According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first four months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China completed 232,000 and 225,000 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 142.4% and 149.2% over the same period of the previous year, not only far exceeding the overall increase of the auto market, but also far Super expected.
In this situation, the automotive industry has begun to touch the “electricity”, and the pure electric vehicle market has been crowded with 'nowhere to go'. Many companies have started their own way and started to devote themselves to the research and development of hydrogen fuel vehicles. Many places also have fuel cell vehicles. Industry as a development focus.
So, how far is the fuel cell car from real industrialization?
Maturity is at least 10 years worse than electric vehicles
At the Beijing International Auto Show recently held, Futian Ouhui's 8.5-meter hydrogen fuel cell bus attracted many viewers' attention. According to reports, the vehicle was refueled with hydrogen for 10 minutes and the cruising range was 500 kilometers. Currently, it has obtained 100 orders. This is also the world's largest commercial order for fuel cell vehicles.
'The fuel cell technology has made great progress in recent years under the joint promotion of governments, research institutes and companies across the world. 'Dong Yang, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that starting from the application of a patent from the Canadian ballad company in 1991, the fuel cell The research of the automobile has been nearly 30 years old. In January 2015, Toyota Motor Corporation's "Future" (Mirai) brand fuel cell car was officially put into production and sales, indicating that the fuel cell car's technical route is basically determined and it has entered the stage of industrialization.
Although China's fuel cell industry started later than Japan, it has made considerable progress in recent years. After more than 20 years of research and development and demonstration operations, China has initially mastered the fuel cell stack and its key materials, power systems, vehicle integration and hydrogen. The core technology of infrastructure can basically establish a technology platform for fuel cell vehicle power systems with independent intellectual property rights, and foster a group of companies engaged in R&D and production of fuel cells and key components. The initial formation of university research institutes is the mainstay. The participation of key enterprises includes the research and development system of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transfer, hydrogen safety, and fuel cell technologies. It has achieved the production capacity of 100-class power systems and vehicles. As of the end of 2017, China's commercial orders for fuel cell vehicles have been Thousands of vehicles were broken down. There were more than 200 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles used for demonstration operations, and 8 hydrogenation stations were built nationwide.
However, this set of operating figures is far inferior to pure electric vehicles. 'Although fuel cells have higher stacking efficiency than internal combustion engines, they have no huge advantages such as emission pollution, but due to the failure to determine the hydrogen storage method, the stack size is too large and the efficiency is too high. Low, proton exchange membranes use precious metals and many other specific technical problems can not be overcome, the actual industrialization of fuel cell vehicles is still facing more difficulties. 'Dong Yang believes that the current situation of China's fuel cell vehicles and pure electric vehicles in 2009 are similar, but also The scale of R&D and promotion of 'Ten Thousands of Thousands of Vehicles'. As far as industry maturity is concerned, there is still a gap of 10 years or even longer between fuel cell vehicles and power battery electric vehicles.
Industry breakthroughs must go through the 'Three Roads'
Passenger cars can best reflect the technological level of a country's automotive industry. The data show that the current global fuel cell passenger car market is dominated by Japan's Toyota, Honda and Hyundai Motor. Of these, Toyota's Mirai occupies 2,039 vehicles. The global fuel cell car sales of 88%. In contrast, China's official launch of fuel cell passenger car landing products only SAIC Roewe 950, and not formally for the private consumer market.
Why is it difficult for China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to be promoted? 'First of all, the service life of fuel cells is too short.' Qi Zhigang, CTO of Xinyan Hydro Energy Technology Co., Ltd., the IEC international standard convener, took an example and stated that the running time of the Roewe 950 fuel cell car is 3000 hours. Left and right, there is a big gap from the 5000 hours required for practical application.
'More importantly, due to the uncontrollable environment, temperature, and humidity, the lifetime of hydrogen fuel cells will be greatly reduced in actual operations.' Professor Chen Quanshi of the Department of Automotive Engineering at Tsinghua University stated that even if the life span reaches 5,000 hours, it will operate for one day. Hourly calculations, a bus can only operate for less than a year and cannot support the commercialization of products at all.
