National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson on April 2018
Report on the Operation of the National Economy
CCTV reporter:
From the data you just released, some data in April is inconsistent with market expectations. What are the reasons? In addition, how do you evaluate the overall situation of China's economic operation in April? Thank you.
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your question. First of all, from the operation of these main indicators I mentioned just now, we can see that some indicators have some fluctuations. When we judge the economic situation, especially when judging the short-term economic situation, we need to refer to a more diverse system. Rather than just staring at the one-month change, we must analyze the economic situation from a longer-term perspective. From this perspective, the overall economic operation in April continued the trend of steady development and good development. The main features are three. Aspects: First, smooth operation; Second, enhanced vitality; Third, improved efficiency. I think these three characteristics can more accurately summarize the main features of economic operations in April.
First, smooth operation. The main performance is in several aspects. First of all, there is a steady rise in production, especially in industrial production. From January to April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.9% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point higher than the growth rate in the first quarter. Compared with the same period of last year, the service industry production index continued to maintain a relatively fast growth rate of 8.0%. From the demand point of view, demand was generally stable. The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 9.7% from January to April in the first four months of this year. This growth rate and the first quarter The growth rate of fixed asset investment was relatively flat, which was slightly lower than that of last month. However, the investment structure continued to be optimized, and the role of investment in transformation, upgrade, and optimization of supply was further brought into play. From the employment situation, the unemployment rate in the national township survey in April The survey of unemployment in 31 big cities and towns has returned below 5%, which is 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, which is down from the same period of last year. The favorable employment situation fully proves that the macro situation is basically stable. It was relatively moderate and relatively stable. In April, consumer prices rose by 1.8% year-on-year, and the rate of increase was 0.3 percentage points lower than last month. The factory price of industrial producers rose by 3.4% in April. Months slightly increased by 0.3 percentage points. Both prices have maintained a relatively steady rise, reflecting market conditions and supply and demand trends improved further.
Second, the increase in vitality. First of all, the performance of the new kinetic energy in supporting the economy is further enhanced. Under the general pattern of stable economic operation, the growth of new kinetic energy is accelerating. From high-tech manufacturing, January-February high-tech manufacturing The industry grew by 11.9% year-on-year, and the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.2%, which was faster than the growth rate of 6.9% for the industrial enterprises above designated size. The modern service industry includes the information technology service industry and the leasing business service industry continued to grow on the basis of the rapid growth last year. Maintained a relatively rapid growth. From the perspective of the new entity, newly registered enterprises in April registered a new high on the basis of relatively rapid growth last year, with more than 20,000 newly registered companies per month. From the perspective of new consumer business, electronics Business, including mobile payments, has maintained a relatively rapid growth in these new formats. In January-April, online retail sales increased by 32.4% year-on-year. From an investment perspective, investment in the social sector, investment in short-sector areas, and investment in infrastructure are maintained. With relatively rapid growth and the Internet, investment in the people's livelihood sector has been increasing. From a new product perspective, new energy vehicles have more than doubled in the first four months of the year. To 113%, the growth of industrial robots exceeds 30%. From these perspectives, the supporting role of new kinetic energy in the economy is further enhanced, and the vitality of the entire economy is further enhanced.
Third, the benefits increase. In the overall environment of improving the supply and demand environment of the market, both the corporate income and the government revenue have maintained a relatively rapid growth since last year. From the perspective of the profits of industrial enterprises, from January to March Profits of industrial enterprises above designated size have increased by 11.6% year-on-year. It is indeed not easy to maintain double-digit growth on the basis of rapid growth last year. From the perspective of profitability, the profit from main business of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to March was profitable. The rate is 6.18%, which represents an increase of 0.11 percentage point from the same period of last year. This shows that under the effect of policies such as tax reduction and fee reduction, the cost of enterprises has continued to decline, and market demand has recovered. The overall performance is that the profit rate of industrial enterprises has increased. The profit also maintained a double-digit growth. The operating profit of the service industries above designated size increased by 11% from January to January, which is basically the same as the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size. Furthermore, the general public budget just released by the Ministry of Finance yesterday. Revenue from January to April increased by 12.9% year-on-year, which also maintained a relatively rapid growth. Therefore, from these perspectives, although the external instability this year, the uncertainties are still There are many domestic imbalances and the contradictions of inadequate development are still outstanding. However, the economy has continued to maintain a stable development trend and has laid a very solid foundation for the realization of the annual economic goals.
Japan Economic News Reporter:
The growth rate of infrastructure investment in January-April was 12.4%. Since the second half of last year, it has been slowing down. What do you think is behind this? What impact does the slowdown in infrastructure investment have on the local economy in China? ?
