Although the decline in PC shipments has been significantly reduced in recent years, according to PC players, the greatest driving force for PC sales comes from commercial and high-price, high-margin e-sports models. Consumer PCs continue to expand due to the substitution effect of smart phones, and demand continues to decline. With the exception of Apple, which has strong brand strength, companies that fail to perform in both commercial and e-sports areas will experience a significant decline in shipments. Take the US-based giants as an example. Dell not only sells business models, but also electricity. Competitive business also achieved high-level profitability, medium and low-level impulses, and overall PC shipments grew stronger than rival groups. In the first quarter of 2018, the annual growth rate of shipments reached 6 to 7%. Due to the lack of performance of the e-sports model, the annual growth rate of shipments was about 3%, and the height still depended on the association of the mainland market, but they barely paid for the same results. However, the position of PC shipments had long been relinquished.
In contrast, Asustek and Acer have continued to decline in PC sales in recent years. Although the 2 major manufacturers rushed into the e-sports market, they were unable to compete in the global commercial battlefield. Hewlett-Packard and Dell in the US and European markets are even harder to challenge in the mainland. Shipments in the first quarter were down 7 to 13% from the same period in 2017, and Apple’s fourth-largest share of the global PC market was widening quarter by quarter.
PC industry conservatives believe that the current PC shipment kinetic energy mainly can only look forward to the wave of commercial replacement, from AMD, Intel's new platform strategy has aggravated the commercial market investment is obvious, while the limited expansion of the gaming market size , And with the influx of competitors, and the price strategy also see loose, Asus, MSI and other leading groups pressure doubled, the future profitability space may be squeezed.
Observing the latest market conditions, PC makers expect that the second quarter will be the traditional off-season PC, coupled with the weak demand from consumer models, will be the bottom of global PC sales. It is worth noting that although NVIDIA, Intel and AMD are all in the third quarter There are new products, but there are no killer application highlights. The peak season effect may not be comparable to the same period in 2017. ASUS has also conservatively viewed the PC performance in the second quarter. Estimated revenue will be reduced by 10% compared to the first quarter. If there is no high-priced gaming machine, Support, revenue, profit reduction fear is more than expected.
Not only is the brand NB, DT demand continues to decline, the global DIY channel has also been gradually cooled due to the mining tide since April, and the profitability of the relevant supply chain has also significantly converged. Among them, the global board leader Asus is conservatively expecting the board to wait for zero The module product revenue will be reduced by 20% in the quarter. In fact, the mining demand in the first quarter reached its peak, pushing up the performance of related companies and writing a new high. Asustek estimated that the 2nd quarter will fall by 20%. Although it is not a crash, it also shows that mining opportunities In the past year, the profits of the graphics card can make up for the PC, and the gap in the performance of mobile phones will no longer be reduced.
It is worth noting that the mining boom was fully detonated in April 2017 and showed a quarter-by-quarter expansion. In the past year, graphic card makers obviously benefited from the sharp increase in shipments and price increases caused by mining demand. With the declining mining profits from April 2018, the demand for mining has slowed down. It is difficult to see an alarming increase in the performance of the second quarter compared to the same period in 2017. Among them, the profit from mining and drawing cards is now highly valued. Gigabyte, writing a new record high in the first quarter, despite the growth in revenue in the next three quarters, but the pressure on profitability has increased significantly. In addition to the reduction in graphics card profits, server orders are focused on revenue, but profit is limited, and the motherboard is also The continued decline, and the recent MSI that has exceeded the one hundred yuan, has actually faced tremendous challenges. It is also due to the slowing down of the drawing cards and the stabilization of prices. The gross profit has seen a decline. The eSports NB is also the same as the Asus. Encountered by Dell, Lenovo, Acer and Hewlett-Packard’s bargaining attacks, it is difficult to predict whether future performance will be able to sustain growth momentum.
On the whole, card manufacturers believe that the explosion of profits brought about by mining is no longer the case. It should begin to shrink in the second quarter. If the demand falls more than expected, the ASIC mining machine will have a buoyant sales. The recession will present a slippery slide crisis. E-sports demand will be difficult to fully rescue.