In April 2018, the monthly prosperity index of the China Copper Industry was 24.84, which was a decrease of 1.97 points from the previous month and was located in the 'normal' interval. The index of advance synthesis was 90.18, a decrease of 2.45 points from the previous month; the consensus index was 58.76. Compared with the previous month, it decreased by 2.62 points (the monthly prosperity index of the copper industry in the past 13 months is shown in Table 1). The monitoring results of the monthly prosperity index of the copper industry showed that the copper industry index has dropped slightly and is currently operating in the 'normal' range. .
Table 1 Mid-copper industry monthly prosperity index from April 2017 to April 2018
The boom index is in the 'normal' range
The monthly prosperity index of the China Copper Industry shows that since November 2017, the monthly prosperity index of the copper industry has continued to fall. In April, it fell 1.97 points from last month, and is still in the 'normal' range. The trend of the monthly prosperity index of the copper industry in China As shown in Figure 1.
Fig.1 Trend graph of the monthly prosperity index of the colored copper industry
From the monthly prosperity signal of the medium-color copper industry (see Figure 2), in April 2018, among the nine indicators that constitute the monthly prosperity index of the industry, the LME copper settlement price, with the exception of the power cable located in the colder region , M2, import volume index, total investment, house sales area, copper production index, main business income, total profit are all in the 'normal' range.
Figure 2 Mid-copper industry boom lights
The leading composite index fell slightly
In April 2018, the advanced composite index of the Chinese copper industry was 90.18, which was a decrease of 2.45 points from the previous month (see Figure 3). Of the six indicators that constituted the composite index of the advanced copper industry, 4 rose 2%. Among the four indicators for growth, LME copper settlement price increased by 19.00% year-on-year, M2 increased by 8.96% year-on-year, commercial housing sales area increased by 1.51% year-on-year, copper industry investment increased by 1.40% year-on-year. Among the 2 indicators that decreased year-on-year, import volume index The year-on-year decrease was 2.97%, and the power cable dropped 11.91% year-on-year.
Fig.3 Medium Composite Copper Industry Composite Index Graph
Industry Operation Situation Analysis
In April 2018, the average LME price for the current and three-month copper futures was US$6,838/tonne and US$6,878/tonne respectively, up 20.03% and 20.10% year-on-year, respectively, 0.63% and 0.66% month-on-month respectively. SHFE month and three months ago Average monthly copper prices were 51042 yuan/ton and 51,000 yuan/ton, up 10.65% and 9.59% year-on-year, respectively, 0.92% and 0.91% respectively.
Although copper industry consumption recovered in April, the output and import volume increased year-on-year, and the industry as a whole still showed a slight surplus. In addition, the country’s import restrictions on scrap copper became stricter, resulting in continuous shortage of supply of scrap copper in the market. The price difference between wastes is relatively narrow. Under the current price and environment, the copper industry is stable in production and operation, and the overall operation of the industry is still acceptable.
From a data point of view, China’s real estate investment was 2.1 trillion yuan from January to March 2018, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year. Air-conditioning output was 48.536 million units, up 13.6% year-on-year. In January-March, auto output was 7.131 million units, down 2.6% year-on-year. However, the sales volume of new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, increased significantly year-on-year. In terms of production, the output of refined copper in the first quarter of 2018 was 2.207 million tons, an increase of 8.67% year-on-year, of which 1.776 million tons of refined copper were mines, an increase of 10.01% over the same period of last year. Output of 343,000 tons, an increase of 7.13%. Copper output 3.67 million tons, an increase of 10.52%.
From the perspective of future development, the import of scrap copper will be curbed in 2018, and the supply of domestic scrap copper will continue to be tight. In addition, at present, scrap copper holders are generally reluctant to sell on the expectation of tight pressure on the supply of scrap copper in the market. The tense trend has been difficult to ease, and the pressure on industrial raw materials has increased. With regard to new energy vehicles, the market is expected to produce new energy vehicles in the future due to a series of policies encouraging the development of new energy vehicles in the country. As new energy vehicles use copper. The volume is 2 to 3 times that of ordinary cars, which can lead to some copper consumption to a certain extent. However, optimistically, it should also be noted that the average amount of copper used by new energy vehicles is about 70 kg per unit. There is hard support for the consumption of copper.
In the short term, the copper industry will still maintain a stable operation pattern, so it is predicted that the copper industry will continue to operate in the 'normal' range.