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your question, you noticed that the infrastructure investment continued to slow down from January to April. From January to April, the growth rate of infrastructure investment was 12.4%. It still maintains a double-digit growth rate. It should not be slow. The Chinese economy as a whole has shifted from a high-growth stage to a high-quality stage. At this stage, more importantly, investment is used to optimize the supply structure. Therefore, in this sense, infrastructure investment can maintain the current growth rate of over 12%. Not a low growth rate.
The slowdown in the growth of infrastructure investment since last year is partly related to the high base of last year. Last year, infrastructure investment has maintained a growth rate of around 20%; on the other hand, according to the requirements of the three major attacks in recent years, The government has adopted measures to standardize the clean-up of PPP projects and standardize local debt financing practices. PPP is relatively new in China, and there will inevitably be some imperfections in the development process. Therefore, in order to address these imperfections, some measures should be adopted to regulate the clean-up. In the long run, it is very beneficial to the steady development of the PPP project itself. It is also very necessary for the steady operation of the overall investment. Therefore, in this sense, investment may be affected in the short term, but it can be promoted in the long term. Investment is more stable and healthier.
In the medium and long term, China is still the largest developing country in the world, and it is still in the initial stage of socialism. At this stage, the space for infrastructure is still very large and has great potential. For example, China’s per capita capital stock of infrastructure At present, there are only 20%-30% of Western developed countries. Another example is the gap between the stock of infrastructure in some impoverished areas in the west and the eastern region. The current inventory of infrastructure in the western region is roughly equivalent to only half of the national average. From these perspectives, the space for infrastructure is still very large. At the same time, fiscal and financial operations are relatively stable at present, and China’s savings rate is still at a relatively high level. It has the ability to conditionally develop the potential of infrastructure. Therefore, in the medium and long term, infrastructure investment should maintain relatively steady and sustainable growth.
Zhongwei TV reporter:
My question is about China-US trade friction. Ms. Liu, Some of the trade restrictions the United States had taken against China some time ago, what impact did China have on economic data in April? Your trend for the next round of China-US trade negotiations What are the views that it may have on the future economic trends in China?
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your question. The Sino-US trade consultation is a hot topic that we have recently paid close attention to. We are also very concerned about. From the statistics department, we may be more concerned about your first question, that is, we are very concerned about its operation on the overall economy. Impact. From the situation of the April economic operation that I introduced just now, the major economic indicators have been operating stably, the economic vitality has been further enhanced, the quality and efficiency have been further enhanced, and the overall economy has maintained a stable and favorable development trend. In the short-term, China and the US The impact of trade negotiations on economic operations has not yet fully emerged.
With regard to the Sino-US trade negotiations, related functional departments have made detailed disclosures of progress. China and the United States are the two largest economies in the world. In the past long-term economic and trade cooperation, they have formed complementary relationships. From the perspective of future development, the current There are still some uncertainties in the global economic recovery. As the world's two largest economies, the stable and healthy development of Sino-U.S. economic and trade cooperation is not only beneficial to the economies of China and the US, but also a positive driving force for the global economy. .
China News Agency reporter:
We saw that the national economy was generally stable in April. I would like to ask how do you see the trend of the economy in the second quarter. Will there be some downward pressure?
Liu Aihua:
As for the economic trends in the second quarter or longer, this is one of the issues that people are most concerned about. Regardless of whether they look at the fundamentals, that is, macroscopically or microscopically, they still look at the medium and long term. In the first phase, the Chinese economy is fully capable of maintaining the current steady development trend.
First, from a macro perspective, with the continuous advancement of structural reforms on the supply side, the economic structure has continued to be optimized, and the relationship between supply and demand has been continuously improved, reflected in many aspects. In terms of resolving excess production capacity, the current supply of low-end inefficiencies has continued to decrease. The capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises in the first quarter was 76.5%, which represents an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the same period of last year. This shows that while the supply of low-end ineffective is decreasing, advanced production capacity is released in an orderly manner. From the perspective of the rapid growth of new kinetic energy, whether it is a new industry The new consumption model or investment in new momentum has maintained a rapid growth. More importantly, the investment structure is continuously optimized. Investment in high-tech manufacturing, investment in high-tech services, and investment in the social sector all remain relatively high. Rapid growth, strong kinetic energy, short-settlement boards, improved economic efficiency, and other aspects of investment are slowly seeing results, and have also played a positive role in improving the overall supply quality.