Secondly, the supply chain of hydrogen has not yet formed. According to experts, regarding the production of hydrogen, there are currently different technical routes such as industrial by-production of hydrogen and the use of photovoltaic, wind energy and other fragmented energy to produce hydrogen; there is also high pressure, liquefaction on hydrogen transport. The use of different routes such as natural gas pipelines requires economic and technical comparisons and explorations of business models.
Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and researcher of the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yi Baolian stated that at present, there are few hydrogen storage and transportation companies in China, and the hydrogen supply system is not stable.
Thirdly, the high production and use costs also constrain the promotion. 'At present, the global technology-leading Toyota is also promoting the 'pick up money'. Its real price is much higher than pure electric vehicles, not to mention fuel vehicles. 'Chen Quanshi said, Of the thousands of fuel cell vehicles sold by Toyota last year, 80% were used for rental business, and its price/performance ratio was far from the market's requirement.'
The reporter visited and found that the current domestic price of a fuel cell vehicle is mostly over a million yuan. 'The reason why the price is high, mainly because the scale is too small.' said Lu Wei, Dean of the Shanghai Branch of Shanghai Electric Apparatus Research Institute.
At the same time, the cost of fuel cell vehicles is also high. 'In order to ensure the safety of hydrogen transportation, China's pressure vessels must be very strong, and the pressure required to transport hydrogen can not be too much.' He Guangli, Hydrogen R&D Department Manager, Beijing Low Carbon Clean Energy Research Institute Said that the low pressure storage capacity is less, 'comprehensive to calculate, hydrogen storage and transportation costs about 9 yuan per cubic meter, far more than the cost of hydrogen production'.
In addition, the investment in hydrogen refueling station construction is also relatively large. Yi Baolian told reporters that, not counting land, the construction cost of a hydrogen refueling station with a daily capacity of 200 kilograms is at least 15 million yuan, which is much higher than that of gas stations and charging stations. This sets a high threshold for many companies.
Who can win is the market choice
In the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in China, there are always three technical routes to plug-in, pure electricity and fuel cells. Among them, because hydrogen has an energy density of two to three times that of oil, plus its hydrogenation. The customer experience of the link is the same as that of a traditional energy vehicle. Adding hydrogen takes only 2 minutes to 3 minutes, and the driving range is 500 kilometers to 700 kilometers. For a long time, fuel cell vehicles are considered as national new energy vehicles. The ultimate solution to the technical route.
However, compared with pure electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles are not only ideal for promotion and application in the world, but also in the world. In the early part of this century, experts believed that the energy density of power batteries could not meet the demand for automobiles. Fuel cell vehicles are the ultimate stage of electric vehicles. This can be understood. However, in recent years, there have been major advances in power battery technology, and this conclusion should be re-evaluated. 'In view of Dong Yang, with regard to the current state of the art, power battery electric vehicles are more Applicable to cities, short-distance, passenger cars, and fuel cell vehicles are more suitable for long-distance, heavy-duty, commercial vehicles. 'The two are mutually complementary relationships, and are not alternatives to each other. Technology is still in development, infrastructure is under construction, business models are constantly innovating, there are still huge variables. ' Dong Yang said.
Hydrogen fuel cell technology needs to accelerate development, which is in line with the needs of China's energy revolution. 'But hydrogen and electricity are energy carriers, there is no 'ultimate' theory. ' Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Professor Ouyang Minggao of Tsinghua University does not agree' Hydrogen is the ultimate energy source and 'hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is the ultimate eco-friendly car'. He believes that small cars have lower energy requirements and lithium batteries may play a greater role, 'so in terms of new energy vehicles, fuel cells With pure electricity in the future will be symbiotic coexistence'.
'Pure electric, hydrogen fuel and hybrid power have their own advantages. The Chinese market is so big that the three technical routes are needed today and tomorrow.
