy for a growing population.
Utilities and other energy companies will play an important role in this transformation. Decision makers' decisions may determine the speed and scope of change.
Bain Consulting has pointed out three main advantages of urban transportation power in the latest report “Electric Vehicles for Smarter Cities: The Future of Energy and Mobility”.
• Reducing carbon emissions. The electrification of transport has laid the foundation for national and local ambitions to achieve clean energy transportation. Even without major changes in power generation (mainly coal, natural gas, and renewable energy), compared with internal combustion engines, electric vehicles CO2 emissions can still be reduced by 60%. In the United States, more than 20% of emissions are from light vehicles, so encouraging the promotion of electric vehicles will greatly benefit the improvement of air quality and the health of urban residents.
• Reduced mobility costs. With the drop in battery prices, electric cars will soon provide movie and individuals with cheaper mobile travel options. Considering the lower maintenance and operating costs, the total cost of ownership of electric vehicles (ie, how many owners Spending on the service life of the vehicle) should be balanced with the diesel locomotive in the next five years and continue to decline.
• Increase asset utilization and ancillary services. Electric vehicles will use the 'intelligent' payload to better utilize the assets of the power system – as long as they are charged when the system demand is low and discharged during peak demand periods. A large number of electric vehicles can also be adopted. The electricity stored in the battery is provided to the building or the grid to provide auxiliary services.
In order to obtain benefits, decision makers, citizens and stakeholders in various sectors must decide how to actively encourage these changes. Our research identified two clear paths.
1. Maximize potential
The current road to urban electrification has been a steady and gradual change. We call this proliferation. In many places, economic incentives encourage the purchase of privately-owned electric vehicles, which account for 95% of parking time and limit the actual Power mileage.
The current method is also based on today's private vehicle model deployment of electric vehicle charging infrastructure, mainly in the residential and commercial areas. The incomplete network of charging stations may hinder the business case of the operator charging, and if too many electric vehicles are charged at the same time will lead to the grid Instability - especially if this situation collides with the peak demand time on weekend nights.
Some forward-thinking cities are already thinking about how to adopt a future model, as autonomous driving and shared travel are becoming more common. In this model, most of the charging infrastructure that is under construction today may be outdated. Focus on accelerating The transitional cities will encourage those vehicles that can achieve high utilization rates, especially sharing the power supply of autonomous vehicles to increase electric mileage. They will deploy charging stations to meet the needs of future mobile travel modes and reasonably connect with the grid. Integration. They will consider how to achieve smart charging at the best possible time. It is estimated that by 2030, some cities in the United States could reach 35% of the electric mileage, the cost per mile can be reduced by 40%, and the congestion can also be reduced (see figure 1) .
(figure 1)
Numerous vehicles will increase the consumption of solar and wind power generation, reduce production and further reduce the need for total emissions. Public and commercial electric vehicles will help meet the demand curve through smarter charging, optimized power consumption and power generation. On the scale, The large number of electric vehicles put into use may also provide valuable auxiliary services for the grid.
In sum, the benefits of transition can quadruple the value of new social mobility patterns compared to diffusion. Utilities and energy companies have the opportunity to accelerate this change and take up a significant portion of the associated value. Major opportunities will include:
Smart charging. Dynamic pricing and integration with smart grids are the necessary combination of conditions for maximizing the value of smart charging for electric vehicles. Integration with other grid-edge technologies (such as solar panels) will also provide more flexibility. Utilities can not only benefit from smart charging revenue, but also reduce renewable energy consumption, offset high electricity prices, and reduce the cost of peak service loads (see Figure 2).
(figure 2)
New capital investment. In the market where power companies are responsible for deploying new charging infrastructure, these investments will help increase asset-based assets. In order to support the new demand for charging electric vehicles, related upgrades to substations and wire infrastructure are also needed. It will provide power companies with capital investment opportunities.
New services. With the deployment of charging infrastructure, new business models are emerging, from supporting artificial intelligence in buildings to providing mobile products and services to vehicle owners. These market opportunities will be those that are innovative and customer-centric. .
Additional sources of income. Electricity demand from the growing electric vehicle market means utilities and energy companies have the opportunity to generate additional revenue from electricity sales. If electricity demand grows faster than the utility’s total revenue needs, then Lower electricity prices.
Ancillary services. Electric vehicle operators with predictable capacity can provide excess power stored in the vehicle's battery to buildings or the grid. These services may not provide the same value as smart charging, but they can help with electric vehicles. The value transmission is extended to the grid operator.
2. Always ready to get value
For public utilities and energy managers, this broad transformation has brought several great opportunities - some have strengthened their current position (higher asset utilization, less renewable energy consumption) and other potential New potential (load growth, fee infrastructure investment, expanded customer relationships).
The three principles will help executives capture these sources of value:
The current construction of charging infrastructure may change in the future. The growth of liquidity services and autonomous traffic will change the mode of urban transport, reduce the number of vehicles on the road, and increase the use of these vehicles. Utilities and other energy companies should When investing in assets such as charging stations, it is planned accordingly. Today, most electric vehicles are installed in electric vehicle owners to collect the cost of private vehicles in homes and commercial premises. Continue to build infrastructure to achieve the proliferation phase is essential. However, with the mobile As the model changes, these charging stations may become under-resourced. With more electric vehicles on the road, some electric vehicles will change the charging position, facilitate the deployment of recharging charging infrastructure, and the long-distance fast charging process of highway lines. .
Develop strategies tailored to your location. Depending on factors such as energy production mix, shape of daily load curve, urban density, current commuting patterns, and public transport infrastructure, the best integration of energy and transportation systems will be very different. For example, in Paris, the public transportation system can accommodate half of all commuters, so investing in electrification and connecting electric vehicles to public transport hubs is a way to optimize energy use. Most commuters still ride compared to the San Francisco Bay Area. Private cars – This is a mobile model that requires different strategies. Each city needs to customize the way it deploys its electric vehicle infrastructure to adapt to the environment in an optimal manner and to maximize congestion, carbon emissions and grid reliability.
Recharging electric vehicles at the best time and place can reduce investment demand for peak power generation and improve the stability of the power grid, which will provide power companies with annual capital expenditures for deferral and energy savings of $100-200 per electric vehicle. The new load from electric vehicles may help ease the load growth in recent years.