Secondly, from the micro level, the income of various entities is increasing, especially the micro leverage ratio of enterprises is declining. In the first quarter, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 56.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the same period of last year. , On the basis of improving corporate efficiency and improving market conditions, the company's expectations are improving. In April, the manufacturing purchasing managers index was 51.4%, which has been above the dry line for 21 consecutive months. Non-manufacturing business activity index 54.8 %, also maintained at a relatively high level for several consecutive months. The consumer confidence index was 112.3% in March, which is also a high level in recent years, indicating that market confidence is increasing.
Third, in the medium and long term, the comprehensive advantages of economic development are still outstanding. We have the largest market in the world, and our infrastructure has been continuously improved. High-speed rail, the highway coverage density is the highest in the world, and industrial facilities are relatively complete. Household savings rates At a high level, from a variety of perspectives, the overall advantages of the medium and long term are still outstanding. The current macroscopic and micro-oriented attitudes are conducive to further stimulating the medium and long-term advantages. By integrating these factors, the conditions for promoting the high quality development of the Chinese economy will continue to accumulate. , China's economy is expected to continue stabilizing.
Reuters:
You just mentioned the industrial transformation. Some high-tech companies have grown faster, but now the United States has a lot of worries about 'made in China 2025' and may take some measures. Will this affect the industrial upgrading?
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your question. From what I have just described, China's high-tech industries and new economy have developed very rapidly in recent years. Statistics Bureau also has some data in these areas. For example, in 2016, the “three new” economic value added The proportion of GDP has exceeded 15%. These data prove that the new momentum continues to increase under the support of innovation-driven development strategies. From the perspective of economic performance this year, high-tech industries such as the mobile Internet and other high-tech industries have developed very rapidly. Fast, brought about the renewal of consumption patterns. In the first quarter of this year, the mobile Internet access traffic increased by about twice. However, there are still some problems in the development of high-tech, mainly including original capacity, lack of innovation capability, and the quality of technological innovation. It is not very high. I think that with the continuous implementation of innovation-driven strategies and the continuous increase in R&D investment, these problems will be solved in the process of development.
Xinhua News Agency, China Economic Information Agency
I have two questions. The first question about real estate, data from January to April, regardless of real estate investment or commercial housing sales area, the sales growth of commercial housing has declined compared to the first quarter. So I would like to explain why There is also the future development trend of real estate; In addition, I observed a figure that the output of new energy vehicles in April increased by 82.2% year-on-year. We know that automobiles are an important part of social consumer goods. So can we introduce the future consumption of new energy vehicles? What's the trend?
Liu Aihua:
The first issue is about real estate investment, sales latest changes and real estate situation. Since the beginning of this year, real estate development investment has maintained a relatively stable growth, from January to April, a year-on-year growth of 10.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1% from the first quarter. In terms of percentage points, it should be said that this fluctuation is normal and does not affect the judgment of the overall smooth running trend of real estate investment. From the current situation, after continuous regulation and control of real estate, the real estate sector is generally stable under the action of in-city policy and local adjustment and control policies. The overall housing prices are also stable. In March, the sales prices of new-commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities decreased year-on-year. The prices of second-hand housing prices fell for the first time in a year-on-year period. The year-on-year growth of second- and third-tier cities in new commodity housing continued to decline, and the destocking performance of third- and third-tier cities decreased. Obviously. From these perspectives, whether it is the price of housing or destocking has achieved positive results, the real estate sector has maintained a relatively stable trend.
From the perspective of future development, in accordance with the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, we will continue to maintain the continuity and stability of the policy, and accelerate the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel protection, and rent-purchase, while accelerating the construction of a long-term real estate mechanism. The role of these policies, the real estate sector is expected to continue to maintain relatively stable growth.
With regard to new energy vehicles, as you mentioned just now, new energy vehicles have seen rapid growth since the beginning of this year. In fact, this rapid growth is not a phenomenon that has only emerged this year. It should have been adopted in recent years as a focus on green development. A series of policy measures to promote the results of green development. Not only new energy vehicles, but also many aspects are reflected. In terms of new energy vehicles, this year promulgated a three-year extension of tax incentives, which also reflects the concept of green development as a whole. More and more people agree that green development products, including new energy vehicles, are more sought after and they are all examples of this concept.
Hong Kong TVB reporter:
Just now you mentioned that the impact of the trade friction between China and the United States has not yet been shown in April. It has no effect. Or does it mean that the impact will show up in the coming months?
Liu Aihua:
Thank you for your question. As I said just now, Sino-US trade negotiations are indeed a hot topic that everyone is very concerned about. I also want to emphasize my point of view. From the perspective of the economic performance in April, the overall economic operation continues to maintain stability. China's economic growth has not been reflected in the Sino-U.S. trade friction. It has never been seen, because there are still many uncertainties that need further observation.