Zhang Jiayi, general manager of Apacer Technologies, a memory module maker, said that the main reason for the decline in NAND flash memory came from oversupply in the market. However, despite the fact that major OEMs have launched 3D NAND processes, the yield rate has not risen quickly, resulting in a large number of unspecified products recently appearing in the market. On the market, but in the long run, as the 3D NAND yield rate rises, the NAND price will eventually go down and it will gradually drop to the level of 0.2 USD/GB in the future.
Zhang Jiaxuan further pointed out that taking the current 120GB 2.5吋 standard product as an example, the market price has indeed fallen, leaving quality concerns and causing other industry peers to be forced to follow up the pressure of price cuts. However, the price of NAND flash memory has increased from the past $0.3/ GB began to decline, and now it moves to a price of about 0:25 USD, but before the yield has improved significantly, if the market price drops to 0.2 USD in advance, it will mean that the market price will face oversaturation.
Despite industry expectation, the NAND flash market conditions are expected to improve in the third quarter under the fermentation of high season effect. However, Zhang Jialu believes that if the prices in the second quarter are extremely oversold, the price of NAND flash memory will be expected to rebound in the third quarter, otherwise The prices in the third quarter will be difficult to increase, with the highest level of performance. In addition, since DRAM and flash memory are dynamically stocked, downstream customers usually start pulling goods before they are on the line. It is expected that the demand for mobile phones will start to show up in large numbers from July to August, and After months, NAND prices will fall again.
As for DRAM market conditions are relatively optimistic, Zhang Jiaxuan pointed out at the Law Conference that the DRAM market did not see dark clouds in the next two quarters. Despite the low demand in the off-season in the second quarter, Zhang Jiaxuan stated that due to the United States, mainland manufacturers have their own server requirements. Therefore, the server memory is critical to the impact of the DRAM market price in 2018. At present, it appears that the demand for servers in the third quarter did not significantly shrink and was in line with the original expectations.
Zhang Jialu said that although from the perspective of supply, the new DRAM capacity of major manufacturers continued to open, but from production to yield specifications, it will take about 1 to 6 months, and the impact of new capacity before the end of 2018 is expected. Due to limited nature, DRAM contract prices are expected to rise to the third quarter.
However, even if the DRAM manufacturers in mainland China are not allowed to start production, Zhang Jialu also believes that with the increase in output of major manufacturers, DRAM prices will be expected to loosen after the third quarter. It is expected that from the fastest of November, 2019 will begin to show fall.