"ZTE is being traded and fished out of this trade." The two grandfathers sitting in the street garden are talking. For some time now, the topic of trade disputes between China and the United States has become a high-frequency vocabulary from the bottom to the bottom.
'reverse' hope
Last Sunday, with the US President Trump's tweet, ZTE met the US ban and ushered in a 'reversal' hope. Trump Twitter said, 'Looking for a way to let ZTE's business get back on track' As soon as the tweet came out, the New York Times commented on Trump as the "face-changing master in trade". After Trump called this 'change card', what was the request? This led to various speculations.
In March 2018, the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed an administrative fine of 1.19 billion U.S. dollars for ZTE on the grounds that ZTE violated the U.S. ban on North Korea and Iran, and proposed that ZTE would not enjoy the possibility of export privilege within 7 years. In April, the United States The Ministry of Commerce punished the escalation and proposed the ban on cooperation between U.S. companies and ZTE.
On May 13th, Trump quoted the article saying, 'I and President Xi Jinping are looking for a way to allow ZTE, a large Chinese mobile phone company, to quickly return to normal track. (Zhongxing) caused too many workers in China to become unemployed. I have Obliged the Ministry of Commerce to handle this matter.
Some foreign media have pointed out that Trump’s change of position is naturally not due to the good intentions of helping Chinese workers to keep their jobs, but only to seek more.
At present, ZTE has approximately 80,000 employees in China. Due to the fierce competition in the domestic mobile phone market, ZTE’s major markets have moved to the United States. It has been reported that 80% of ZTE’s technology and component products rely on U.S. suppliers if the ban is implemented. , ZTE will face tremendous pressure and may even close down.
According to foreign media analysts, ZTE is not Trump's only 'trump card'. At present, Huawei is also under pressure from the Federal Communications Commission’s administrative review. After Best Buy, US AT&T also refused to sell Huawei mobile phones and other products. In addition, Xiaomi et al.
'sticky'
Investment, consumption and exports were the three carriages that drove China’s economic development. Today, exports still play a very important role in the national economy. According to reports, China’s total exports of goods and services to the United States in 2017 was approximately US$506 billion. , accounting for 4% of the national economy's total output. 'In addition, the role of the United States in the Chinese economy is not limited to trade,' writes Forbes News.
'Especially in the Internet, communications and other technology areas, California Silicon Valley and Guangzhou Shenzhen have been tightly tied together in a production process ecosystem, and people even named Shenzhen as 'California of China'. In the field of communications technology and smart phone manufacturing , Although China is able to achieve low-cost control, it is still unable to completely leave the United States components, technologies and operating systems.
Foreign media believes that outside of the United States, Chinese mobile phone companies can find European and other markets as sales, but if there is a lack of cooperation with U.S. partners, Chinese companies will find it difficult to be the first. 'In Internet communications and other technology fields, Chinese companies More sticky to American companies. '
Forbes believes that 'in this trade game, Trump's goal is not to fight ZTE, but to use China's mentality of wanting to save ZTE to get a higher bargaining chip. In this step-by-step trade negotiation, China's top technology Companies will struggle if they leave the technology, parts and systems of American companions.'
In the tweet published on the 13th, Trump also mentioned that 'China and the United States have maintained good cooperation in the field of trade and commerce for many years, but in the past negotiations, it was more favorable to China, so that it was difficult for China to accept the benefit of both countries. Trading. However, this situation will change in the future.
In addition to ZTE, Trump may also use Huawei, Xiaomi, NetEase, Alibaba (Alibaba's application for the acquisition of US MoneyGram has just been rejected) as its bargaining chip, 'If you want to succeed, these companies can't give up American technology. And the United States market.
On May 15, the second round of economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States has begun.
Forbes believes that 'Trump does not want to engage in trade wars, and that is the same in China. Both parties will reach a final agreement at the last minute, or a lot of last minute.'
The 'winning face' of both parties
The Washington Post wrote that if the trade war really catalyzes, China will undoubtedly be the party that has suffered a lot from economic losses, but 'it is not just an economic contest, it is also related to politics and many other aspects. If we talk about 'protracted warfare' "The Chinese side has won even more." American Enterprise Research Institute scholar Derek Scissors is a member of the U.S. government's China Affairs think-tank. He believes that 'Trump is faced with the problem of coordinating domestic conflicts, while the Chinese government is more stable.' '
'Currently, China has 3 trillion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves. They can help companies that are hurt by trade wars to survive the next days, and they can also subsidize soybean prices in the market, so that consumers do not need to bear the pain points of rising basket prices. In 2008 During the global financial crisis, the Chinese government adopted similar measures to use foreign exchange reserves to stimulate economic development and reduce the trauma suffered by people. Although China’s foreign exchange reserves have been reduced from the scale of 10 years ago, it is obviously more than that of the United States.
In a word, China can resist even longer in the trade war than the United States.
Not long ago, the United States and South Korea reached a new free trade agreement, and South Korea gave American car manufacturers greater access to the market. 'But South Korea is the 11th largest economy in the world and depends on US military assistance. China is the world The second largest economy, China's pressure-resisting capacity and South Korea are not an order of magnitude.
According to J. Stapleton Roy, the US ambassador to China in the Clinton and Bush eras, the Chinese government is facing the Chinese people’s expectation that the country will become stronger, and its bowing to the United States will not be seen by the Chinese people.
In China's list of counterproducts against the US government's tax increase list, 'China is hitting Trump's political weaknesses.' On the one hand, if the trade war starts, ordinary American consumers will experience a rise in prices, including food, clothing, and even an iPhone. Price pressure, at the same time, practitioners in certain regions will feel 'stiff', 'The list issued by the Chinese government may affect 21 million jobs in 2783 counties and counties in the United States, and these people are Truman's Putin took up the public opinion basis of the election. 'The Trump administration needs to see that their strategy is being linked to the 'wrong crowd'.
With the arrival of the US presidential midterm election, the future will be more subtle.