8-inch wafer fab capacity tight
This outbreak is not an anomaly in the short term, but is based on the result of long-term stable market demand.
The latest news shows that in addition to power management ICs and fingerprint recognition, the MOSFET market is also hot. The foundry's Silicone Silicone stated that at this stage, it can be said that the MOSFET is the hottest time in 20 years. Although the silicon MOSFET is fully loaded, However, the demand is greater than the supply. The order has been placed for 2 months.
In fact, according to the earlier report from MicroNetwork, in the second half of 2017, it was reported that the production capacity of 8-inch wafer foundry was close to full capacity and the production capacity was tight. In the fourth quarter, it was the message of price increase. There was no mention of the MOSFET market at the time.
It goes without saying that in recent years, the market for IoT has gradually matured, and the automotive electronics market is shifting from traditional automobiles to new-generation automobiles. The number of electronic components in automobiles has grown exponentially. Many IC design companies have invested a lot of human and material resources. The development of the Internet of Things and automotive electronics products, and even the mergers and acquisitions of many companies are also carried out around these two major areas. This shows that the two major areas are hot.
At the same time, IC design companies gradually shifted their focus from 6 inches to 8 inches when considering process and cost issues.
As a relatively mature technology, 8 inches can bring more cost advantages and product capacity to IC design companies. It can be said that this transition from 6 inches to 8 inches is a ridiculous market choice.
Therefore, with the development of emerging areas, the utilization rate of 8-inch devices is a high percentage, and the utilization rate of fabs in 2017 has reached or approached 100%. It can be said that the imbalance between supply and demand is still very clear.
More media reports pointed out that under such circumstances, the 8-inch production capacity of TSMC, the world's advanced, and SMIC has reached full capacity, and the production capacity is tight. IC design companies have to seize the production capacity has been difficult.
Unbalanced supply and demand of 8-inch wafers
In fact, the overall demand situation of the 8-inch fab still maintained a relatively balanced state in the first half of 2017, which prompted the present appearance of the imbalance of supply and demand as a result of internal and external factors.
The first is the external cause of market demand.
From the third quarter of 2017, the market demand for 8-inch wafers began to show up. By 2018, as applications matured and the number of applications increased, the demand for 8-inch wafers soared.
Among them, in addition to fingerprint recognition, the overall market volume has grown by 30% to 40%, and power management ICs have also grown by 15% to 17%. The growth rate of these two major markets is much higher than that of the semiconductor market.
In other words, if the demand for 8-inch wafers is estimated based on the average growth rate of the industry, it will naturally be in short supply.
When this supply-demand imbalance occurs, it is difficult to expand the 8-inch wafer capacity in the short term.
Second, it is the external cause of process upgrading.
In the past few years, due to the relative slowdown of the 8-inch wafer market and the substitution of process processes, all of them have vigorously put into production 12-inch wafers, slowing or even abandoning investment in 8-inch wafers, which makes this wave When unanticipated 8-inch wafer demand erupted, capacity was difficult to turn around, not to mention satisfy market demand.
8-inch wafer fab is still erupting
What is even more 'horrific' is that the outbreak of the 8-inch wafer fab is still in progress, and market demand has not stopped there. In 2018, it has become even more intense.
Both TSMC and UMC have stated that the production capacity of 8-inch wafer foundry is almost full. UMC informed IC design companies in the first half of 2017 that 8-inch wafer foundry will have tight production capacity. We hope that customers can get as early as possible. Order.
Some media reports have pointed out that this year's SMIC's production capacity is already full, including the 8-inch wafer fab, which has been captured by Huawei Hass, Qualcomm and fingerprint identification customer FPC.
According to SEMI's data, by 2020, the monthly production capacity of eight-inch wafer fabs worldwide will reach 5.7 million units, surpassing the historical record set in 2007. As far as wafer manufacturers are concerned, there were 8 out of 188 operations worldwide in 2016. The inch fab, by 2021, is expected to increase to 197.
From a geographical point of view, by 2021, the 8-inch fab capacity in mainland China will be the highest in the world. Between 2017 and 2021, although the 8-inch capacity in Southeast Asia and the United States will also show significant growth, Capacity growth rate is still lower than China.
It can be said that, at least until 2021, 8-inch fabs still have a lot to offer.
However, according to stakeholders in the industry chain, 12-inch wafer fabs are becoming mainstream, and upstream equipment manufacturers are focusing almost on this, resulting in fewer and fewer resources being invested in 8-inch, even facing key equipment. Disturbance, it can be said that creating a complete 8-inch industry is also difficult.
At the same time, the problems faced by 8-inch fabs are more than that.
Almost at the same time as the demand for 8-inch fabs broke out, in 2017, suppliers of global silicon wafers also began to go out of stock. Companies such as SMIC, Samsung, etc. have started to buy them, not to mention small businesses. The increase in price will also affect the fab's strategy.
IC design company ushered in a challenge
The problem that followed was that some media reports pointed out that due to the rising prices of silicon wafers and the continuous production capacity of 8-inch wafer fabs, TSMC, UMC, the world’s advanced, SMIC and Hua Hong and other foundries will Decided to raise the price of 8-inch wafer foundry.
Jibang Consulting Optoelectronics Research Center pointed out that since the shortage of silicon wafers still has no solution within a short period of time, wafer foundries began to adjust their own product portfolio of 8-inch plants in the second half of 2017, hoping to maximize profits, The foundry price is one of the means.
It is understood that another reason for this increase in OEM prices is that the foundry found that the short-term demand for 8-inch wafers has obvious signs of repeated orders. In order to protect themselves, the foundry has to make More measures to be able to get the customer's real needs.
With the rise of the foundry price, there will be some changes to the IC design company's strategy and cooperation.
For large-scale IC design companies, based on the huge volume and product lines, they will gain more say and be able to get more orders in the 8-inch wafer foundry. However, they also need to spend more. The energy to maintain the relationship with the foundry.
For those small companies, because they do not have much right to speak, they may want to gain the right to speak in the foundry. Perhaps they will have to supply silicon wafers, and they need to increase their prices to get it!
If the foundry price increases, it will be a challenge to the supply and demand relationship between fabs and IC design companies!