Since mid-May, the PTA futures market has continuously exceeded the new high during the year, and the main contract of 1809 has risen to the 5,924 yuan line. This has caused the market to increase sharply. As a result, the PTA spot market has risen sharply, and the main PTA factory has repurchased the spot actively. Spot prices support a higher level.
Because the current PTA spot supply and demand fundamentals performed well, and the short-term sales plan for the Shengda Appliance was issued, the market bullish sentiment was still strong, but whether the market can achieve the expected rise is the main concern.
From the perspective of crude oil, crude oil is highly volatile, and the market temporarily absorbs early gains. Later Iranian problems may escalate again. The United States may impose sanctions on Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will continue. The conflict in the Middle East may at any moment push up crude oil prices again. In addition, OPEC and Russia will meet in June to discuss whether to continue prolonging crude oil production cuts agreement, which will help the crude oil price to rise. If crude oil spikes again, it will directly drive PX prices up and still maintain strong support for the PTA market.
From the standpoint of its own cost, Asian PX rose to a high point in the past 3 and a half years, which has increased PTA cost support. At present, PTA production profit is less than RMB 100. If the crude oil price in the later period is higher, the probability of PX is higher than that of PTA. Under the pressure of production loss, or follow the raw material PX rose.
On the other hand, the current processing fee has dropped to the level of 600-700 yuan/ton, which is the lowest level since this year. Under the normal state of high processing fees in the previous period, some businesses still have expectations for high processing fees. Possible.
In addition, the current overhaul of the PTA makers made the prices firm, and Yisheng Dahua had two sets of 5.95 million tons/year of PTA equipment to be overhauled to ease the early PTA cargoes. The downstream polyester factory maintained a 90% high start-up load. Loom stocks are low, grey cloth sales are still preferred, and the industry chain just needs stability for PTA.
In a comprehensive view, the current PTA spot supply and demand structure performs well, while the cost side has strong market support. Therefore, the bullish factors in the PTA market will dominate in the short term, and the PTA price center of gravity will continue to move upward. In operation, it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on the low side.