The trend of PTA and ethylene glycol, both of which are polyester raw materials, has recently deviated. After ethylene glycol had risen sharply in the previous period, it soon entered a downward avenue, while PTA ended its downward trend and steadily rose. Why then? What happened?
The figure above shows the comparison chart of ethylene glycol and PTA for the past three weeks. From the chart we can see that ethylene glycol fell sharply from April 25 and then experienced a two-week or so consolidation at the low level. On the 10th of this month, once again Poka fell and the PTA had a very different trend. After the tepid trend ended on May 4, there was a rapid upward trend. The two products were all polyester materials. Such deviations, personal feelings are mainly due to the following reasons.
First of all, the starting point is different. The PTA has been low for a long period of time. There has been no decent market in a few years. However, ethylene glycol has a high degree of trust in imports and is often funded by funds. Therefore, after a sharp rise in the early period, there has been a significant decline. During this period, PTA There has been no obvious follow-up, the market is tepid to consolidate.
Secondly, the trend of PTA-related oil is very obvious, and ethylene glycol is relatively weak. Looking at the current trend, international crude oil has experienced a considerable increase, and it has hit a new high for several years. Related products Aromatic series Following the rise, the price of PX upstream as PTA rose from US$970-980/tonne three weeks ago to US$1020-1030/ton, and rose US$50/ton (converted into RMB 300-400/ton for the people). Although the PTA has increased, but the processing profits have not increased, so the upward space is still large under the impetus of the upstream, while the ethylene-related oil trend is weak, the upstream ethylene prices are also falling, resulting in the cost of ethylene glycol Support is not big.
The third current polyester factory has a considerable profit. Long fiber has a profit of 700-800, short fiber has a profit of 400-500, and bottle chip profit is as high as more than 2000. The higher profit level has increased the interest of the polyester factory. In the recent PTA plant, there was a large number of overhauls. The supply and demand side formed a large support for PTA, while ethylene glycol continued to maintain a high inventory, which formed a clear bearish trend toward ethylene glycol.
From the above situation, the arbitrage transaction of multiple PTA empty glycols can still be carried out, but since the cumulative drop in ethylene glycol has been large, we should pay close attention to the changes in the trend of ethylene glycol.