From January to March of 1818, China's auto import and export trade was fully strengthened, and the automobile trade deficit was relatively stable. In January-March, the import of automobile industry increased by 13%, while that of exports increased by 14%. There were new features of structural adjustment and trend differentiation. The long-term good fundamentals of the Chinese auto industry are relatively good. European imports of cars and parts continue to strengthen, and the demand for US imported car market performance is poor. It should not be related to special factors such as Sino-U.S. trade relations. The main reason is that European demand performance is better.
First, the overall trend of the import and export of the automotive industry
1, the overall analysis of automobile import and export
The import and export trend of China's auto industry experienced the balance of trade surplus before 2008 and the trade deficit since 2010. After 14 years of import trade volume reached 100.3 billion US dollars, the trend of imports and exports was generally weak.
In terms of U.S. dollars, the 18-year auto trade still has a large deficit, but it is relatively stable from January to March. In January-March, it imported 22.8 billion U.S. dollars and exported 20.3 billion U.S. dollars. The trade deficit reached 2.4 billion U.S. dollars, relative to 17 years. The progress of the US$7.1 billion in the year was almost the same. However, the relative balance of imports and exports in April-August of the 17th year was mainly due to the better performance of export growth.
2, 18-year trade balance of automobiles and parts
In 18 years, China’s overall trade continued to significantly improve its exports to Europe, the United States, and BRICS. From the perspective of the regional structure of trade, Trump’s trade protection has little impact and bilateral trade growth.
In 18 years, China’s auto trade surplus has steadily declined against the United States. For Germany and Japan, the deficit has increased significantly. The Chinese auto industry has always had a trade surplus in the early period, but with the US’s trade protection measures against China, overall our trade surplus is mainly For the United States and Mexico, followed by developing countries such as Iran, Vietnam, and Russia, etc. The biggest trade deficits are from the EU's Germany and the United Kingdom, Slovakia, etc. Japan's trade deficit with South Korea is also large. The actual effective exchange rate in our country is overestimated. Under the background of rising costs of labor and land, and factors that have not yet been fully restored, Thailand and India, Vietnam’s trade with China deserves attention.
3, 2017 Automobile autos import and export vehicles rebounded
Chart 3: Comparison and Analysis of China's Import and Export Performance during the Period of 06-2018
The entire vehicle import and export in 15-16 was very poor, but the trend of recovery in 17 years was obvious. The fluctuation of imported cars in 13 years was far greater than that in export markets, and the exports in 15-16 were slightly better than imports. According to the national customs statistics From January to March 1818, Chinese autos imported 1.25 million units, accumulatively increasing at a rate of 16%. Exports reached 1.06 million units, an increase of 31% year-on-year. Imports and exports in the 17th year were better than the 16-year growth rate. And December The growth rate of auto exports is still at 40%, and its performance is strong.
Second, the analysis of vehicle imports
1, the import car market trend over the years
In the 17th year, China's auto imports reached 1.25 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, reflecting the gradual deceleration of imported vehicle growth. Taking into account the 15-year bottoming effect, 330,000 units in 4Q17 were similar to the 4Q14 growth, but low In the 2nd quarter of 14 years, 390,000 units, 17-year growth rate in the first quarter of 1-4 were gradually declining, but the growth rate continued to decline.
2, monthly auto vehicle import trends
Chart 5 Monthly Imports of Automobile Vehicle Imports
The import vehicle market is affected by various factors. Many policies, demands, channels and other factors will cause the imported vehicles to fluctuate violently. In the context of 14 years of super strong, 15 years of imports have a high base of downturn. 16 years of 3 -Resumption of growth resumed in December, and imported cars performed strongly in 17 years. 18 years are complex features of imported vehicles. However, imported vehicles in March should have already been shipped. The current policy dynamics do not affect the import volume.
3, analysis of automobile import structure
Although imports of imported vehicles have continued to decline in 15-16 years, the import structure of passenger vehicles is still dominated by SUVs. The market demand for high-end four-wheel drive SUVs is strong, and the number of passenger cars in January-March 18 still reached 270,000. Taiwan, but other vehicles such as trucks and car chassis have also recovered significantly in recent years, but import trucks in the third quarter are also slowing down.
5, Passenger vehicle displacement returns to medium and large
The trend of import passenger car's displacement has returned to the trend of large-scale. Both the sedan and the four-wheel drive SUV have a strong performance of 3-4 litres, and the SUV's 4-litre or higher models perform better.
6, imported new energy vehicle features
The overall trend of imported new energy vehicles was stable, but the import of pure electric passenger vehicles fluctuates greatly. The imports of pure electric vehicles mainly driven by Tesla in the January-March period were 4,872, which was weaker than the 17 months from January to March.
6. Analysis of Automobile Import Market
In 18 years, the overall trend of automobile imports was strong, among which Japan, Germany and Sweden had outstanding performance. The total import volume of Germany and the United Kingdom was still the largest and best-growing in Europe. The performance of imported cars from the United States was poor and its domestic cars were not Very good. Mexico and the Czech Republic, Hungary's total exports to China are also large, and these Eastern European countries seem to have better performance in production and sales.
6, analysis of imported car market
From the perspective of major importing countries of cars, Germany has nearly 40% of the imported cars. In Europe, Germany, Hungary, France, and the Netherlands have a very strong growth rate. The increase in imports of cars from the United States is not strong.
In the 17th year, the decline in imported cars is more obvious in France, Austria and other Western European countries.
7, Imported SUV is stronger in Europe
The import characteristics of China's SUVs over the past 18 years have been excellent in the import volume of major European countries, but the import performance of the United States and Japan has been relatively poor. In March, Japan’s imports were strong and beyond the United States. It is also a very good thing.
8, Imported trucks perform steadily
With the development of domestic express delivery and other industries, the logistics industry is paying more and more attention to efficiency and reliability of freight vehicles. The sales of imported trucks that perform well in these two areas are extremely fierce. Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Scania, Mann And Iveco and other imported truck brands performed better in the domestic market. In March last year, the US light-vessel imports increased significantly. The average import price was 40,000 US dollars per unit. It is estimated that the pickup truck series may be the main product. It is now estimated that the tax code is also very good. Thing. And the trucks imported from Sweden, such as Sweden, are all at about 78,000 U.S. dollars. The import demand for traction heavy trucks is still very strong.
8, super performance of imported auto parts
In the first quarter of 1818, imported auto parts and components were 9.2 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 10%, which is also considered a strong growth. The largest import volume is the drivetrain, body and its accessories. Imports of automotive electronics and engine parts are strong.
9. Strong performance of imported auto parts in 18 and 18 years
In 18 years, auto parts imports were mainly Germany and Japan, which accounted for more than half of the total, while US imports accounted for less than 10%, and the growth rate was significantly stronger than the import of Korean car parts. The strongest growth in imported parts was in Europe. , Germany, the Czech Republic, Sweden and other imported components are strong. And European imported components continue to increase significantly
